Floydbuster

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Got a little under 3” with the synoptic snow through early afternoon and about 2” more with the lake enhanced snow this evening. Probably will get a bit more overnight and it’s blowing around a fair bit right now. Not a bad little event. 

Yeah the totals were not as crazy as they could have been given that I think the event performed better than most expected early Sunday morning. Those were some large big wet flakes.

For areas here in NE OH, I think the worst snows most of us every remember usually came from Lake Effect events. The Friday after New Years Eve, January 3rd, was the worst snow I have seen all year, and it was a Lake Effect snow band. Folks on here invest too much into storms tracking from lows across the Midwest, and then you have to get into the exact position of the low, or the amount of dry air, etc. etc.

Lake Effect is where it's at.

Some of the Ohio WX folks on X are depressed because of too much dry air. I always thought they were overhyping this as usual. 

This is what is great about being a hurricane guy. If the models are correct, we get a Category 4 hurricane. If the models are incorrect, we get a Category 5.

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

This cold has been nothing special so far. YYZ has only gotten lows below -10C or 14F 6 days this month. For reference, we got below -10C/14F, 21 days in Jan 2022 and 14 days in Feb 2021. Our seasonal average low is 13F right now. 

The lakes are still running above average and with a lack of proper snow cover, it is hindering our ability to cool down or stay cold. 

Lack of any extreme cold or cold rivaling prior winters like Jan 2022 or Feb 2021 + a lack of any storms + the daily 0.3" and constant cloud cover, makes this winter close to a disaster. 

Down here in NE Ohio, they seem to have come down significantly compared to what some models showed a week ago. Those models were showing -20, -30 wind chills. Now the forecasts don't show anywhere near those types of lows, thankfully. Still cold, maybe a -10 here and there in the wee hours of Tuesday or Wednesday morning, but nothing like what was expected a week ago.

56 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Nice overperforming, fluffy lake effect event. I'm nearing 6"! 

My mother was in Medina earlier and said it was a whiteout. Of course down here near Akron, it was completely clear of any snow. 

Cold Watch for our area here in Ohio. Thankfully, I have noticed some of the models trending slightly less cold than a few days ago. Still negative wind chills, but more -8 than -25, hopefully. It seems to move out by Thursday and Friday, thank goodness.

20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I get to the end of all these model runs....360hrs out...expecting to see the beginning of the collapse of the cold, (especially looking at where the indices are headed), and yet the cold just keeps reloading in Canada.

It differs back and forth. There is a nice little warmup around two weeks from now, and the earlier GFS runs today showed much more mild by first week of February compared to what we have been seeing.

43 minutes ago, NEOH said:

It has been snowing here since 5am... close to 1" already. 

Your area is likely in the strip of highest potential.

I just know the word of mouth with people has been about the “Thursday snow”. You gotta understand, the way things get hyped, anything less than 4+ inches will be seen as “they overhyped it” by social media and non weather folk.

So far this snow doesn't seem to be reaching the ground in some areas of NE Ohio, despite hours of snowing on radar. It looks like the air is very dry, maybe it is impeding the moisture.

Twitter weenies sharing long range temperature anomaly maps and scaring the heck out of regular folk. 

38 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

started snowing around 7pm after 20hrs of virga lol

I read this as viagra and was totally like WTF 

Good grief, that was way more intense LES than I expected, especially towards the secondary snowbelts. I was traveling through Macedonia towards Akron Friday night and it was horrible. Then the future radar continued to show the snow ending and then it just continued going and going and going. 

I am surprised at the intensity of some of these snow bands.

34 minutes ago, OHweather said:

We still are on the outside looking in for heavier snow, but there's at least half decent potential for lighter snow up here. Would like to see any model other than the GFS show a more northerly solution to get excited. There could be interesting LES potential around Wednesday next week. Ice won't be prohibitive by that point, but will be starting to expand, especially across the western basin. 

The local Cleveland networks show different predicted totals. Chardon could get up to 8 inches while Akron could get up to 2 inches over the entire weekend. That makes for a huge difference in impact for regular non weather folks depending on where they are located who always expect a massive snow event. I have a feeling this one could be very localized and dependent on where the individual bands set up.

Down by Akron our estimates are usually a little overestimated so I will expect more in the range of 2 to 3 inches down here.

15 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Interesting system incoming. It will be nice to get snow a lot farther inland with this event! Outside of a Lake Huron connection into NW PA I am skeptical of huggggge totals, but with the wind, falling temps, and occasional squalls it will be quite wintry for a larger area. I do not see how we avoid an all-out blizzard in Erie County PA tomorrow. 

I am closer to Akron, but the local NWS seems to have backed off a bit on winds thankfully.

Nevertheless, areas northeast towards Geauga, and Lake counties could still see some accumulations. I am a little surprised at the hype about this one, and I wonder how much of it has to do with the insane accumulations seen in Ashtabula last week. 

57 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Nothing too exciting on the horizon, but most of Ohio should see at least a few flakes in the air Thursday into early Friday and a few spots may see a light/slushy accumulation. Just enough to remind us that we're deep into November already. 

Yeah I think it will be a good reminder that winter is soon upon us, but nothing overly significant. 

38 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

So 2024 already has the earliest cat 5 on record.  Anyone know what the latest cat 5 is of now?

Edit: nevermind, it was easy to look up. There's only been one cat 5 ever in November on record. 1932 Cuba hurricane was a cat 5 on November 6. So this could break that record if it does reach that intensity.

1932 was the year my Grandmother was born. She is 92 years old. Her name is Sara. 

I am bullish on this one...

I wouldn't doubt another system in mid to late November. This is a definite backlogged hurricane season.

Storm surge is different because of so many factors. I remember we didn't see the dreaded storm surge with Hurricane Charley, even though it hit Charlotte Harbor, FL as a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane, because it was so tiny, fast moving and was only a Category 4 for about two hours prior to landfall. Hurricane Ian was the same intensity and the exact same landfall location, but was much, much larger in size, slower moving, and had hours and hours as a Category 4 and 5 to build the disastrous storm surge.