Ralph Wiggum

Next week is looking better across guidance wrt HL blocking and subsequent ridging out west later in the period. Pattern evolution had been showing for a while but now it is getting closer in time and not being kicked later which is a great sign. Key features moving forward are the evolution and progression of a negative west based NAO, disturbances forced under the region, and eventually ridging in the EPO and perhaps PNA regions. First two 500mb maps are the Euro and GEPS showing what I am talking about. The Euro actually has a weak 50/50 in addition to a possible storm signal around day 8ish which is reflected at the surface in the bottom map. We should finally begin to have trackable events within the next few days irt medium and longer range. Eta: ensembles continue the pattern progression with a very active and dare I say "classic" look thru the end of their runs. Euro op has another potentially bigger system brewing after day 10. Let's get thru the next few days and kick 2020 outta here. Happy New Year friends!

That Euro run was eye-opening from hour 168 forward looking at 500mb anomalies. Getting closer in time. Buckle up!

No. The next one that delivers will surely be suppressed with that look You must be a blast at birthday parties and weddings.

Nobody knows how the SSWE will work out.....nobody. Dont be fooled into thinking they do. Yes there are some correlations but many more questions that scientists are still working on answers for.

Funny thing is the PAC begins to look half decent on the GEFS then we completely lose the NAO. So we can get some colder air with sheared out waves in a progressive flow east of the Mississippi.

So we are moving on to winter 2021-22 today? I cant keep up in here, believe me I'm trying to though.

Amped systems I can agree. We can score without having a crazy amped system minus a PNA ridge with marginal temps and slp sliding under us. Think overunning. Not every system we track needs to be an amped up MECS with a perfect upper air pattern.

We haven't had a block yet. It is just showing up on the 8-12 day now. All of this 'blocking" you are referencing were higher smoothed height extentions from the WAR that is about to break off and wobble into the western NAO region as a true block. We get it, your blinds are shut until you see cold air up North and a channel to get it down to the US. I dont agree with that as yes, temps have been AN in our source areas but temps have seen seasonal here and seasonal/marginal will work imo when the actual block settles in. Patience.

Did you expect otherwise? How many more examples of an ideal storm track with snow confined to the apps are we going to be tortured with?

Is the period broken on your keyboard?

This is why I'm not a fan of numeric indices. They don't give the true story of what is happening wrt real weather at the surface. We would have looked at that chart if it were a prog outlook before the season and assumed wall to wall cold and most would have had warning criteria snows by now. Not even remotely the case.

So we've moved on from the -NAO and are now cheering for a +PNA / better PAC instead? If it means getting the key ingredient (cold air) down to our region, then sign me up....I think. But you know once we get that look we are going cold and dry.

Dusted .2"

January of which year? 2022? I've never seen guidance track so many ull and surface lows to our South and yield rain to SE Canada during prime climo with such a distinct west-based NAO in my 30 years of tracking. New Englanders must be jumping from bridges. At least we are used to regularly failing down this way.

If you are referring to geopotential heights, then do a loop of them on the conus from 18z. The 540 line spends most of the 384 hrs north of the Canadian border. So I dont think you are seeing a negative correlation between those heights lines and 2m temps. The PV (lowest heights) is on the other side of the hemisphere for the most part. I just picked this map to illustrate my point: We are going to need pac help to get the lower heights and PV into Canada and the US....period. BUT marginal temps can still work during prime climo so keep that in mind. Eta: even with the -NAO, we are going to be spending alot of time near avg to AN temps. There just isn't a pac catalyst to get an arctic outbreak down here...yet.

Fancy way of saying atmospheric memory ie repeating patterns/storm tracks.

Torch for a few days as the ridge wobbles around like a rubber band? All the cold air is locked up in Siberia. So a few days near 60 ahead of a cold front followed by N temps behind can yield well AN for the period. I dunno....thats my simplistic take.

Yeah, those maps had my area over 56" in a 3 week period last winter. We ended with 0. So yeah, grain of salt on the snowfall maps.

Thanks smart-arse

What is that I see in the EPO region??

What other year do we get a track like that during prime climo and no snow even in the highlands? Oh right....last year.

Honestly it wouldn't be the first time in recent weeks the geps led the way. <weenie>Maybe because it is a Canadian model it is seeing the higher heights in HL better, eh.</weenie> Eta: On a serious note, we are seeing the first wave push thru with the associated slp acting as a quasi 50/50 aiding in better confluence over the NE. This is evident with decent HP and CAD now showing up across guidance. The eps maps someone posted above are a clear example of models seeing confluence under the blocking and HP.

Impressive for an ens mean....has the lp close to tracking under DC now. Major changes here.

0z op didn't agree as much with the 0z ens map above,, but now at 6z it is coming together and much more evident on both. Finally getting nearer in time. Trying to get a link between the nao and pna ridge with a sprinkling of an epo extention bridging across.

Ghosts of 1994 for interior on the GGEM