wokeupthisam

5.5", 11.1/7.2F breezy bluebird skies

Took em down AWT

Yup beautiful morning, cloudless bluebird sky, no wind, 39.4° Getting final storm prep done for this WSW - just checked the electric leaf blower & it's good to go...

... March?

Hints of the low having trouble consolidating in the compressed flow?

Yup was looking at 18Z, 00Z def better.

NAM isn't biting run after run, if 0Z suite ticks weaker/flatter still, hmmm may be on to something...

35.4F -SN/IP mix

Yup, following along with the Gee-whiffs-us

Lucky it's a GFS Op beyond 3 days... I won't be losing any sleep over it

It's earned the title Dr. No - This rule is correct when the Euro says no. When it says yes to the big dogs, it can and does lose em. Just to add more pain to the hobby I guess...

Frustration is real and deserved. It's Jan 8th though, and we've seen that the H5 ENS maps are giving head fakes out 10+ days, so I'll wait to see how the next two weeks evolve before putting a fork in January.

The bare ground and icy window-rattling winds took me back to the 80s and that hail mary came to mind as I'm toggling 500 Vort charts lol

Wow. I wonder what the D-J-F numbers would show - where I am a decent amt of the snow totals have come later in Mar-Apr, and even a couple in Nov, which pads the stats but adds to the sorry performance of the 'dark of winter' months...

Fingers are crossed for the next 2 on hour runs and some southern stream progression. Seems even if the northern stream is stronger, the whole thing is hauling azz so it gives us a mood flake vibe as it flies overhead and detonates too far east. So I'm pretty much down to hoping Flutie can scramble in the backfield avoiding tacklers, and find Phelan 60yards downfield in the endzone. Hey, it could happen...

Yeah this isn't as acute as that 2/3/23 icebox by a lot. The duration of this one though is tough on the heating bills as you said.

Demoralizing trends but I'm waiting until this time tomorrow to let it go. Knife edge setup amplifies slight changes, and still interested in seeing if those show up in the next 24 hrs.

Really? Couldn't tell, looking at your avatar... lol I'm intrigued but don't think we're going to have a good handle until Wed earliest. A lot of moving parts in the flow and many aren't sampled well and won't be until then. I think we'll see more waffling on the models until those pieces are initialized better. Signal is there and potential is high, even up here I think. Fun to watch it unfold.

Wondering the same thing, when big differences involve the strength of the northern shortwave you have to question that. This may waffle back and forth until the thing is better sampled. Still fun to track, better than 2 weeks of nada...

From my vantage point, we had a H - B - or whatever ECS 5 days ago on GFS that promptly vanished from sight on said GFS very next run... Only to be given a heartbeat (not saying at the 'get your affairs in order' level) at the 12Z today but notably, NOT vanishing on the very next run... and then some Euro support thrown in for good measure.. Details TBD, but my interest is ratcheted several notches and what looked to be a boring 14-day stretch of ho-hum fraught with trapped Boo hoo peninsula energy, has now - behold - given rise to something to check in and track. This is IMHO, good.

At least Phil is burrowed in a spot experiencing a semblance of winter...

I just had to laugh and grab a screenshot when I saw this. They should have retitled it, instead of "GFS Total Snowfall" it should say, "You want a Jester January in NE? I'll GIVE YOU a Jester January..."

If it's not a pac trough digging to Baja, it's a cyclonic energy well anchored there, it's become the Boo Hoo peninsula for NE winter hopes

Renegade gust launched my Weber 5 feet off the patio, bent side prep arm 90 degrees but coulda been worse. Station peak said 32 but it's poorly sited and on a wobbly pole so wind readings are only ballpark. Otherwise not a bad day outside, M Sunny and 36F

Cold, brown and dry could have a silver lining beyond pond skating and ice fishing, if the cold was deep enough to impact the tick and invasive populations, but as modeled this is pedestrian cold and won't get the job done.