Floydbuster

If Cleveland/Akron winds up with 50-60 mph wind gusts and 5-8 inches of snow, that'll be one heck of a storm.

21 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Ha. Who knows at this point. What a tough storm to forecast. Sounds like the models will have full sampling later today. Hopefully the eastern trends continue. I think the trajectory of the low as it passes by will have a big impact on lake enhancement snowfall behind the low. 

This is why I stick to hurricanes. Winter weather is much more confusing and touchy.

What's the trend for NE Ohio? Less snow? More snow? If those winds are gusting as strong as they say, the wind chills are going to be brutal.

Nice write-up, Steve. Everyone here is worried about ramifications on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-202115-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
403 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Active weather is expected Friday through the weekend. Widespread
cold temperatures and strong winds are expected, with wind chills
below zero likely. Accumulating snow is also possible. Stay tuned to
the latest forecast as this wintry situation unfolds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

Cleveland NWS doesn't seem enthusiastic about accumulated snowfall.

000
WTNT62 KNHC 100800
TCUAT2

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
300 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA JUST SOUTH 
OF VERO BEACH...

Radar imagery from Miami and Melbourne shows the center of Nicole 
has made landfall on the east coast of the Florida peninsula on 
North Hutchinson Island just south of Vero Beach.  The maximum 
sustained winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h), and the 
minimum central pressure is estimated to be 981 mb (28.97 inches).

This will be the last hourly update given the degraded radar 
structure of Nicole.

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 80.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

32 ft waves reported from the buoy off Cape Canaveral.

Unless it's a trick of the eyes, I see a more northwest wobble the last hour.

This is a rare event. I believe Nicole will be one of only three November hurricanes to strike Florida in 100 years.

10:30pm EST Video Update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WFEdiLeNTU

Reminds me of when Frances had a large ragged eye on the east coast back in 2004. Not nearly as strong, of course.

Nicole will strengthen over the Gulf Stream, especially with the tighter core.

11am video for those interested https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTYA6J2897s

14 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

I wish I had archived that Unisys track database fully as only the front page had been crawled to Wayback and 1 other before they turfed it along with some maps. I noticed that Yankee and Kate hurricanes are in that Unisys track map format which was always my favorite. I did locate them on different random sites but was there another source of more? Other formats are so unappealing I'd rather just have the software myself.

I found them on google images. Trust me, I'm the exact same way. I used to spend hours and hours going through those Unisys tracks. I miss them.

I still think we don't see much consolidation until Wednesday.

Video Update on Nicole

4 hours ago, yoda said:

TS Martin is here for about 48 hours 

Looks like the NHC is thinking this becomes another hurricane. Assuming Lisa doesn't have time to reach Category 3, that would put us at 13/7/2.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df-e275mWqs
 

Looks like two November hurricanes. I've been preaching all year about these La Nina seasons being active so much later. I've just been surprised we haven't seen a major hurricane in October. 

I'm still not taking my eye off the Caribbean until the end of November. La Nina years require extra vigilance watching.

If the system in the Atlantic steals the name "Lisa", then this Caribbean hurricane would become "Martin", which was the replacement name for late-season Caribbean "Matthew", which was the replacement name for late-season Caribbean "Mitch".