Floydbuster

Let it be Helene, Joyce or Kirk. No more I names.

These kids born into the post-Katrina world are spoiled rotten. I remember tracking Hurricane Season 2000 when I was a teenager. We didn't even heat up until late September with Hurricanes Isaac, Joyce and Keith. No hurricanes in July, let alone Category 5 storms. No hurricanes hit America in 2000 or 2001. The U.S. saw no hurricane landfalls between the day after my 11th birthday (Irene, 1999) and a week and a half before my 14th birthday (Lili, 2002). When you are a teenager tracking hurricanes, 11 to 14 years old is a long time. I had plenty of Caribbean action like Keith, Iris and Michelle...but no hurricanes between Irene and Lili for the U.S. coastline. These kids have had three hurricanes strike America within a few weeks, and they still cry. I feel like an old grump.

The ensembles of both the GFS and EURO are showing two systems in the next week or so. One coming from the Southwest Caribbean, threatening the Yucatan, Cuba, Cayman Islands and Florida or the Gulf Coast, while another system forms off Africa.

I just looked at data stations and the pressure gradient looks tighter than I expected with how sheared it has become. Looks like Francine has a solid core.

That evening convective burst might just send Francine over the edge into hurricane status.

What is with all of the trolling in this thread?

Wow nice shape, Francine!

GFS continues to show a wave leaving Africa in about 3 days or so, becoming a violent Luis type hurricane strike on the Leeward or Virgin Islands. Starting to gain my interest.

https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1831684630858154451

We already have had one destructive memorable hurricane, for sure. Some years don't produce any. I'm quite confident the name Beryl will be retired.

We shall see. Still a bit north though. I really think the ITCZ being so far north is a big factor in why August was quiet.

Agree on the numbers, but 2013 didn't even produce a U.S. hurricane landfall or a single storm above Category 1 intensity. I never thought this year would exhaust the name list. Those years are exceptionally rare.

There is still time to have more activity, but I am stunned at how silent August was given the odds of such high hyperactivity, especially after a Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean the first week of July. The 2013 comparisons are not well advised, given that we have already had a Category 5 storm, and two United States hurricane landfalls. Even if nothing else occurred, this season well outpaces that one.

Time to commit hurricane seppuku. I was wrong, unless the wave leaving Africa or in the Central Atlantic becomes a significant major hurricane threat.

I absolutely still expect a very busy season, I'm just curious after the waves in July that led to Beryl, Debby and Ernesto being so low latitude as to why it occurred so suddenly once Ernesto formed. I also think the MJO in mid September may light things alive quite a bit.

It is the ITCZ absolutely shunting and blowing waves apart to the north. What the heck is going on?