Floydbuster

https://twitter.com/fmnews__/status/1783980266643431752/photo/1 

Is that debarking on the trees? Good lord.

20 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

weird that you're perceiving a crappy tornado year because ohio has been red hot

The tornadoes that Ohio has seen this year don't even begin to compare with the hype I've seen for severe events the last few months. The way social media acts is insane. 

53 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

It seems to me like the SPC is highlighting risk areas in Days 4-8 more than in the past. That used to be more of a big deal, as it seems like they would only do that for days with a much higher certainty of some kind of severe weather outbreak, and those would end up being more like true "Moderate" risk type days (which are much more infrequent). Now they are highlighting those areas and they don't end up being huge outbreaks, just standard "Slight" or "Enhanced" risk type days. But not significant, like you mention. I think social media is making it worse. There's so many variables and failure modes, that confidence can't be that high at those ranges to start highlighting "Super Outbreaks" headlines that we've seen from some.

Good point. I do see a trend of Thursday-Friday twitter hype for the upcoming Monday-Tuesday work week, and it just dawned on me this seems to keep repeating without any *actual* large events.

Legit question: For several weeks, actually over two months now, my social media feeds have been filled with images of model runs and warnings of severe weather. Soundings and HRRR runs and NAM runs for the upcoming week, etc. etc. Yet week after week passes without any images of tornadoes or tennis ball sized hail or anything half as significant as what I see warned about on social media the week prior. This goes for the Ohio valley, the Great Plains, pretty much anywhere. So my question is...are the models overestimating storms this year? Or am I just on social media filled with salivating amateur storm chasers desperate to get a glimpse of a funnel cloud?

Here comes the meltdown.

45 minutes ago, Chinook said:

We'll have to closely watch both convective lines for supercells and tornadoes, and wind gusts.

 

Worth a watch, but we will see. So far tonight's event out west seems to be underperforming bigtime.

I came to this thread to see if anything was taking place because Twitters weather nuts are strangely quiet and I thought today was going to be insanity...

18 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

That enhanced was such a screw up, there's been more Tor Warnings in the marginal areas down south

I just think this year feels a little more hype driven than past years. Whether or not that's because of La Nina or because of storm chasers being disappointed they haven't had 1974 or 2011 chase seasons, I don't know.

I do feel like everyone is a little too eager to err on the side of enhanced severe threats than the likelihood that they're more scattered. When I'd forecast "the potential for some occasional scattered rumbles of thunder" they're saying things like "Mod risk! Tornado threats! Chase mode!" and I think its way off. I'm speaking less about the official mets and more about social media, although local mets seem to buy into the hype too and that impacts people's opinions when it seems 90% of these go bust. Twitter today is literally post after post of people coming down off their Monday tornado high as the models have significantly backed off as severe a threat for the plains next week, and depression with the likelihood of a cold snap for most of the remaining weeks of April.

My original question was whether there are things they see that make them expect such hellish weather that don't come to fruition, or if it's more that these people are seeing what they want to see? Two very big differences.

7 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

That enhanced was such a screw up, there's been more Tor Warnings in the marginal areas down south

What exactly do these people (SPC, Storm Chasers, Social Media crazies) keep seeing to make them get so bullish on severe risks the last few weeks? 

Literally, twitter had people talking about 1974 outbreak for Ohio last week, now they're talking about May 3, 1999 for the Great Plains/Oklahoma next week. I'm assuming those are rare events. Why is everyone so crazy bullish? 

After these events underperform, what exactly is not occurring that these people keep expecting to happen? Is it not enough instability? Is it not high enough dew points?
 

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

After last week's MDT they really need to tone it down a bit, this isn't WWE. Everything is socked in with rain at the moment, I wouldn't have anything above a slight.

If I'm being honest...forget about the severe threat...I think that even the rainfall forecast may be too aggressive. I'm currently under a dark yellow blob on radar and outside is literally a springtime steady mist-type rain with 5 kt variable winds. I'm wondering if not only is the severe way too overestimated, but whether or not even the rainfall and wind forecast should be lowered. 

Is the yellow blob rain on radar not hitting the ground? What the hell?

8 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

The models keep edging the track of the low farther east.  I'm thinking flooding may be a bigger hazard tomorrow in Ohio than severe, maybe the counties near the WV and PA borders could get some severe action.

Agree. I think many areas especially around Coshocton over towards Pittsburgh have been really waterlogged. 

Here's the 00Z HRRR lightning map. Much less and way south, almost all in West Virginia. I don't see any reason why the SPC will keep such a higher risk, and especially not as far north as it was this afternoon.

5 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

Yep - I'm in the county north of Columbus.  I don't see severe happening here, but ILN still saying that there's a chance.  If it appears that they'll get severe, then I'll go home and work from there.   Easier to work at the office, but would rather have the car in the garage and a basement if necessary

I'm in the Akron area, so you probably have a much higher chance than me. I'm still skeptical though. I think the highest risk would probably be between Chillicothe-Zanesville-Wheeling and south. Infact, I think West Virginia may wanna keep an eye if anything.

1 hour ago, Crowbar said:

Agree - heard a local met on the radio talking about how it may clear out enough to fire up the storms, and that's what they said last week.  Don't see that happening with the amount of rain we're supposed to get. 

Here it comes already and this is just slow moving round one. 

I'm surprised they went with such a high risk. There could be alot of rainfall throughout the day Thursday helping to lower instability in the region, similar to last week. Thankfully, this is much less threatening than last week, however, the focus will be more on flooding rainfall threats.

The NWS says the severe risk is highly dependent on lingering rain and clouds through the day. I think this has a high bust potential.

Rainfall seems like the biggest threat Thursday, and unless I'm mistaken, the area of Central Eastern Ohio in that region west of Pittsburgh has been drenched in the last few weeks.

Just now, vpbob21 said:

Yeah, I thought it would get darker too.  I mean, it was dark, the street lights came on.  But I thought the sky would go completely dark.  As soon as it went total you could already see the sky brightening off to the southwest.  I wonder if it would have been darker if the high clouds wouldn't have been around.

That's what I wondered too. It really wasn't that dark.

The temperature drop near Stow, OH was noticeable. Really shows how something blocking the sun (Super volcanic eruptions, asteroid impacts) can really affect the temperature and fast. I was disappointed that it didn't get darker, and I disliked the douches blowing off fireworks.

It was a very cool to see and experience. The temperature drop was noticeable, although for such totality I was kind of surprised it didn't get darker than it did. Nevertheless, it was great to see. 

7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That is correct. Florence and Floyd were both expected to come in as majors but both weakened significantly (wind wise). Obviously they both had rainfall impacts that exceeded their wind category. I don’t believe in “we’re due” but 1996 was a LONG time ago especially in a state that takes so many hurricane hits

Bonnie 1998 was also close. 

35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Like everyone else, just saw the CSU forecast. Holy moly. I see nothing holding this season back besides luck. Here in NC, we’ve had a lot of that recently so praying it holds. Nuclear SSTs with developing La Niña…. Good luck everyone! Going to be an active year tracking 

Unless my math is wrong, wasn't Fran the last major hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina?

Good grief. 

32 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It's an election year. All other news goes on the back burner.

Ironically, I turn to hurricanes in Summer and Fall to avoid the politics. 

2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

 

When you see "absurdly dangerous" for Ohio, the general public gets terrified and expects nothing less than several F5 twisters roaring across Columbus.