Ralph Wiggum

You're glass is half empty then. I see those as more of a traditional N and W of I95 or left of the fall line look...not an "omg it's going to trend N because it's already too far N and W" look. But thats just me.

Not that anyone else cares but classic active Nino....loop the GFS, West coast gets hammered like every 36 hrs.

Yeah but days are getting shorter and sun angle decreasing.

Jaws

Moral of tonight's story....Nino active pattern likely not going to be letting us down. Busy times ahead.

Hmmm, that's a hell of a setup post Jan 10 tho on the op. Might need the Jaws poster...possible weenie run lol.

Jan 10 threat is a disaster on the GFS op

Who?

Not my cup of tea...I'll leave that for the weekend warriors

0z GFS:

CMC also secsy

CMC also a secs for Jan 7 now.

CMC has light snow Jan 4...then all eyes peek to Jan 7. GFS is a nice secs.

GFS is worlds apart from the ICON at 500mb...will be farther N than icon more inline with the 18z gfs. Eta: wrt Jan 7

She's a beaut Clark

Mods really need to consider adding 2 more reaction emojis....a vomit and an eggplant. The sad face doesn't convey a post or map that makes someone sick to their stomach. And the weenie emoji, well, that doesn't always represent our true feelings towards some 'members' at times. Thank you for your consideration.

Slp location is pretty much ideal but not sure that more amped look with more ridging out in front helps our cause.

We dont want it cranking and coming due N. Let it reach a slightly higher lat before sliding east and we cash-in. Potential looks decent. 50/50 in place, ok HP, strong s/w but not phasing inland. This could work for us.

The stronger HP vs past few runs doesnt hurt. Most know that is a function of better confluence with the vigorous 50/50 placement.

But I thought we were supposed to skip actual threats in lieu of pattern disaster discussion for fantasy range? Yes, the 1/4 system looks like the trend setter here. Becomes a 50/50 low and there is actual ridging in the NAO domain (not a WAR). This is exactly what we need and what we work with most of the time in Ninos...windows of opportunity. Many of us got our hopes up with those sustained looks for jan/Feb on the weeklies earlier this month, but sustained it proba ly won't be. I will take my chances with transient windows. At least we will have opportunities unlike last year.

Bro, great memory. That would be @The Iceman iirc. We need some reverse juju. We need to pull out all the stops here. Past few years I've put my winter jawn up in the house when the Christmas decor comes down. Maybe this year no snowmen figurines, no snow globes, no winter garden flag....pack the snowblower away. Heck, I am willing to sacrifice this new sled to the firepit tonight after a big Penn State win!! I will just tell the kids it got lost in transit. If we can get accumulating 6"+ snowfall this year, I'm willing to keep the Flyers and Sixers championship drought going for another 5 years. Whatever the heck it takes!

A new sled for my kids just arrived! That is either the kiss of death or the wakeup call to the snow gods.

Well, I think most of us were hopeful for something more sustained after seeing the optimistic weeklies last month for Jan and Feb. But this is looking more like a typical Nino....cold start with chance for something early...overall warmish, a mild period in January, and one decent sized frozen event somewhere during prime climo (late Jan-middle/late Feb). Beggars can't be choosers. And yeah lol I do agree with @ChescoWx we will surpass last year's totals at some point.

Nina=shit the blinds La Nada=snoozer Nino will save us! Joking aside these episodes have always been known for mildish winters and 1 larger scale frozen event later in the season after a January warmup. At this point everything is fitting to a tee.