Ralph Wiggum

Shhhh, we can will this. We excel in these situations. That WAR will keep it from sliding and keep that kicker from shoving it out to sea. We got this!

You know I'm bored when I'm dissecting the ICON at range I mean cmon, if we get that lobe N of Lake Ontario to phase in. We can do this

ICON would be somewhat drool worthy if we thread the needle properly. Big 1041hp anchored over SE Canada. Move the S a bit and move the slp east.....meh, lock it in. Wth could possibly go wrong? I mean, we usually would love this look usually in early Jan. Where's that antecedent cold when u need it?

Still like to see antecedent cold air mass in place prior to talking any discreet threat, and I know it's the Volvo of computer models, but heck, gotta love that big 1041hp with a banana signal anchored over SE Canada and the CAD signature on the 12z ICON: It's a small window, common in a Nina....and definitely a thread the needle situation but heck, nothing else to track attm besides AN temps in the short term.

I honestly don't think we see much of anything...some flakes maybe. No real support on the ens. The premise of my post was more to show the roller coaster with us possibly touching 60 then flakes a few days later. Eta: Euro has the temp swing and flakes as well. I just think the effect is pretty neat and somewhat predictable

Not really a true baroclinic zone nudge. My research shows more of a rubber band snap effect wrt deep winter full lat ridges and subsequent polar fropa within 5 days thereafter. In my studies when you loop the hemispheric h5 charts and focus on the West, it often resembles a rubber band snapping. I posted my studies here years ago and ppl started referring to it as the Wiggum Rule. When I submit my papers to the AMS I am going to ask if they can keep that name. Not sure if copyright issues would allow for it tho.

Wiggum Rule watch....Jan 4: Jan 7....flakes: Pattern continues to develop into a more favorable PAC and mid month forward holds some hope for you very patient snow-starved weenies.

Those temps 60+ are important up this way for personal reasons (research). Bring it!

Epic

Wrt Jan 15-20 and tracking mid range. I guess that depends on what your expectations are? I would like to be tracking legit by then as well, and I honestly think something may pop before then. But even if not, we've seen plenty of Febs save a crud early winter and even more recently we've had a few really solid snow events in March.

And wrt threading the needle events, we do those as good as Stevie Wonder trying to find a needle in a haystack.

I think there might be a thread the needle sort of window before then but yes, mid month on should get things at least more sustained seasonal with some 'legit' threats before we hit another thaw. Thus is Nina...small windows sandwiched between thaws and cutters. No 2 are exactly alike but thats the general theme.

It was never the first half of Jan. Might be a tiny window or 2 but first half is essentially the transition away from PAC crud and re establishing the cold air source to the North.

I know a few here have basically canceled winter or are very pessimistic of anything wintry here. But mid-month forward should present a few solid chances before another 'thaw'. Nina is all about windows of chances sandwiched between thaws and cutter patterns. It was never going to be balls to the wall winter from start to finish. But I stick by patience and hanging in there as prime climo will provide the best windows then as HL blocking gets things all convoluted come later in winter more windows will open. Just don't jump out the windows yet....patience!

Fix the Flux capacitor and set the date to january 1996

I like where hrs 282 implies we may be headed based on past hl looks as such, especially just earlier this month. Big ridge signal near Scandinavia which generally feeds the NAO over time, nice EPO ridge, and what looks to be a -AO. Little ways out but something to watch going forward:

Soooo, how bout those +height anomalies at HL on the GEFS in the LR?

How did I know this post would end with 'lol'?

Looks like our transition period is moving up on the ens. Originally the 8th looks like we start the transition around the 5th as the pna tries and go positive. EPO ridge builds. Shortwave sliding under ridging in SE Canada. Could actually see a viable threat centered around the 8th but too far our to track any discrete threat. Still need cold air in place prior to anything so let's get thru the AN temp period and the transition....by mid January things should be evolved.

^^^ not being a smart ass but people lost power in their homes, medical equipment seized, froze to death, got stuck in their cars and froze during busiest travel days, roofs collapsing, etc. You just can't predict the worst and I'm not sure something like this the local government could even force people to leave. Those residents would have laughed at them. Plows breaking down and catching fire. They did what they could. I'm not really sure what you were referring to ie this could have been avoided. Nature going to be nature.

How so? Drain the Lakes?

Looks thunderstormish outside.

Epic pattern is producing.

If the ens are right might touch 60 between Jan 1-Jan 3. Mixed signals involving a wave riding the boundary under our region centered around the 8th with us potentially on the colder side. Would fit the old Wiggum Rule. Might be the only thing on the horizon to track....blinds are shut until at least the 8th imo but I think our more significant threats come around or after mid month as the split flow out west takes shape and deep stj waves trudge through the deep South before hitting the SER/WAR with cold air finally making a return thanks to the EPO-