Ralph Wiggum

Ahhh, I see.

Well, it isn't debris from salting the roads, so what is it?

12z NAM 12k is still Namming us for tomorrow. Extended the duration and slightly increased amounts fwiw. 3k version wants nothing to do with it.

All 3 major ops are not agreeing with the means of a stronger cutter low in the GL fwiw. This is that range tho where the ops have generally done their own thing then once within 144-168 hrs have gone back towards the ens looks. Today's runs are going to be telling imho wrt seeing if we move towards one camp vs the other.

GFS is not alone btw. CMC is not a cutter look. Really morphed last 4 runs into a followup wave thing that slides under the NAO-50/50 dipole.

With that said, also don't want that main energy lagging too far behind allowing any dampening that occurred to start the return flow well out ahead of that main energy. Timing is critical.

@psuhoffman We may have found a hero to help us reverse or halt things: ChatGPT - Climate Change

So are you suggesting the more likely fail scenarios are either 1) NO followup wave with that energy burying itself into the -PNA or 2) cutting towards Pittsburgh and late redevelopment too far N? These are the only 2 fails I see associated with our friend out West. Just want to make sure I'm picking up on what you are thinking.

Next 3 runs is usually when the threats have vanished or morphed into something totally different this season (144-180 hr range). If we can get this under a week then it might be a legit threat. I still like the look up top we are getting. Just need that to have a real impact down in the states. Pretty typical late season look tbh with a boundary pushing thru establishing the cold and a followup right on it's heels with the shorter wavelengths in-between. Problem we have seen repeatedly is the followup gets pushed too far S or sheared out. Saw this with the similar pattern in Dec when the 50/50 and NAO established. Hoping this time it works and we actually get the SER to flex just the right amt and nudge thing towards our lat.

Not sure. Looks like it is morphing into a followuo wave along a late season arctic boundary situation. These overunning events can overperform and really dump. Not seeing this as a bomb low developing tbh attm.

Isn't it the flow under the pressing NAO that is trying to do a squeeze play between the dipole and the SER tho? In any event, from your keyboard to nature's ears. You're saying suppression won't be the issue, noted.

Tell us we can't know yet without actually telling us we can't know yet. But in this winter based on base state, if you know, you know.

Right?!? Why can't this be under 72 hrs ffs. Loving the general look tho. Classic late season way to score with a followup wave type deal. Gotta hope the NAO doesn't try and squash it. Need the SER base state thing to not disappear completely when we could actually use a little push back. Feeling this threat.

You've been patient so I have a seat for you on the backloaded bandwagon. Be sure to watch your step boarding and buckle up when you find your seat.

The appearance of the pattern evolution wrt the 50/50 low and -NAO dipole around March 3-5 continues to develop among the various pieces of guidance. There are now several ind ens members beginning to honk and the ops are starting to see the looks up top and reflect down into the lower 48. Again, the threat(s) as we moving thru March are real and starting to increase. In like a lion:

NAMs came N for Saturday. 12k has coating -2" type deal extreme SE PA. 3k is mood flakes but a jucier jump N vs 18z.

These are ensembles. They don't show "positive growth snow". That ens mean is smoothed and is quite impressive tbh. Some monster hits among the individual members. Euro weeklies, CFS, and GFSx all have the same pattern progression and idea as we near the Ides. Couldn't care less if it melts in a day or hours. That is a realistic expectation given the calendar. I would enjoy every flake as it falls.

Ah yes, the SREFs. The NAM ensembles. A very dependable and accurate piece of guidance. Times like these I miss the CRAS.

So you're saying as soon as this thread was made guidance starting losing the flizzard? Interesting.

18z GFS and ens were as good as I've seen the entire winter. Strong signal emerging around the Ides of March as well. Guys, I'm dead serious when I say this is far from over. LFG!

I was waiting for you, and you didn't disappoint. Well-done.

I wonder which way the CMC will move at 0z

Ens means don't like the early March threat. Means have the low passing N and W with redevelopment too late/far N. Likely looking at a thump to something sort of deal if the looks at HL hold. Pretty certain the HECS depicted on yesterday's 12z gfs was a one and done blip. Still signals across the means going thru mid March that we aren't done tracking and the weeklies keep hope alive thru early April. Pretty much playing out as expected...backloaded if we are going to score with a delay in spring arriving. Never a doubt lol.

6z gfs 6-10"....we r losing the hecs and mecs but might end up with secs which I take secs when I can get it at my age.