OceanStWx

I'm kind of thinking that the lack of a strong high to the Northeast is going to keep f-gen tied closer to the mid level lows rather than a classic NW Dendy band.

HRRR is shorting this event. Hard.

It even produces convective precip in the snow shield. But definitely think some of the NAM swings are due to orientation of all that convective QPF along the cold front.

Producing quite a bit of convection.

I saw the 00z runs had EOF1 that high. I was almost wondering if that pointed more towards a binary situation with two major camps. i.e. Either hits or scrapes.

Oh well. As soon as I walk through the door at home.

I'll walk out of my last shift on Sunday, headed home for the Super Bowl, with warnings flying left and right and snow amounts doubled.

I feel like they got on the blended approach early, and most days are going to rack up wins because of it. They'll still have their clunkers if they aren't massaging it with human hands though.

I do think their forecasts in general verify well from what I've seen.

I mean realistically the forecast package goes out at 3ish anyway, so there's no need to chuck anything before the Euro.

Big hole over Dendrite, can't be right.

You want to find a part of a sounding (forecast or observed) that is saturated and has lapse rates steeper than moist adiabatic (6.5 C/km). Hence the absolutely unstable part. You can get conditional instability aloft if you saturate a layer and it cools as a result, but this is already saturated and unstable.

Potential vorticity anomalies are typically changed through advection, and right now advection of the two features is parallel so they don't really have a chance to interact.

Me too.

Makes a difference when you can get some real sampling of the upper pattern.

Soon we'll be offering Brian congratulations.

All the literature I've seen says they "improved" the cold bias, but it doesn't mean it's gone.

I'm actually not entirely sure we can change that. We can change the "detail" level for how specific a town size to mention, but it always references some direction from town center. So unless we made Hermit Lake Snowplot a "town" it finds the next closest thing.

Also a problem.

We were doing extra balloons for IMPACTS last year, but COVID shut that down.

I read that domain name as IPA at first...

Yeah we can see all the Patriot Renewables (Canton, Spruce Mt, and Saddleback Wind) but oddly enough can't see the Record Hill project north of Rumford because it is on the other side of the terrain and the radar doesn't detect the turbulence created. It's not the blades we see, but the turbulence of air through the project. GYX can also see some of the high peaks of the Mahoosucs and Whites as well. I can think of the Carter Range, MWN, Sunday River and Bear Mt, Baldface or Sable in Carroll County, Old Speck.

Do you have an example in mind? Attenuation is typically caused by heavy precip or rain/snow on the dome and is temporary vs blockages or clutter which will be present all of the time.