Alfoman

If the last two weeks of February into the beginning of March verify as they are modeled at the moment - you couldn't say that the seasonals were completely off base. They're used as a guide to the longwave pattern progression, no one is using them to pinpoint exact week-by-week shifts. Being off by two weeks and then getting it right would be a crazy good win for the seasonals.

Wall to wall cold and snow for a chosen two week period during the winter is just absolutely never a guarantee when you live in and around the MA region. Mod El-Nino or not, breaks and warm ups happen even in our greatest of years.

On this note - interesting progression of the snow outputs on the GFS Ens the past few runs. While it is likely skewed by a few members that bomb out, nice to see a strengthening of the output along the MA coast

While I understand this storm is holding on by its fingernails at this point in time, I find the model trends interesting the last 24 Hours. It seems as if there is a phase to be had but it happens well off-shore. How much more would the NS SW need to come westward for the interaction/phase to happen in time for us to benefit?

18Z GFS rolling now...crazy east trend continues for that shortwave to our NE past 5 runs

This scenario is such a delicate balance. The separation with the lobe over NE Canada is what allows the ULL to strengthen and pull northward in the first place, however that also can serve as our cold air source if we can get the surface High over Quebec to stay in position and provide CAA towards CAD regions. Current evolution on the GFS is cold enough here as you can see the negative 850 mb temps being pulled into the DMV area as the low bombs off-shore but the lack of precip means there is no cooling at the surface which explains the surface temps in the mid/upper 30s. If the NS energy moves too far offshore, the cold air source is now gone and we are left with marginal temps at best. A phase would allow a bomb off the coast and the colder temps to be pulled in, but that scenario needs perfect timing for the phase... The players are all on the table though.

You saw this with the beginning of January when the pattern began changing - the models had a 4-5 stretch with much lower verification scores as they tried to adjust and figure out the synoptic evolution progressing.

That doesn't matter if you get under some decent rates even with terrible ratios. NAM has surface temps around 34-35, a little cooler than 18Z, that could easily accumulate on grass. Could be fun to watch fall if we got lucky here at the least!

You need a reliable mechanism to get sustainable cold air into the region that doesn't get pushed out by every cutter. Only way to beat that is an incredibly timed system that threads the needle coupled with a well placed 50/50 on its way out. Going to be difficult to escape our glorious cutters the next 10 days or so as we wait for that Pac Jet to clam down moving into early Feb. If you want snow in the area though, look out your window tonight

See the difference of the vort trending south and the LP north on the NAM

Looks like the heaviest snow producer could be the overnight 5 AM band as the LP shifts towards the coast. The path towards success is a stronger more organized LP off the NC coast. This would make temps slightly more marginal but I think it would be a worth it trade off for I-95

Never doubt Papa Euro

I believe this is what Heisy was mentioning on a previous page, but increased separation between these NS SWs is evident on the GFS the past few runs - this leads to a flatter evolution of our southern stream interaction for the 16th. While it is not a significant amount, the 12Z Euro moved towards more separation here as well (like it had yesterday at 12Z actually). I've been noticing this so far with the GFS this winter, it seems to be the first to sniff out how far energy will pull back in general. It lead the charge for a flatter and weaker 500 mb vort evolution for our last storm in the Day 3-5 range which ended up being the correct forecast compared to more progressive CMC and Euro solutions. Something to keep in mind.

My god that cold push at hour 168 is insane - 0's and below down to Arkansas

Still new to what's favorable for the MA region but should have known better than the B-word.

What would it take to bring this south and maybe turn it into a Miller B transfer in a favorable spot for the MA for next weekend?

Interesting to watch the evolution of the blocking pattern on the last few runs of the CMC Ens - can't say I don't enjoy it

Won't ever take Hours 60+ on the NAM with any sort of seriousness - but on that note, there was better confluence and slightly lower surface temps this run.

At this point we're really looking for baby step progressions for overall synoptic setup as we move into the 100 hour window tonight - increased confluence in accordance with a stronger LP and less movement of the High to our North. To me, it all starts by looking at the energy interaction out West as the shortwave off the NW Pac moves in much faster the last few runs leading to a much flatter evolution of our SW. Just about every model has trended in this direction the past 12 hours - need the separation to increase here

Looks like that shortwave up in Canada also translating down towards the surface and not allowing the High to flex a little further south - interesting detail in the northern stream evolution.

Lots of vorticity flying around is going to make this a "noisy" look this far out - these interactions are delicate and will probably cause a significant amount of variability. Nino makes things more difficult to track in the 5-7 day range for this reason. Looks like on the 12Z GFS the NS energy interaction from behind shears the hell out of it as it hugs the coast versus the CMC with a more ideal look if we can slow down the NS overhead and better time any sort of interaction.

Stronger energy off the NW coast doesn't allow that ridge to build out west and drive out the TPV earlier. Don't think the weak 1030 High in Canada as the 12z GFS shows will be enough for the interior regions, but an improvement nonetheless.

No Ji, it's that when you get choosey with run-to-run Week 4/5 ENS Mean outputs, you're going to drive yourself up a damn wall. Just moved up to the DMV from the Southeast...somehow ya'll are more pessimistic than them down there

13/5/1

Hey ya'll! I truly think I only have myelf to blame for the misfortune of wave 1 and wave 2. I am currently moving up to DC from Atlanta and I will absolutely be bringing the snow curse I've faced for the last 8 years with me. I just wanted to apoligize in advance! It is crazy to me how the GFS has slowly brought the mon/tues low farther and farther west/inland. The ridging over Nova Scotia is ticking stronger and stronger each run while the ULL is being pulled almost off the coast now on 12z.