Ralph Wiggum

What happened to 6-9"? Major downgrade there. Or was that glenn?

Total for round one before the break Thursday evening.

3k NAM is 1" snow before the flip here now. Cant say I'm not surprised at the trends under 30hrs. Eta: @RedSky 3k has Friday being the higher impact snow part of the storm now. Interesting.

Still snowing here Saturday morning on the CRAS. This model has not wavered one bit since Monday evening in the long duration look and 2-parter. I'll be damned if it doesn't have NAM and other support for a massive coup. Biggest since it nailed the Boxing Day storm.

Wow, the early part is even warmer now on the NAM. Mostly sleet extreme SE PA hardly much snow at all until the coastal Friday. Who knows....now cast time sirs.

Oddly the mesos show sleet under the heaviest banding. Opposite of what we are used to and a red flag imho. I have us at 3-4" also before the flip. Not buying the long duration impact. After the thump and flip looks showery and I doubt much more accumulates with those lighter rates during the daytime. My heart sides with @The Iceman looking at the gulf of Mexico feed and hoping for an overperformer. But my gut and experience says this is going to disappoint many who are expecting 6"+ which will probably be localized to the West.

Hrrr is warm with much sleet. Looks like we manage a couple inches before the flip verbatim. Dont like seeing the mesos reducing snow and increasing sleet but it is what it is.

Yep. I do see the 3k came in slightly warmer and sleetier in the city itself but colder just to the NW with the sleet line not making it as far N and W past few runs. That's a good sign for NW folks.

The NAM usually nails the warm tongue and rush to mixing/sleet almost every time and just like this it is often lacking strong support yet verifies while most state it is an outlier. The NAM is credible.

City is close to trouble this run. Going the wrong way at this range.

Remember...im talking city proper, not us per se

Is it in range yet?

I've had snow accumulate midday in mid April. It exists but isn't a massive issue for maybe a couple more weeks.

Earlier

Right! We would have killed for this the past 4 winters.

Much like this^^ post. Thanks for sharing.

Seems reasonable to me juicing up the WAA as it nears game time. La la lock it in!

Para gfs?

NAM warmer ll . Quicker flip than progged is still my call.

So like clockwork the HRRR 12z comes in and is basically all snow all of PA entire event. Challenging forecast is this.

Remember when past Monday was forecast to be highs around 10 and tomorrow was supposed to be around 60?

Over the past 18 hours we have seen the trend across guidance for less thump/overall snow with less extreme f gen banding, less of a 700mb jet, and a faster transition from snow to sleet/slop from S to N hence the lower snow depth maps. In my experience when we see these changes leading up to game time that means mixing will be the primary p type from around 202 (maybe a bit farther N and W) on South and East. Expecting snow to break out here in lower central Bucks by 7am Thursday. Moderate for a few hours maybe even a burst on SN+ right before the switch over to sleet by around lunchtime. Should be 2-5" on the ground by that point then sleet and fzra continue thru the afternoon before dry slotting in the evening with more showers type mixed precip ending shortly after midnight on Thursday. Total snow/sleet by finish here 4-7".

Its funny...laugh all u want but if this ends up a longer duration into Friday night after the thump Thurs, the CRAS will have scored a huge coup sniffing that signal out over 30 hrs ago.

@Newman either doesn't like this threat or something happened. Odd not to see more input from him.

Hug the CRAS then lol. 8" from the thump and then mix ending as snow with ~4" additional Friday into Sat.