Ralph Wiggum

Yeah right. Im pretty sure you've downplayed this from the get-go citing seasonal trends. Im entitled to one off-run meltdown. Its been exhausting since I began tracking this on Jan 15 (go in the obs thread....yes almost 2 weeks watching this). Im starting to suffer from model exhaustion

I do think the Euro may have done one of those overcorrections we often see when energy comes ashore. Expect it to slowly go back the other way by 12z tomorrow. May not get back to the HECS looks, but I doubt the low just escapes off of VA Beach either. ICON (I know, it sucks) is a beaut.

But does it? The UKMET went that route, the JMA is doing that, the NAVGEM is doing that, and the NAM at range is doing that. All the things we always go against and the Euro which has been rock steady jumps over to the JV models which may end up scoring a coup with the CRAS of all models unamped, South, and leading the coup.

I'm going to see myself out now lol. Trying to tell myself this is the usual overcompensating /overadjustment we sometimes see when the energy hits the West Coast and maybe it comes back N in 24 hours. Yes, windshield wipers Paul. Just odd and unsettling to see the ens means so drastically diverse.

Trends Paul.....trends

Ok....regroup time. The progressive NAVGEM is a complete capture coast hugger that slams us. So that has to be worth something. Eta: nevermind that was 12z. 18z is missing the capture and stays south. Confluence ftl...damn

18z EPS mean: One of these is going to fail like never witnessed before.

I hope your are right, but all signs are starting to lean against a capture now across guidance...slower transfer, farther South, confluence pressing South.

That's a massive swing for 1 run...wow.. Congrats guys. And good call @psuhoffman

18z eps mean is plain fugly. Congrats S NJ....sorry N and W of i95 crew. No capture and off she goes.

Aaand guess what feature the 18z euro is picking up on causing the confluence to press S? EE rule never fails. Ever.

Just saw the 18z...uh oh. Like all other guidance today the WAA thump for us is basically gone. Really close to missing the capture too but doesn't go out that far. We could do a double fail missing the WAA then missing the coastal Miller B so the Mid Atl gets crushed with WAA and recurve N to crush NYC and Bos with the coastal. If this is a prelude to 0z we are in deep shit. Eta: somebody take Brady behind the shed...quickly. And @Birds~69 needs to stop celebrating with shots immediately. Save that for during the event. The winter weather gods are fricken pissed!

Sounds like a complete cave to GFS over there and an unmitigated disaster brewing. Only 3.5 more days to go.

Inevitable. We've played this game before

Fwiw the GEFS clustering was farther W than 12z and more of a classic track for SE PA. Like someone said above, the overall precip got chopped on an already disjointed model family tho and that is cause for concern.

Fully expecting the Euro to cave to the GFS tonight. Classic Charlie Brown and Lucy football thing.

Damn and I just told everyone on SM to expect 2-3' here.

So do the ICON, JMA, NAVGEM, and UKMET apparently

That doesn't verify 95% of the time

RGEM gives us almost 0 WAA snows but is ramping up the coastal at range. One thing I am taking away from todays runs is we are losing most of the WAA stuff and starting to rely solely on the coastal track. It in essence delays the onset as well. Plenty of time but we are playing with fire wrt that trend today.

No other model has that piece the NAM showed N of Lake Ontario that keeps the confluence and stalled system souther. ICON is getting closer and closer at H5. Almost.all frozen now for SE PA....baby steps on that piece of shiesse. Still spits out a hefty 2-4" frozen SE PA but thay is going to cave soon the more that H5 keeps trending.

Imma crack open a 16oz PBR for this

Reads like Tip or HM....perhaps even a Bob Chill....hmmmm

I will say it....I can see this sub and Philly sub both sharing in the jackpot zone with NYC fringed slightly and the N New England crew smoking cirrus. Would love to score together here my Southern friends!