Floydbuster

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

My post got deleted yesterday (not sure why) but I said thank the lord this things core stayed very small while it was at high intensity and when the wind field expanded it did so mostly on the northern side so offshore winds. This greatly mitigated surge potential. The fear was that after the first ERC this would grow significantly and though it grew, it didn’t really grow that much. It went from tiny to small. That being said, I’m sure there were a few 10’ surge readings, Siesta Key would be my likely ground 0. Still haven’t seen anything from there. That is a devastating surge, it just wasn’t over as broad an area as we feared. As for inland winds, honestly the number of 100+ mph gusts is impressive. Certainly an area with plenty of observation locations but getting 80-90 mph gusts on east coast is super impressive and shows how the jet aided this storm even though the tropical core collapsed. Seeing those extremely strong backside winds almost no rain falling is absolutely a sign this was losing it’s tropical characteristics at landfall and drier air and the collapsing core pulled those winds in and kept them going inland. 
 

Overall, what I’ve seen sounds like intensity was accurate. This was likely verified as a low-end 3. Surge was probably a little less than most majors we’ve seen recently simply bc it had a small core especially in the part that created the surge (southern side). Wind damage is extensive and power outages are extreme. The tornado outbreak was one of the most severe in history for a tropical system. Very damaging major hurricane strike and hoping loss of life was kept to a minimum as Florida is excellent at preparing for these things. 

Agree on the size. I was thinking (and so was the NHC early on) that Milton would become a much larger hurricane. Eventually, the tropical storm wind expanded out, but the hurricane force winds never really grew more than 30 miles or so from the eye. Helene had the hurricane winds extending 60 miles, and Ian had them extending out 50 miles. 

I also think Ian’s 150 mph winds and Helene’s 140 mph winds are a big difference from Milton’s small weakening 115-120 mph winds.

2am video update on Milton for my fellow night owls

https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1844213454875525578

JUST IN: The roof of Tropicana Field, home of the Tampa Bay Rays, has been ripped off

https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1844192985032069124

102 mph wind gust in Sarasota/Bradenton airport

Video update on Milton

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrRLaOpCPso

I am impressed that the weakening slowed so much this evening. Looks like the eye is going a slight northeast wobble right now.

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Yeah, the current heading sure looks heading directly for the mouth of the Bay/Bradenton

Agree. Way north of Charley and Ian. Looks like Tampa might actually have their first direct strike since 1921. 

I'm guessing this comes in around 115 mph. Water still the biggest threat, although these twisters are causing a lot of damage. 

Hurricane force winds still only extend out thirty miles from the center. Wow. I wonder if maybe it will stay smaller and stronger and further south rather than larger and weaker and further north?

They don't seem confident in exact landfall or intensity yet, and I don't blame them. 

I am surprised how small Milton still is, I wonder if that could maybe lessen the extent of the storm surge if it doesn't expand the wind field much in the next 24 hours. 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 89.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

NOAA aircraft "Gonzo" has left Florida, headed to Hurricane Milton.

So if 1921 was the last *direct* hit, would Longboat Key count as a direct hit today?

What a remarkable storm.

1 minute ago, gustmouse said:

5:45 EDT

 

Thanks for the info on our tireless workers!

Uh oh.

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The most favorable period should be tomorrow night into Tuesday.

It does seem to be well organized right around the bursting CDO. I just notice a lot of stable looking air to the north. 

I am not that impressed with Milton tonight. It doesn't seem to be exhausting outflow the way I would like to see for significant overnight intensification. The interaction with the frontal system in the eastern Gulf is also giving it a strange look on satellite. It almost looks like Milton is being undercut or squashed. Anyone else see this?