Floydbuster

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Probably a little of both. The comparisons to 1974 and other ultra high-end outbreaks were ridiculous. This had nothing in common with those other than the general area at risk. Vastly different mid-upper level setup than that which has historically produced the top-tier outbreaks.

I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. It even scared me a little and I live near Cleveland/Akron!

6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, even on another weather forum I suggested that some people throttle back the hype train a couple days ago, mainly due to the consistently progged steep positive tilt of the main trough and had them jump down my throat because "p0siTivELy tilteD TROughS can STIlL pr0duCe MajoR TOrNaDO events."

Well, yeah...BUT it is a lot less likely than with neutral to negatively tilted troughs. I can't confidently say that the mitigating factors we saw with today (and yesterday's) events were direct results of the positively tilted trough, but some (such as boundary-parallel flow promoting junk convection, and the best forcing and cold air aloft lagging behind the warm sector, seem to be common to them.

Do you think there was any particular reason why weather twitter went so crazy hype with this event? What made this one so insanely hyped? Was it the 50th anniversary of Xenia? Was it that these kids have gone so long without chasing they were wishing? 

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 In June of 1990 a flash flood from a thunderstorm killed 26 people in shadyside ohio.  The nws was ravaged for not having any kind of watch up.   For what seemed like the rest of that summer…every time storms were in the forecast they issued flood watches.   It was definitely cya.  Maybe a little of that today as well?

I'm not trying to cast any aspersions. I felt kind of bad for the relentless ripping the NWS took on social media. 

This was always more of an event for Kentucky and only extreme SW Ohio. To be honest, West Virginia seems to have been hit harder than any other place, and there was little focus. Was it because all the "storm chasers" live in Central Ohio? They didn't want to "chase" into rougher Appalachian terrain?

Other than a few scary model runs on Mon morning, there shouldn't have been such cause for alarm in Central Ohio.

I'm not downplaying the damage that we've seen and the tornados that have occurred, but I'm being honest, the twitter feed acted like the tornadoes would be F4 stovepipes ripping through Central Ohio in a 1974-type outbreak. I think Monday April 1st was some of the most insane weather/storm chaser hype I've ever seen on social media. Maybe these kids were just so overeager to chase they inflated it in their own mind? 

1 minute ago, Crowbar said:

Certainly hope it was more due to the overperformance from a couple weeks ago, as it's a pretty sad state of affairs if they caved to pressure from social media.  I was wondering why we stayed in a moderate risk after all of the rain that we had overnight and this morning, then the one early this afternoon.  The TV mets who were on the radio were still saying that we were in a moderate risk this afternoon, but the sun wasn't out that long today for any destabilizing to occur.  Totally understand that it's not an exact science, but never saw where the necessary factors would be in play up here.  

It's hard to find objectivity on social media when a meteorologist says, "Looks like a slow recovery time, looking less intense" and someone responds "Sun is out now! LOOK OUT! Recovery incoming!" Or when they say "I think Zanesville, OH will be ground zero" and then look at their account and find out they live near Zanesville.

That's what is nice about living in Ohio and being a hurricane guy. I have no vested interest in hurricanes. When I live in Cleveland/Akron, what the hell do I care if a hurricane makes landfall in Tampico, MX vs Veracruz, MX? I am able to be objective. 

14 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

 

You'd think that could have been predicted - everyone was saying that the morning convection would suck out the energy, but NWS continued to say that the paramaters were in place for a major severe event.   Realize that some are getting severe weather, but up this way it was a lot worse last night and this monring.  Should have known it would be a bust up here when they let school out 90 minutes early. 

Well other than the early Monday morning HRRR and NAM nightmares showing a possible big outbreak *perhaps* getting to Central Ohio, there was always the likelihood that it would be worse down near the Ohio River and Kentucky.

When the moderate risk was held over that area, there was a massive social media twitter meltdown among the amateur storm chaser nerds. They were attacking some forecaster named Broyles or something and going nuts. Then you had the long discussions and a tardy issuance of the moderate risk Mon afternoon smack dab over Central Ohio, way too far north without more model run indicators. By Monday evening, it was obvious that should be moved southwest, which it eventually was.

I know this seems unlikely, but is there a chance that the moderate risk was issued out of pressure from the social media freakout and the overperformance of the March Western Ohio tornado event?

Northern Ohio looking much lower risk. 

A Kentucky event?

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

welcome to the fusion of social media and meterology.

My daughter, who has zero interest in weather sent me a text asking how worried she should be because it's all over social media that 'we're gonna have a bad tornado today'....  lol

Well atleast you're a bit closer to the action. Imagine having people freakout who live closer to Erie than Cincinnati. 

Still wind chill at 49° with rain here in NE Ohio. 

I'm trying to sift through wishcasters and forecasters on Twitter. Forecasters seem to think the moisture is lacking and the recovery time isn't as long as it could have been. Wishcasters seem to think it's going to be the 1974 Super Outbreak. Unfortunately, they're scaring the heck out of people.

Literally a PHD tries to say it could be sporadically nasty, and then we get people talking about 1974.

We'll see how the recovery goes out west. Bloomington, Cincinnati, Louisville, Frankfurt seem most in the line of fire.

Southward adjustments. Better for northern and northeast Ohio. 

Thankfully the moderate was shifted south slightly more away from Northeast OH where I live. In fact, I'm on the edge of marginal, slight and enhanced now. The local NWS in Akron actually removed the words "severe" from our forecast and replaced with "showers and thunderstorms". Probably not expecting the warm front to drape as far north as some thought 24 hrs ago. Here's hoping that continues and isn't as bad for those higher risk areas down south.

5 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Considerable uncertainty, largely driven by ongoing/earlier-day convection, is definitely a familiar feeling for the Ohio Valley. There certainly is higher-end tornado potential if a portion of the warm sector is relatively clear and can recover through at least the mid-afternoon, and I feel like that's more likely than not to occur somewhere in the vicinity of central/southern IN, western/southern OH, and perhaps adjacent northern KY. Where exactly that occurs and how large of an area it is are certainly in question. 

From a messaging perspective this is kind of brutal...I'd consider northern and even central (especially east-central) OH to be on the fringe. If ongoing convection and clouds clear quickly enough there's still a viable scenario where those areas recover enough to have a threat, and given the amount of shear in place that needs to be messaged. However, it's also possible that little happens on that northeastern fringe. We've already gone all-in with a tornado-driven moderate risk, so while I'm personally hoping for (and sort of leaning towards) nothing too noteworthy happening in the Cleveland metro and my immediate vicinity just south of Cleveland, a total whiff in the northern/eastern half of Ohio would be a strike against public trust in the severe wx forecasts. 

It doesn't help that there is so much hyperbole (and I never use that word) on social media. I have had a few text messages from Clevelanders thinking F5 twisters are going to level Cleveland, Akron and Youngstown tomorrow. I had to explain to them that the threat was almost all south of the area, and that there was still uncertainty.

Today's (Monday) hype was quite possibly the most I've ever seen for a severe weather event, at least for Ohio.

Kentucky/Tennessee? Maybe?

Twitter is discussing how models are trending down for Central OH, and really for the whole event trending less intense. 

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I was thinking the same thing.   Usually you see adjustments 25 or 50 miles this way or that way....  but that change is like an entirely different forecast.   

So I'll have to see if my anecdotal theory holds.   I've always said the most hyped events around here tend to fall apart while the most significant events, (ie the one a couple weeks back) come out of nowhere.

Twitter world seems to be saying that models are adjusting to a slower moving system with most energy closer to the IN/OH/KY three-corners region. Expect adjustments. 

16 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Well a couple weeks ago the SPC didn't move it north and an EF2 tornado drove right by my house and took out a 25 mile stretch of homes and barns. plus all the damage further north because they thought the same thing. look to be in the danger zone again.

That sucks, man. Sorry to hear that. Hopefully any bad ones stay south of you. You'll be close to the line. Anything will probably be south of 71, but hopefully it stays further south than that and you avoid nasty stuff.

My twitter feed is filled with Southern OH chasers crying that the SPC didn't move it further north. I think the rain ahead will limit instability, especially further north. Perhaps there's a slight chance some stronger storms make it as far north as Columbus and Zanesville, but I think the line will arch east-southeast and that's why the SPC is more focused on Kentucky.

Looks like some slight snow potential on Wednesday, but things *could* be clear my Monday April 8th for the eclipse. 

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The equinox was only a week ago, lol.

I mean "springtime" figuratively speaking. Most people consider "springtime" pretty much Valentine's Day to Memorial Day. March has flown by. 

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Well, I am a chaser and I do love severe weather, but I advocate for restraint on social media hype unless/until there is actually good model agreement/consistency for a high-ceiling threat.

I agree, and when I see people who want tornadoes in Chicago hyping what would likely be a severe event for Arkansas and Tennessee, it's cringey. 

49 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Every time Weed sees a trough on the models, he drives the social media hype train out of the station at full throttle, derails, crashes, and burns.

I remain skeptical of this timeframe due to inconsistency between models/runs. Could it turn into something big? Sure, but IMO it's just as likely at this point to be a relatively modest event with a lot of rain/general thunderstorms and some isolated severe weather.

I'm a hurricane guy so I'm not seasoned in severe weather and I don't storm chase but these people are drooling and begging for a severe event. Spring is flying by and they're going bonkers.

It's actually quite annoying.