Floydbuster

The last few runs of the GFS show a hurricane threat to Western Florida mid November. 

The GFS continues to show a hurricane near Central America in the next 300 hrs. Likely more 992 mb than 892 mb though...

18 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

Flooding did occur. I just do not have access to anything official yet. Based on images, there was clearly a strong storm surge in the right-front quadrant. Also, the eastern areas of the island did not go unscathed as there was flash flooding off the ridges. But so far, I have not read any official numbers yet on either. Hopefully, as Melissa gained forward speed while crossing the island, mudflows due to flooding were mitigated somewhat. If anyone has anything official, please share.

 

Thankfully Melissa had tighter-wound bands that I expected, so the massive rain amounts were more limited than I expected. 

One or two of the GFS ensembles had a Cat 1 hurricane into SW Florida around November 11th.

14 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29
Location: 19.7°N 76.4°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
 

Dropped a category, I see. I figured they'd at least hold at a 4 since the satellite appearance had recovered this evening. But a few knots difference is paltry.

I read that maybe recon is not finding much to support above 115 mph.

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Recon is going in on a SE to NW pass 

How far can we go until we reach restricted Cuban airspace?

I am amazed at how this thing has never weakened except while crossing Jamaica earlier today. It is an amazing machine of nature.

Reading around, I see that Hurricane Melissa could be the return period storm for the October 1780 "Savanna la Mar hurricane". 3,000 deaths were attributed to the storm just a week or so before the deadliest hurricane in Atlantic History hit the eastern Caribbean.

Note the similar track. I wonder if Melissa is the 245 year return period storm for Jamaica.

I am guessing about 180-185 mph is quite possibly the current intensity.

So would Melissa be 190 mph sustained now?

9 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How has Melissa avoided an ERC for like 3 days now? Someone explain that to me 

Every hurricane is different. I remember in Hurricane Frances back in 2004, she had an eyewall replacement cycle nearly every single day.

Melissa looks like it strengthened a bit the last few hours. Incredible. 

Just now, AStorms13 said:

They did a 8pm EST cone update for some reason. Just released


.

Those are just the 8pm statistics with the 5pm cone. The new cone would come out at 11pm.

Just now, AStorms13 said:

The newest cone update is so much wider…. Lots of uncertainty. This hurricane is nuts


.

What new cone update?

Looking worse and worse for western Jamaica and Montego Bay.

Yeah, I think Melissa is still deepening. Just a violent hurricane. 11am NHC discussion said the NOAA aircraft had to bail out earlier because of the extreme turbulence.