wokeupthisam

"Through early morning fog I see, the visions of what is to be "The snows that are withheld from me "I realize and I can see... "The torches are relentless, and winters are eventless "And I can't take or leave it, it's CC..."

46F and .46" Sympatico

Seems reasonable... Persistence Method (http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fcst/mth/prst.rxml) today equals tomorrow "There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the Persistence Method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. The persistence method works well when weather patterns change very little and features on the weather maps move very slowly. It also works well in places like southern California, where summertime weather conditions vary little from day to day. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use. It may also appear that the persistence method would work only for shorter-term forecasts (e.g. a forecast for a day or two), but actually one of the most useful roles of the persistence forecast is predicting long range weather conditions or making climate forecasts. For example, it is often the case that one hot and dry month will be followed by another hot and dry month. So, making persistence forecasts for monthly and seasonal weather conditions can have some skill. Some of the other forecasting methods, such as numerical weather prediction, lose all their skill for forecasts longer than 10 days. This makes persistence a "hard to beat" method for forecasting longer time periods." ...of course the persistence method works well, until it doesn't ; )

29.8F heavy heavy

First time seeing with the naked eye, spectacular, phone pics really wild. Different colors from deep blue, to purple, to orange to red depending on cardinal direction. Wow

Right, and as one who suffered thru those 1980s I think the futility was of a different sort. I remember several years of bone numbing cold shots blowing across bare or lightly dusted ground. That gave the sense of being in winter despite missing snowstorms in every way possible - the last two years haven't had that type of cold in SNE.

I recall the years when SNE was enjoying big snows, seasoned posters saying folks were getting spoiled and reminding to enjoy it while it lasted. Ones who lived thru the 1980s referencing the contrast, how bad it was and how much it would suck if futility returned. Aaand... Here we are, albeit with the bonus of constant allusion to endless warming, no wonder the frost has gone off the pumpkin so to speak...

39.9° covered the tomatoes just in case

52.2F and 0.74" much needed water. Dark and drizzly stark contrast to yesterday

56.1F raining lightly past 2 hrs, 0.13". After weeks of perfect outside chore weather, finally a good day for an after-5p bourbon and a John Wick movie

Low of 49.3, beautiful start to the day

Yeah and then there's also this important reality: "We have to remember that what we observe is not nature herself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning." - Werner Heisenberg And because our 'methods of questioning' are flawed and changing (not always for the better, ex 'improvements' in Euro model) those who buy into settled science are betraying their coefficient of foolishness rather plainly

A drone in town got this shot of the same storm from a little further away. Was amazing looking up at this from directly below but his drone shot is classic.

Core went maybe a mile N of me, constant CG, 'green' sky & cool structure

A lot of cliche advice floating around. Sounds simple: 'buy on the dips' but that ignores the possibility of a sharpening correction and chasing added losses to the point of wasting years waiting to ride an improving mkt back to the starting point. Dollar cost averaging notwithstanding, it's not like there's no downside to buying during a selloff.

Finally some luck with heavier rain hanging around long enough to soak in, 1.89" since about 6:30am. Badly needed esp with a return of heat looming.

Line split / attenuated some as it approached but had a lingering back edge that got us to .78" of welcome water into the soil

0.11" yesterday from morning sprinkles, nada from aftn convection either missed to north, or dried up on approach. 0.24" for July mtd and just 1" in last 30 days. Crunched vs crushed.

Here's the two severe-warned storms over Maine near Gorham

A bit warm to the touch out there. Ambient station reads 92.8/79.7 and feels like 111.5. Situated in full sun at about 11ft over thick grass. No mowing or outdoor chores today any way it's sliced...

Maybe more the result of the prolonged excessive moisture last year. Drought seems to curtail their ranks noticeably more so than cold.

Was in Vegas July 5-11 in 2021. Couldn't be outside in the sun for more than a minute or two, skin felt as if it were touching a hot stove except there was no way to pull away, while in the shade it just felt like standing too close to a fire. Temp went over 114 multiple days, highest was 117 I think. Even the locals were complaining, just brutal.

Acres of lawn growing fast now - dandelions allowed as they're early food for honeybees. We drive on this grass with vehicles including an 12,000 lb tractor all the time, and never aerate, treat, or water. When it's dry (as in 2022) it gets brown and we let it go dormant. Good 'old farm' soil over 12" deep and continued natural wildlife 'fertilization' keeps it happy.

Couple pasty pics...