wokeupthisam

5.74" for the storm, lots of washouts around. Impressive long-duration winds and gusts too. Third nasty Grinch in 4 years, someday one will be the Christmas snowstorm I've been waiting for.

Very nice,

Exactly right, as is the obverse side of that coin: Even if the pattern IS great, it can still not snow in New England. When the mets explain 10-14 day model outputs, or weeklies, or seasonal indices etc – and say they ‘look good’ or not, they’re commenting on what the guidance is showing, point in time. As in, what the results should look like if that guidance verifies, sometimes offering their take on the likelihood of it verifying. But it’s just based on guidance that change over time more often than not. When it does, we get their take on the change. Silly to ‘cancel’ this or ‘lock’ that in LR, but irrational conclusions rule despite us all knowing that. I’ll be the first to admit my bias is to lean against epic outcomes no matter what the LR shows, which I attribute to a long life of New England weather watching and knowing how often Lucy tricks me into running at that football again. Still haven't achieved immunity, last year I fell for it again, got sucked in to hoping for a ‘generational’ winter event with all that anomalous blocking etc. Surely (I thought) there was no way a Grinch storm would time perturbations to ride through a massive block, and so when the LR on Dec 15-16 showed an historic bomb coastal around the 24th I was all-in. The fun lasted a day or two of brightly-colored apocalyptic model outputs and ruminations, until the inevitable (and dreaded) change – I think iirc the Euro shifted that low something like 500 mi in one run, then the other runs took all hopes and… rectum. Result: a Grinch for the ages last year... Yet there I was, and here I am, checking into the forum to see what the LR *might* have in store “next time”… and doing my best to remember it’s just point-in-time guidance and commentary, and more likely to change than not. Maybe a surprise pops in time for Christmas, maybe things change for the snowier after Christmas, maybe it all looks bleak through mid-January but nothing is a 'lock' - and we keep checking in to see how stuff is tracking and hearing some solid met insights into what's showing up. Doris Day was right: “Que sera, sera”!

52.2 / 0.77in wind calm occasional wilder gusts to 2.9

"Long range storms are frightful, but at Christmas they’re downright spiteful If somehow they give you snow… we know what we’ll get will be ‘No’! If they show a coastal popping, just in time for our holiday shopping By the time it gets here we know… won’t be snow, won’t be snow, won’t be snow… But if the long range all show a Grinch, then we’re certain it will be a cinch We can lock it in – it’s been clinched: won’t be snow, won’t be snow, won’t be snow!" Why do I always feel this dread about long-range storms as Christmas looms? Oh yeah - emotionalogy vs meteorology - NVM!

The weeklies, or the winter?

I think much of that came from Victorian era (Little Ice Age) stories and images, enshrined in songs and themes of Christmas that grew out of those. Dickens lived in a time when the Thames froze over and wrote "A Christmas Carol" reflecting a cold and snowy London in December. Newer jingles and stories have kept those snowy themes intact because it's so iconic, I guess.

I know what you're sayin', but last year's epic Grinch didn't subscribe - took this ash down in a gust and I caught it at the end of this vid so never say never ; )

So far, "we" certainly do. Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather we've got

4" OTG, man snow... (snowman, that is)

Yeah bit of a surprise, in town Farmington had trace only with R/S mix. I'm closer to New Durham line on a ridge and it was 2.5F cooler at my place than in town and that was the diff so far. Still meh but reminded me of last year's sharp cutoff gradients, hope that's not repeated much this year I'm ready for a cold fluff bomb

Dunno, that map is already a bust here with 1.5" OTG. That said, radar not sparking good vibes for more though...

started as sleet & snow, all snow (light) now but accumulating on grass - 29F. Wasn't expecting per Gray ME office...

Happy Thanksgiving, put on your best har-vest and enjoy this fowl day!

hmmm true... For example, some who troll online forums ad nauseum haven't raised their game at all. Rather than elevate skills to the art of barely detectable, subtle drive-bys that leave the reader questioning intent, they remain at the Captain Obvious rookie level. Ya hate to see it...

Thanks and yeah, two different birches - you can see them both on the edges of the pic where I'm cutting the tree

Yup, same tree, first pic with the group in front (I'm the poor old sod on the right) was taken upslope from the tree, might account for strange birch tree branch angle... great day though, got me started in the spirit of the season - ready for more durable snow to come

Just cut the town's balsam today here at the Farm with the tree lighting set for Dec 1st. Anything but cold rain, please...

Winding down and still snow, 2"

Fingers crossed, fork tongue tied

LOL yeah I mean equating interpretations of a modeled atmosphere 30 days out as TRUTH is a bit beyond the pale to say the least. Educated guesses are informative and its interesting to watch how things unfold but anyone who's really paying attention can only conclude its silly to translate those into emotional stone even a week out, let alone 4... IIRC last year in November the forum was replete with guesses how what looked to be near-epic blocking should lead to lots of great chances in December 2022. People felt pretty good about those calls too, and with good rationale. The persistent badly placed trough out west took care of that handily, the nadir being what could have been an historic Christmas week blizz turning into one of the wettest warm windiest grinches I can remember. I feel good about wintry weather in December - because it's DECEMBER and that's when climo says those 'chances' begin to add up. And I'm ever-mindful that Lucy waits in the wings, hand on the football, ready to send us kicking to the ground in despair no matter what. Watching what's modeled, reading the informed analyses by many posters here, and then seeing how it all unfolds, is fascinating, as is watching the emotional investments made on long-range forecasts. Que sera, sera!

Ugh. Didn't expect to see such horror-inducing posts until the annual grinch storm maps come out around Dec 17...

2.91 storm total, 0.46 of that fell after midnite. 5.55 for the month for Steintember so far. Sunshine and drying breezes now, looking forward to the week ahead for some siding fixes