Floydbuster

Wow this thing looks like a solid Cat 4 hurricane. Amazing!

Just now, jm1220 said:

But it doesn’t need much time at all to really bomb from here if everything’s finally figured out. And if anything it might be bad timing since there isn’t time for an EWRC to get underway. 

Remember though, Michael had zero fall troughs in the southern U.S. until mid-October, and that water was primed. 

Helene looks very ominous on visible. Don't rule out a Category 4.

I may be dating myself a bit...but it is disturbing to me how much Helene looks like Hurricane Opal of 1995.

OPAL

HELENE

I just hope Helene isn't doing what Michael did, which was basically to stay in check until the final 12-15 hours and then begin to explode.

Some good news: If Helene's eyewall with major hurricane winds strikes an area like Dog Island, it is a very, very unpopulated region. In fact, if you were going to have a major hurricane strike the Gulf Coast of the United States in the 21st century, this is one of the areas that would likely have the least amount of damage and population on the coastline.

Any videos out from the coast showing any impacts yet?

Helene is building, but I guess I'm honestly not impressed yet. I want to see a definitive, well formed low level center and get a handle on any possible Yucatan interaction. It doesn't have as much time as others to organize, so the longer it takes, the better for Florida.

I got the sense from the NHC discussion that they don't seem very impressed with the system tonight. The discussion to me read rather "meh". Surprising, given the likelihood of a major hurricane landfall. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it (literally).

Let it be Helene, Joyce or Kirk. No more I names.

These kids born into the post-Katrina world are spoiled rotten. 

I remember tracking Hurricane Season 2000 when I was a teenager. We didn't even heat up until late September with Hurricanes Isaac, Joyce and Keith. No hurricanes in July, let alone Category 5 storms. No hurricanes hit America in 2000 or 2001. 

The U.S. saw no hurricane landfalls between the day after my 11th birthday (Irene, 1999) and a week and a half before my 14th birthday (Lili, 2002). When you are a teenager tracking hurricanes, 11 to 14 years old is a long time. I had plenty of Caribbean action like Keith, Iris and Michelle...but no hurricanes between Irene and Lili for the U.S. coastline. 

These kids have had three hurricanes strike America within a few weeks, and they still cry. I feel like an old grump. 

The ensembles of both the GFS and EURO are showing two systems in the next week or so. One coming from the Southwest Caribbean, threatening the Yucatan, Cuba, Cayman Islands and Florida or the Gulf Coast, while another system forms off Africa. 

I just looked at data stations and the pressure gradient looks tighter than I expected with how sheared it has become. Looks like Francine has a solid core.