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Floydbuster

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    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Good grief, that was way more intense LES than I expected, especially towards the secondary snowbelts. I was traveling through Macedonia towards Akron Friday night and it was horrible. Then the future radar continued to show the snow ending and then it just continued going and going and going. 

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    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, OHweather said:

    We still are on the outside looking in for heavier snow, but there's at least half decent potential for lighter snow up here. Would like to see any model other than the GFS show a more northerly solution to get excited. There could be interesting LES potential around Wednesday next week. Ice won't be prohibitive by that point, but will be starting to expand, especially across the western basin. 


    The local Cleveland networks show different predicted totals. Chardon could get up to 8 inches while Akron could get up to 2 inches over the entire weekend. That makes for a huge difference in impact for regular non weather folks depending on where they are located who always expect a massive snow event. I have a feeling this one could be very localized and dependent on where the individual bands set up.

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, OHweather said:

    Interesting system incoming. It will be nice to get snow a lot farther inland with this event! Outside of a Lake Huron connection into NW PA I am skeptical of huggggge totals, but with the wind, falling temps, and occasional squalls it will be quite wintry for a larger area. I do not see how we avoid an all-out blizzard in Erie County PA tomorrow. 

    I am closer to Akron, but the local NWS seems to have backed off a bit on winds thankfully.

    Nevertheless, areas northeast towards Geauga, and Lake counties could still see some accumulations. I am a little surprised at the hype about this one, and I wonder how much of it has to do with the insane accumulations seen in Ashtabula last week. 

    Tropical Storm Sara

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

    So 2024 already has the earliest cat 5 on record.  Anyone know what the latest cat 5 is of now?

    Edit: nevermind, it was easy to look up. There's only been one cat 5 ever in November on record. 1932 Cuba hurricane was a cat 5 on November 6. So this could break that record if it does reach that intensity.

     

    1932 was the year my Grandmother was born. She is 92 years old. Her name is Sara. 

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    Hurricane Milton Banter

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Storm surge is different because of so many factors. I remember we didn't see the dreaded storm surge with Hurricane Charley, even though it hit Charlotte Harbor, FL as a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane, because it was so tiny, fast moving and was only a Category 4 for about two hours prior to landfall. Hurricane Ian was the same intensity and the exact same landfall location, but was much, much larger in size, slower moving, and had hours and hours as a Category 4 and 5 to build the disastrous storm surge.

    Major Hurricane Milton

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    My post got deleted yesterday (not sure why) but I said thank the lord this things core stayed very small while it was at high intensity and when the wind field expanded it did so mostly on the northern side so offshore winds. This greatly mitigated surge potential. The fear was that after the first ERC this would grow significantly and though it grew, it didn’t really grow that much. It went from tiny to small. That being said, I’m sure there were a few 10’ surge readings, Siesta Key would be my likely ground 0. Still haven’t seen anything from there. That is a devastating surge, it just wasn’t over as broad an area as we feared. As for inland winds, honestly the number of 100+ mph gusts is impressive. Certainly an area with plenty of observation locations but getting 80-90 mph gusts on east coast is super impressive and shows how the jet aided this storm even though the tropical core collapsed. Seeing those extremely strong backside winds almost no rain falling is absolutely a sign this was losing it’s tropical characteristics at landfall and drier air and the collapsing core pulled those winds in and kept them going inland. 
     

    Overall, what I’ve seen sounds like intensity was accurate. This was likely verified as a low-end 3. Surge was probably a little less than most majors we’ve seen recently simply bc it had a small core especially in the part that created the surge (southern side). Wind damage is extensive and power outages are extreme. The tornado outbreak was one of the most severe in history for a tropical system. Very damaging major hurricane strike and hoping loss of life was kept to a minimum as Florida is excellent at preparing for these things. 

     

    Agree on the size. I was thinking (and so was the NHC early on) that Milton would become a much larger hurricane. Eventually, the tropical storm wind expanded out, but the hurricane force winds never really grew more than 30 miles or so from the eye. Helene had the hurricane winds extending 60 miles, and Ian had them extending out 50 miles. 

    I also think Ian’s 150 mph winds and Helene’s 140 mph winds are a big difference from Milton’s small weakening 115-120 mph winds.

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