Ralph Wiggum

This just goes to show how much of a challenge it is to get a MECS. Often times we go thru periods of being somewhat spoiled. Soooo many things need to happen properly even in an epic pattern to produce. Timing, temperature, ridge/trof amplitude, spacing, etc. Maybe 1 out of every 4 times these great tellies setup do we actually score. That ratio is a rough guess but I believe some folks think every time things align will yield a MECS. Wish it worked like that but sadly it doesn't. "Should" the coming pattern or relaxing of said pattern produce? Probably. Will it? Tbd.

Why? We can't even score in a good pattern it seems. Heck, if we don't score over the next 2 weeks which takes us to the 24th I say reshuffle the deck and hope we back into something in some oddly convoluted pattern with unfavorable tellies. Eta: ninja'd by @WinterWxLuvr

Is that area of extreme neg anomalies over Europe/Scandinavia a function of the SWE do you think? That is quite a neg anomaly right there.

This will be the one time the entire winter thus far the EPS holds and the GEFS/GEPS cave.

EPS has caved to the GEFS the entire winter. Crazy cousin EPS wants to cut winter short. Willing to bet this time the EPS holds and the GEFS cave.

Doctor No has risen from the depths of hell apparently

I see the SSWE is already paying dividends in some parts of the hemisphere.

The silence from @WxUSAF in the main thread is deafening.

Not a bad look, this we can agree on. And this time as you noted we have a different player on the field N of the GL...the TPV lobe. Guess we will find out in a few days whether this will gain traction OR will it follow the pattern and will our sw become the latest victim of the NS shred factory?

Snow maps are pretty and all, but you and CAPE know as well as me that the truth in the LR lies upstairs at H5. The pattern isn't horrible but some of those favorable subtleties we saw 24hrs or so ago are starting to slowly fade. The overall look is ok, but seeing the 50/50 fade in lieu of more of an east based NAO ridge isn't exactly giving me the warm fuzzies tbh. Not being a deb, just being honest reporting the looks that are trending. I dont even want to discuss the LR ens at 300 hrs plus suffice it to say I really really hopethe NAO ridging can hang on and continue redeveloping.

What I dont like about the threat around the 18th is we went from a strong 50/50 look on the means from 12z Jan 9 to barely a hint of a 50/50 same period and more of and east based -NAO signal. That hasn't worked for us over the past few weeks. Maybe the signal will return. If not maybe the followup wave around the 21st will have the predecessor wave to act as a 50/50. Am I the only one getting that can-kicking vibe lately?

2 years met and atmospheric science psu. Eons ago now lol. Chose to stick with my main passion (cooking) and am now a successful Chef. And no I dont specialize in weenies

Lots of time. That run was so close to something more decent.

GFS isn't far off from that look either. Liking this setup more than 18z. Little more separation between jets, less phasing in plains

Its the ICON and its at range, so take with 2 grains salt, but like several other pieces of guidance, it is setting up something around the 18th-20th with a 50/50 developing underneath the NAO block and energy ejecting out of the Rockies. Definitely a period to watch.

Only 360 more hours to go which takes us to the last week in January. Our patience is truly being tested!

Where the hell is @Ji??

No offense taken. Big pattern look hasn't produced yet. Historically when the NAO relaxes we get another shot at a winter storm. With that said the period Jan 18th-Jan 23 is really gaining legs across guidance for something. I completely understand if you don't want to discuss anything past 7 days but frankly there isn't much else to discuss. I can agree that it has been quiet. Warm and rainy tho? I disagree on that. It has actually been rather seasonal. It rains every winter even the best ones.

Not sure your location. Where I'm at in Bucks this feels like a totally avg winter. Haven't had shorts and flip flops weather like years past.

Fyp

Signal for that period 18th-23rd getting stronger across the board with each run.

Strong signals on 12z suite across the board.

I'm slightly above avg snowfall to date here. Sure, we have been lacking the big monster coastal storms the past 4 years, but this feels like it will be an avg winter at the very least for us here. I will take that in a Niña for sure.

A flat ridge or displaced ridge in the NAO region won't slow down the flow. Rather it will suppress the flow (sliders) but allow things to keep zipping along quickly. Also the ridging keeps rolling over and a true block never establishes, tho some will argue semantics over what a true block is. We are seeing short-lived blocking but overall it is flat ridging that continually rolls over on itself keeping the flow underneath flat and fast in the NS. I'm not saying the GFS is right, but that is not the look verbatim of a blocking regime in the NAO region nor is it a big dog look.

18z GFS is about as fast and progressive a flow thru majority of the run that I have seen in quite a while. Getting something to dig and amplify in that regime is going to be one hell of a challenge.