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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Pseudo quasi semi hybrid Miller ABC just for the record
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    If it makes you feel better, the GFS recently had that upgrade, so wrt if it helped or hurt the model, we just cant know yet.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    JMA is an interior beat down:
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Here's lookin at you kid:
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    I feel like the last winter storm warning was 2016. I know that isnt true but feels like it. They truly are few and far between anymore or at least thats my perception.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    The moral is, the farther N you go generally does better with miller b's. There are exceptions of course like anything but thats a pretty good rule of thumb.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    I dont go by snow maps 6 days out, use the upper air charts at this range. I deleted my post intentionally as interior and North does ok. SE PA the norm. We take for mid Dec. Lots of time.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Hopefully we arent in a redux of 2021 where the GFS/GEFS led the way and the Euro/GGEM kept slowly caving.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Sheared and shredded. Nina theme. Patience. Throw enough chances one will work. Lets get thru the next 7 days eh?
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    12z gefs shared from Mid Atl:
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Take this and run:
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    I'll take this look 6 days out all the time on the GEFS:
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Confluence and flat jet ripping. No pna ridge this run. Shred factory....one of those wrenches in a Nina. Hopefully just a fluke run but is a possibility of course.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Biggest change out west wrt pna. Buries energy out in the West this run....little to no pna ridging vs 6z.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Primary dying a quick death. Good trends all around so far.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    The 50/50 is really doing its thing. Folks, we have a legit trackable event.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC is tucked....mix to rain. Trended colder tho and more coastal signature.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Isnt this the storm window that DT put out an ALEET for last week?
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON at 150 resembles the GFS 6z at the surface:
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    I noted elsewhere, the higher heights during this time moving wward from NAO to S Central Canada is now connecting with the PNA on the op centered over Rockies. Looping the past 4 runs has been eye opening wrt this feature and is one of the keys in this working.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    We'll see changes in about 3 hours im certain.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    @greenskeeper is lurking and tossing weenies....direct correlation between this and snowfall potential.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    See my other posts but the +higher heights (some calling it blocking) retrogresses from NAO wward to S Central Canada (eventually feeding the EPO). GFS times this higher height movement West in tandem with a vort moving underneath. Same time these higher heights try and connect with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Unlikely it times perfectly like this, but even more odd it was 2 runs in a row.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Exactly. Gfs at 130ish hours ago had a potent coastal for today with 60kt winds along the coast. Sunshine out my window here
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