Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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First lazy random flakes lazily falling here in Ivyland. Temp 24F -
There's your classic miller B shaft. Lets hope its wrong and over focusing on the convection offshore. It is basically alone so its higher resolution could actually be hindering finding the larger scale true low center here? Asking for a friend.
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NAM was a hair W with slp but precip max actually trended wider and farther extension s and e vs 6z
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A few miles is noise imo right now. We will see this across guidance next 18 hrs. Unless there is some unanimous trend I think we are locked in. The bullseye is the only question. And then u are talking the diff between 12" and 24". Those kuchera maps are garbage.
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I see a tick at best not a screaming. 6z vs 12z are virtually carbon copies in every aspect. Trof looks a hair sharper 12z
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Let's do this ladies and gents!
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Just looking across 6z, am I seeing things without my AM coffee yet or has there been a detectable nudge S or SE across guidance?? ICON has been leading the way with these adjustments. Not saying it is correct but certainly is interesting. Back in the bullseye swath here and slowly trending on extreme SE PA again?
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Obs thread started:
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Ivyland, PA - 25F cloudy. Looks, smells, and feels like snow
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I told you trust the NAM and its trends bro. Never a doubt. My bar is still set at 12" here. Anything less is just unacceptable.
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Final call for our area 8-16". Modest storm for us a 1-in-5 year event HERE.
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In any event, the CMC is going to follow the rgem and should be just as crazy if not moreso. Brace yourselves.
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Likely
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That's what the ICON says as well. Instead of the stall near OC MD it is justnEast of Cape May. The NAM isn't alone here. The RGEM is more the outlier than anything else tbh
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Neither do I. I set my bar at 1'....I feel like Ji now.
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I think the NAM is onto something here. Other guidance is shifting the 500mb features N as well. They are small ticks but with 30 hrs to go those ticks will add up. Have yet to see the windshield wipers go back the other way. It was great seeing the NAM halt the trend at 12z but imo it as well as a few others and signaling this might be a NE PA, NYC type jackpot. Where r u chasing?? Curious
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Kuchera maps rarely verify, stop using them. 3' is still nothing to sneeze at though.
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Strongly agree. NyC should be the bullseye when all is said and done down to Monmouth. These last minute adjustments across guidance confirms.
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But we've seen this before where the convection carves out a weakness in the baroclinicity and the slp subsequently follows and everyone acts surprised. Miller B....Niña.
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Why are models suddenly nixing the tuck, capture, and stall idea?
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12k NAM is rather mundane all things considered
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Not confused at all....was more in shock that you would taunt the snow gods with such a definitive and concrete statement.
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I'm braced and fully expect the NAM to botch the handoff (capture) and shoot the surface low off to the N and E quickly yielding a minor/moderate event for most.
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I think all the super crazy totals from the last 24 hrs has many assuming this is the one. Thats where the letdown can often happen. I know I will be disappointed if I end up with the SREF 6.5" but at the end of the day, if this were progged to be a 2-4" event that would be a major win...in a Niña. Perhaps that's the way this needs to be viewed....as a nuisance storm and reap the rewards of anything more than minor totals. Meh, easier said than done after having 14-22" totals dangled in front of you all day.
