wokeupthisam

Just cut the town's balsam today here at the Farm with the tree lighting set for Dec 1st. Anything but cold rain, please...

Winding down and still snow, 2"

Fingers crossed, fork tongue tied

LOL yeah I mean equating interpretations of a modeled atmosphere 30 days out as TRUTH is a bit beyond the pale to say the least. Educated guesses are informative and its interesting to watch how things unfold but anyone who's really paying attention can only conclude its silly to translate those into emotional stone even a week out, let alone 4... IIRC last year in November the forum was replete with guesses how what looked to be near-epic blocking should lead to lots of great chances in December 2022. People felt pretty good about those calls too, and with good rationale. The persistent badly placed trough out west took care of that handily, the nadir being what could have been an historic Christmas week blizz turning into one of the wettest warm windiest grinches I can remember. I feel good about wintry weather in December - because it's DECEMBER and that's when climo says those 'chances' begin to add up. And I'm ever-mindful that Lucy waits in the wings, hand on the football, ready to send us kicking to the ground in despair no matter what. Watching what's modeled, reading the informed analyses by many posters here, and then seeing how it all unfolds, is fascinating, as is watching the emotional investments made on long-range forecasts. Que sera, sera!

Ugh. Didn't expect to see such horror-inducing posts until the annual grinch storm maps come out around Dec 17...

2.91 storm total, 0.46 of that fell after midnite. 5.55 for the month for Steintember so far. Sunshine and drying breezes now, looking forward to the week ahead for some siding fixes

roughly a week give or take of Lee-watching - yielding so far: 56.8F/52.9F ; 00.02" precip since midnight ; 3.4mph G5.8mph peak gust 19.5mph ROI: 0.00012" rain / hr watched, 0.027mph avg wind / hr watched

1.26" since midnight.

47.1 now off a low of 27.9 here at the farm

31.3F, snow shut off quick when that intense band finally moved away after ripping here all through my attempted cleanup. Haven't measured other than by snowblower bucket and snow to thy knickers, but eyeballing 20-24 inches. Wet stuff, tough to move, power blinking but has stayed on, amazing looking at the snow pasted on trees and wires waving in the gusts. A few nice roars overhead - took this video w sound after round 2 cleanup - that band was just pouring snow, made for a beautiful winter walk back to the house.

31.6F, S+ blowing snow vis <1/8 Power flickered 2x today but holding on so far... vid from a couple hours earlier today:

Maybe subsidence as banding sets up?

If the HRRR is right, you'll need a periscope to see it perfectly this time tomorrow ; )

34F and -SN, melting as it lands NNE at 3

Yup. This will come down to where the banding and any pivot points set up. Feasts a town or two away from famines... Radar nowcast for sure

Yeah Gray wording leaned to the bullish side but they did caveat that the 2013 and 2015 storms had a different antecedent airmass. It's a big difference in the upcoming IMO.

Eyeballing 7" here, 31.4F and moderate snow but not stacking efficiently at all. Insolation winning the battle, coatings just melting into the pack as fast as it stacks so not expecting any more accums here despite radar/fcsts.

Welcome! And good luck!

3.5 new, 31.8F slowly climbing with fog and SN-

35.2F / 23.9F

-16.2 and nearly steady. Wind gusting over 20 at times still. Not fake cold. Snowing too, despite a hazy nearly-full moon. Took a quick walk and it's surreal, 13" glacier pack, jet engine roar above the trees, and finger-numbing cold. Thank God for 4 woodstoves and some black locust splits to burn!

Impressive watching the Arctic Express arrive on time...