Ralph Wiggum

That's a better ridge axis!

But that's not a good spot for the mean ridge axis? Unless it rolls East but can we always be relying on rolling things forward?

We r teetering on an avocado look there. We dont want the entire pattern overwhelmed with a displaced frigid PV. Though the is an upside.....if that happens and we go frigid/dry (like my ex) we have a good shot once the pattern relaxes, so there's that.

LR look blech. Cutters then cold/dry. Longwave pattern doesn't look horrible but we've seen our share of good LR longwave stuff over the past few years that never produced, so color me skeptical. Savor any flakes today like this is it for a while.

Don't you need your rest? Nappy time?

I'm in Telford at work. Light snow 31F. Driving back to Warminster at 7 should be fun. Looking at radar there is an axis of heavier convective stuff in N montco and N Bucks in hill country. Those areas will hang on alot longer to frozen imho.

Yeah you guys look gold up there. The marginal spots before are even more marginal now. That frontogenic 700mb lift band should be telling!

Seems like the NAM is on its own. Wrfs, fv3, and hrrr all norther and warmer

Weird....tt maps way different and warmer than last run.

18z gfs has some 1987ish shit happening post 324 hrs.

I will take my slushy 5-8" rgem and hug it til the geese come home!

My area just got rgem'd

Lucy, I mean the Euro, is headed the right direction folks!

The doctor is in!

When the discussion in the main thread turns to MJO, PDO, and SSWE those are good signals, yes?

Sure it will. Cheer up. People had put too much optimism on this season with high hopes of a sustained winter. Let's be realistic, Ninos are NOT known for cold or sustained winter weather. We get brief windows and majority of those are usually cutters. We have 7+ legit weeks still in prime climo. If we get to Feb 10 haven't gotten a thing and nothing even remotely close on the LR at that time, then it's time to call it. It is still too early roght now to cancel. Frustrating asf with this snow drought we r in but things will balance out eventually.

I saw the gfs op and thought uh oh towards the later portion of the run. Gefs isn't quite as ominous but even there on the smoothed mean you still get that vibe. Could be a blip like saw about a week ago, we'll see.

Didn't last season feature cold in the NW specifically and a -PNA with a trof that kept settling in the W and SW also? Maybe this is all still Nina lag stuff that some red taggers have mentioned and once it's gone it's game on? Or maybe we are nearing time for another 684726485 word diatribe from PSU....I dunno at this point tbh. Hopeful we still get a typical Nino run of stormy winter even if only 5-10 days.

3-5" up your way some 7" lollis. That seems pretty positive

I agree on all points. I posted the same in another subforum here. Cold overwhelms pattern, we turn dry and cold, southeast/southern MA get a MECS,...then we get our 1 and done 'chance' at a typical Nino winter storm as pattern relaxes. I haven't given up on exceeding last years totals but I have discarded any hope of a sustained wintry stormy and cold pattern.

The catch phrases du jour in the main thread will be: -degraded -rolled forward could produce -weaker signal -february

I actually preferred the shut-the-blinds pattern tbh. At least we werent wasting our time chasing our tails. This is becoming yet another one of those seasons where MR/LR offer teases which fall apart as lead times shorten.

At least the metros can keep their <1" snow days streak going.

Other mesos coming in warmer. Track keeps nudging N as well.