Floydbuster

5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Most, but not all of the 06z GEFS members steer the next system safely out to sea. Threat is not zero but is minimal at this time.

Many do, but some show a much closer Bahamas approach than Lee ever came to.

And now the 12Z GFS has a New England landfall in the long-range. Definitely something to watch regardless.

The long-range GFS has a 1996 scenario with Hurricane Lee taking a track similar to Hurricane Edouard '96 and a new system slamming into North Carolina as the worst strike since Hurricane Fran '96.

This season just feels so much like '96, especially with that constant wave train.

Don't be surprised to see another storm or two off Africa before the Cape Verde season turns off.

Video Update on Lee

The weakening of Lee reminds me a lot of Hurricane Frances in 2004, when it was unexpectedly undercut by shear.

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t tell that to the people and towns in the Bahamas, that got utterly flattened 3 yrs ago…there was nothing left to those poor places. Dorian was a total Monster! 

I agree. I don't think Dorian gets the respect it deserves. 

Interesting that the NHC takes Lee up to 180 mph in 12 hours, I actually got the feeling it might be peaking out tonight before possible future deepening again over the weekend.

4 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Not with SFMR of 145. Tend to need around 150 to get cat 5 with the standard 10% reduction.

Wasn't there discussion after Irma that people put way too much stock into the SFMR?

Just now, Nibor said:

 

 

That infrared loop looks extremely similar to Hurricane Rita in September 2005, when Rita explosively deepened in the Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 96L looks great, my guess is this may be "Margot" already if their is a circulation underneath that bursting convection.

I didn't mean to trigger anyone the other day with my post about climate change alarmists. 

In 2005, 2007, and 2008, I had the privilege of speaking to the late great Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University. He empathized that hurricanes are controlled by things such as the thermohaline circulation, which has an impact on the AMO and hurricane activity. He was adamant about climate change not playing any role, or at least not enough of a role for us to take our eye off using funds towards tools to forecast hurricanes instead of combating climate change.

I guess I've spent the last 15 years trying to take Dr. Gray's advice to heart, given that he was the gold-standard as the lead hurricane forecaster for decades. (If you spoke to Einstein about theoretical physics, would you take his word or the word of someone on Twitter who likely has some kind of agenda?) So I get frustrated when I see people using every developing hurricane as a weapon for any kind of "I told you so" agenda with regards to climate change. Once you hear the facts from someone like Dr. William Gray, I find it difficult for anyone to convince me otherwise. 

The 18Z GFS had a 944 mb hurricane near the Turks and Caicos at 366 hrs, and it's not Lee. 

Continued west motion and a center formation in the near-term could have huge impacts for the U.S. Virgin Islands on determining how close this system may get.

10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

At any rate, it would be easy to get comfortable on the higher probability of OTS with ensembles screaming it. But as is reiterated, we're still well beyond 5 days. Modeling has improved since 2017, but even ensembles swing and miss on MDR systems outside of that window. Just keep in mind that the evolution of the WAR and an ECONUS trough is still not in stone, even if swing back to a rebuilding ridge or cutoff in the eastern interior is trending unlikely. This ensemble from Irma is a reminder that even a strong hurricane may not go polar as fast as initially modeled. We don't even have a TC yet.

Wow did the ensembles really have Irma that far north? I didn't remember that at all.

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro fits in well with the consensus of the last couple of EPS runs with a recurve near 67W and no land hit though it might have gotten close to Bermuda might had the run continued. It is at a very powerful 941 mb at 240!

Anything is possible but everyone seems pretty definitive early on so they may be on to something. Perhaps I should join the bandwagon. I guess I just didn't think the long-range models showed a convincing enough set-up for a system to be quickly swept to sea without at the very least slowing down near the Bahamas. 

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are some on Twitter who are laughing at those concerned about this system. I know it's a long way out and of course we don't even have a depression yet, but I wouldn't be laughing. I actually have a bit more concern about this system potentially moving further west than the typical out to sea track. There are some indications the western Atlantic ridging may begin to rebuild around the time it would be near the Bahamas. Still a long time to watch, though.

Time goes so fast that even though it feels like the islands just got slammed by Irma and Maria, that was already six years ago, a similar time frame from between Hugo 1989 and Luis 1995.

I have a suspicion this one could make it very far west, and potentially be a threat to the Virgin Islands.

TD-11 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose. That means August gave us 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 major Category 4 hurricanes.

Pretty impressive.

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I could have told you that. It was pretty obvious this would be a minor event.

Small cane (low surge potential) that hit a sparsely populated area. Didn't matter how strong it got with the core of intense winds only being a few miles across without no major population centers nearby.  

Idalia reminded me a lot of Hurricane Dennis in 2005. Very small core, weakening at landfall in the Florida panhandle. In fact, Dennis made landfall with 115 mph winds (lowered from 120 mph operationally) and a pressure of 946 mb. 

I think Idalia may have been more in the 115-120 mph range at landfall, rather than the operational assessment of 125 mph. The pressure also rose to around 949 mb, similar to Dennis, and the surge was nasty and similar, but Dennis hit a more populated area of the Florida panhandle than Idalia struck. 

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

I've had no power for 6 hours. About 1/3 of the area lost power. Otherwise, thank goodness we got pretty lucky compared to how bad I thought the winds might get based on earlier NHC forecasts. The highest official wind gust was near 52 mph and there were only a few near that high. But had those forecasts held, we likely would have had gusts into the 60s, which would have meant more trees down and a bigger mess.
 

 I was comparing Idalia with 2016's Hermine, which peaked at 80 mph/981 mb 5 hours before FL landfall near where Idalia hit. It went steady state through landfall rather than either further strengthening or weakening. From landfall, it took a near identical NE path to a little W of Savannah. Per the archives at closest approach Hermine was at 31.9N, 82.0W..55 mi WSW of Sav and 989 mb/50 mph. (It was moving NE at 18 mph.)

 To compare, Idalia was at 32.2N, 81.7W or 40 mi W of Sav with 984 mb/70 mph. (It was moving a similar NE at 21 mph.)

 So, they were at a similar distance away at their closest but Idalia was noted to have 20 mph higher winds (70 vs 50).

 What's really strange is that Hermine produced 6 mph stronger winds than Idalia!

 From Hermine wiki:

"Hermine weakened while crossing from Florida into Georgia, but still produced sustained winds of 45 mph at Savannah, with gusts to 58 mph."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine#:~:text=Hermine weakened while crossing from,(93 km%2Fh).

 Idalia's highest sustained/gust at Savannah were 6 mph lower with 39 sustained/gusts to 52. I remember clearly that Hermine was significantly stronger. And keep in mind that Idalia landfalled at 125 mph vs Hermine's only 80.

 I'm thankful but also amazed at the comparison.

 Any thoughts from anyone about this comparison?

Weakening hurricanes have winds that just ain't bursting down the surface the way strengthening hurricanes are. 

I'm not convinced Idalia will get that much stronger. The eye seems so small that it almost looks ready to peak, IMO.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 84.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

Up to 125 mph. Not quite a Cat 4 yet.

Look at that core!