Floydbuster

Good grief!

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I was hoping Josh would be there. Just to see footage from this. Going to be unreal. If anyone could pull it off, it would be him. Thanks everyone for looking into the radar situation. Too bad we have nothing to look at from that perspective but man this satellite imagery is wow. 

Sadly, he was caught too off guard and won't be chasing Otis. Damn shame, too. I can't imagine, but like I told him on Twitter, it's Mother Nature's way of keeping him humble.

000
WTPZ63 KNHC 250400
TCUEP3

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL
STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen.
The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph
(270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to
remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3 99.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Just may not have the funding like we do from government for NOAA. I mean look how outdated Canada's radars are. Not to get off topic. Would love to see Otis on radar. Also hoping for some HH footage. 

Josh Morgerman said that he was caught off guard and wouldn't be able to chase Otis. But he's been silent for over 8 hrs on Twitter...and I wonder if he did a quickie and is headed down there.

It's possible, he's one of the best.

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

I found a few sites that made it seem like I could view a radar from there but then loaded nothing. They also are really in the thick of it now so may be having issues. 

I just find it hard to believe that a major metropolitan city of one million people wouldn't have a radar site in 2023. 

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Is there any radar data to look at? Been searching but having 0 luck

I thought Acapulco had a radar site, but I've been searching too and unable to find it.

Ditto on the Western Caribbean. The ensembles of the EURO and GEFS continue to show low pressure around the first week of November.

Holy cow look at that symmetry! 

46 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Shear. Development? Sure. But a long duration hurricane? Very unsure.. A few clicks west, even now, and this vortex gets shredded. And any amount of poor modeling of that shear axis might still not account for it getting shredded tomorrow. For a hurricane, Tammy has been living on the edge. It has remained just barely east of some very strong shear values and has kept pulsing just enough to maintain its open eyewall. Even the more NNW turn likely kept the mid-level circulation from being decapitated tonight. I never expected Tammy to become a hurricane, and I definitely didn't think it would remain one this long.

That being said, the title could use a bit of an edit, @Ed, snow and hurricane fan

 

 

After Philippe made it all the way to Barbuda, I became slightly more bullish on Tammy making it further west. 

I often find myself a little more bullish in general with regards to October hurricanes. I've seen many systems struggle until they near the Caribbean and then find a more safe harbor for development. Iris 2001, Lili 2002, Tomas 2010, etc. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Maybe not so soon to be forgotten? The 0Z UKMET has a mainly westbound to WNW moving Tammy hours 120-168:

HURRICANE TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 61.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2023 0 17.5N 61.5W 999 48
1200UTC 22.10.2023 12 18.7N 62.4W 1003 45
0000UTC 23.10.2023 24 19.8N 63.5W 1003 41
1200UTC 23.10.2023 36 20.8N 63.7W 1004 39
0000UTC 24.10.2023 48 21.7N 63.8W 1004 36
1200UTC 24.10.2023 60 22.1N 63.5W 1004 37
0000UTC 25.10.2023 72 21.2N 64.2W 1004 29
1200UTC 25.10.2023 84 21.4N 63.3W 1003 30
0000UTC 26.10.2023 96 21.7N 62.2W 1001 31
1200UTC 26.10.2023 108 23.5N 61.7W 999 37
0000UTC 27.10.2023 120 24.9N 61.7W 999 41
1200UTC 27.10.2023 132 25.9N 63.7W 999 39
0000UTC 28.10.2023 144 26.6N 66.8W 998 40
1200UTC 28.10.2023 156 26.2N 69.4W 997 36
0000UTC 29.10.2023 168 26.4N 71.2W 1000 37

I thought the name of this thread was a little imbecilic anyways. I knew this could be a hurricane and could get close to the islands. I don't know why so many were so immediately negative on development chances. The wave was strong, model guidance supported development, and we've had 20 named storms this hurricane season.

Quite a nasty lashing for Barbuda, still an obvious far cry from Irma

Hurricane Tammy has strengthened a bit up to 80 mph as the core gets close to Martinique and Dominica. 

Seems like four scenarios thus far:

• 1. Strong major hurricane (like Lee) taking track north of islands
• 2. Strong major hurricane striking islands
• 3. Weaker storm/hurricane (Like Nigel and Philippe) taking track north of islands
• 4. Weaker storm (Like Bret) striking islands 

Wow do those EURO ensembles make Invest 94L a monster hurricane in the Caribbean. 

As long as Philippe dissipates by the Caribbean and doesn't bring some kind of vorticity into the Northwest Caribbean. 

I suspect we still have more activity to come. 

This will be designated Tropical Storm Nigel at 11pm.

It's still amazing how far Lee made it considering it developed so far east and became so intense. All the way off Maine is pretty far west for a Cape Verde hurricane. 

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hint of it on the Euro too. 

Given the overall pattern, any MDR stuff is getting kicked. If there are going to be any other US impacts, it'll come from a homebrew system IMO. Probably will be good for one to three between now and October 20. 

Still would watch the waves that progress west towards the Caribbean. I remember Hurricane Iris in October 2001 came from a heavily sheared wave in the eastern and central Atlantic that eventually made it into the Caribbean Sea.

Video Update on Lee

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fiR9IOZnBE

For how bad Lee looks on satellite, recon still shows this is a very powerful hurricane. Easy 100 mph and large.