Ralph Wiggum

I know the rgem has at range. Can't confirm that on the ggem.

GGEM

Did my shopping tonight. I can only imagine the stores next week, week before Christmas, major storm incoming, and in the grips of a pandemic. Can you say completely wiped shelves??

0z GFS joins the party. (shared from @NorthArlington101 in the MA forum)

ICON is in the Euro and NAM camp now for Monday. Even more amped up look on the TT site. Seeing some really different looks now as lead time lessens.. Rain to thump of slushy accum snow for most. We take?

I saw that. I guess they don't know things can change 3 days out. Temps are close...won't take much adjustment one way or the other.

Yep. Going to be an interesting week. Would be thrilled to score a few inches of snow by this time Thursday night. Would be disappointing to whiff on both but tbh I wouldn't be shocked. Unlikely, but again, we fail rather well in recent years. Would be just as shocked to score something out of both. Again, not being greedy. Just whiten the ground a bit and let it feel like the holidays and I'm happy.

Monday is looking more and more interesting out this way. Watch Monday be the bigger system of this week.

The JV squad are on board as well (ICON, NAVGEM, JMA).

Monday is our 50/50 under the block for mid week. Strong but steady moving is the ticket. Eta: ninja'd by @Newman

My expectations are tempered for now. Nice to have something under 7 days to track. You know as well as I how hard it is to have a bullseye hold for 3 days let alone 5 or 6. Thats an eternity. Pattern is woofing but I am not sold on any one solution just yet. 12z suite has shown quite a range of solutions....a cold rain, a nothing burger, and a blizzard. It is encouraging to see 2 out of the 3 big models with hits. Another couple of days.

Guidance hinting 2020 may go out with a bang. Active asf

Meh, I've seen better day 6 charts

Thank you for your research. I had a handbook but threw it in the firepit last winter.

Yepper. If we had no hits and a bunch of swings and misses or cutters we would all be saying we have 6 days to change. There's no rule ( @RedSky please confirm via the weenie handbook) that this cant turn into a disaster still. Definitely need to wait until Sunday but more likely Monday before dusting off the champagne bottles. Tuesday AM we can put on ice. Tuesday PM we can pop corks.....hopefully.

Neither of you are wrong

CMC is the high end perfect situation. On the other side we have the UKIE which is a weak nothing burger, and the ICON which is mainly a Rainer. It is good to see the GFS and GEFS (also a darn near perfect track for PHL and closeby) honking. Still a long way out. Im torn whether the early seasonal trend of tracking farther N and W with slp will verify OR if as I mentioned yesterday the -AO/-NAO help us out. Decent CAD look appearing also which tends to show more as lead times lessen traditionally. I would think guidance will continue to show several varying solutions and p-type thru AT LEAST early Sunday.

EPS mean qpf VERY impressive with a 6" snowfall mean even in my central Bucks neighborhood.

18z ICON has some accumulating snow for the NW burbs on Monday fwiw.

As a side note, when was the last time we had a topic tagged as "hot" in this subforum?

Could go either way, but with a -AO/-NAO tandem in place, I will take my chances. If the look up.top holds, I expect the CAD look to increase and the setup to slowly tick colder as the event gets closer. Good to see this type of setup tho. But before buying gas for the snowblower or 20 pounds of ice melt, need to remind myself this is 6 days out and much could change. But great to have an actual trackable event. Feeling somewhat optimistic on this one given the looks up top....if they hold.

DT honking for N of PA turnpike. Would be nice to get one of those classic N and W of the city events. Been a long time. They were so common years ago.

Main takeaway from 12z suite....stronger confluence, HP, and CAD. Even a thump to taint in mid Dec is a win IMHO. Promising sign for the winter. Last 3 seasons the pattern was dictated by mid Dec and was crud. Reversal this year. Solar minimum ftmfw!

Euro is a big hit, especially NW of the fall line.