wokeupthisam

Two invasive insect species of concern in NE could have significant mortality of this year's population, if we can get cold enough. Both the Emarald Ash Borer (EAB) and Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) populations are susceptible to anomalous cold events, especially as temps approach -20F. "...researchers from the U. S. Forest Service and Minnesota Department of Agriculture found that the supercooling temperature for the Minnesota EAB population was about -13°F. Based on these results, a model was created that predicts that about five percent of EAB larvae should die when temperatures reach 0°F, 34 percent at -10°F, 79 percent at -20°F, and an impressive 98 percent should die at -30°F. (Venette, R.C. & Abrahamson, M. (2010) Cold hardiness of emerald ash borer PDF , Agrilus planipennis: a new perspective.) Studies on the HWA show similar results. Also their mortality is higher when the cold occurs after a period of relatively milder conditions, as the insects gradually adapt their supercooling ability in sustained cold periods, so this event holds promise for a (temporary) setback for these insects in 2023 in NE. I'm cheering for -20F here overnight Friday for that reason alone. Seems like an ideal setup to hamper those invasives for a season anyway, while not prolonging the severe conditions for people and wildlife. Bring it!

Yup... "beware the Ides of March"

Interesting to track as we head closer. 00Z run verified 2F too warm, had 13F at 2Z, actual was 11F. Not significant but kinda bored watching models right now lol

2nd cleanup was about 5in of fluff from the mid-aftn band. Great over-achiever, might have guessed from the panic around the feeders this am - it's like they think they'll never find food again ; )

30.2/30F closing in on 13" for the storm, still S+ but heaviest looks about ready to move east Snow stake shows about 16" settled

27.5/27.3 that margin has been consistent for 12+ hours... S+ last 40 mins, 8.5 new 10am today:

27.3/27.1 with snow picking up again and better growth. Heard sleet against the windows around 5am, power blinked about 5:30a just as wind kicked up suddenly from the N NE, eyeballing 5.5in new since yesterday at the snow stick

27.1/26.9, calm wind, -SN and fresh coating

26.6/26.4 few tiny flakes in the air

7 in as of 6pm today, not bad for this winter, cold air/better ratios seem hard to come by - keeps the slate of near-32 degree snow events intact for this winter, this one was between 28F and 31F throughout. Right on the modeled line here for good snows this upcoming week.

36.5/28.7 Anticipating 6 - 8 but secretly hoping for a 9 or 10 surprise... used to feeling a bit cooler in advance of a decent SWFE so we'll see

36.7/28.9 Sky has that SWFE look but usually feels a bit cooler in advance of the good ones

At least 4x, once in Feb, twice in March, and once in April. This year will be one of those, "as the days grow longer, the cold gets stronger". April will be the cruelest month this year.

...from your kbd to God's ears (papal destructive intercession notwithstanding)...

You're a MEAN one, Mr. Grinch...

Here's a confession if he's taking 'em...

Yup, sad. Wonder how much (if any) will be left Sat morning...

I'll ante your 25mph, and raise my peak gust O/U here to 30mph ; ) Might grab a 35 post-fropa but selling anything over 40 here...

Subtle but squinty-eyed hints in recent guidance of the bolded paradigm - we'll see if they continue on to a different scenario (elongated/weaker or double-barrel) or hold to a single stemwinder boring it's way into central Quebec per current consensus.

I think this is more to the point. To be accurate, the CFS did shift the primary from it's 12z run yesterday from over Ottawa, to Jackman ME... and if the consensus modeling began shifting similarly, eyebrows would be raised.... That said, on 12/15 the consensus guidance was a great-look setup for a major coastal and in just one day the consensus morphed to a GL special with only the GFS still in denial... I suppose that's why its called 'guidance' and why wx is so fascinating albeit frustrating.

One thing I've learned from reading what the mets on here have said over the years (among many learnings I might add) is this: The Atlantic may be a big ocean, but it's no Pacific. It was said well earlier: Want to avoid cutters? Get a ridge over the Pac coast/Rockies. We didn't have the +pna where and when it was needed. The Pacific is a force.

Is it too soon to be waxing nostalgic about the original title?

31.8 / 31.6 with SN- a dusting down and ENE breeze. Temp down 2F in last 90 minutes https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/e322ab5442671ef2886834c44ad4bf59/tiles

Yup. If assistance is needed, a few H2O croutons nicely dress this kind of summer salad:

lol Fish on! Keep a tight line... don't give it any slack! Bring it in slowly, let it tire out... play it... play it...