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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Exactly. This does not have much moisture with it at all. And if we are counting on ratios to save us, remember it will be near 30, we aren't talking teens. 12:1 imo.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Because it isn't widespread and those totals probably won't verify on the high end (6-8"), but we'll see.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    A few buddies refer to me as 'weatherman'. With that said was just on a group call and they asked what to expect. So I said exactly as above, "really a general 1-3" but could be a 3-5" strip where the Norlun band sets up". The responses I got reminded me how much a weather nerd I really am.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Exactly. This is a general 1-3" type of setup. The higher 3-5" stuff will be wherever the banding sets up. Could n or s of the city still. We just can't know.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Bigger bust potential imho is coming in under the 4-6" for SE PA, not above that. Like ice said, we enjoy. Might be the last for a little while. Kids have a damn virtual day tomorrow. Most of us here were lucky to have a actuual snow days when we were young.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    A page back
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Fox29 seems a bit aggressive too. Hope these latest mesos s shifts/drier are just the windshield wiper effect and not reality.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Something to watch later next week during the 'relax' pattern as it starts to transition. Several ops and ens members have been hinting at a well-time HP moving along the NE with good placement as moisture runs up from the South. Would take a good bit of things to go right, but since guidance had been hinting figured it was worth mentioning at least. Here's the GFS depiction:
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Hrrr is 4-7" 3k targets Baltimore and pts south of the Mason Dixon Fv3 is a non event 12k is 1-3" Pick your poison. I choose a #1 with cheese....whopper time!
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Take
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    I posted something similar in another thread without being quite as blunt about it, but was told it is a workable pattern and would just take some unconventional methods to work. Feb 15th - 26th is where we have our next legit shot after the light system Friday. Then lights out after that.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    "Guys", "folks", or "next'?
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Pretty much....at least to start out. As Chill noted, we probably dont shut off the stj but it gets shunted S and we wait for the relax or some renegade NS system. Better than a shit the blinds look, that's for sure.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Yeah, a bunch of afds from regional stations were saying this was either a dc-philly target or a philly-nyc target, so either solution has us getting something. We are a snow town after all
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    NAM is another 2-4" Friday. We take.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Did you kill the original thread and start the new one? This is the range
  18. Ralph Wiggum
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    That is actually too much of a good thing verbatim. Though with the +NAO might wash. We just can't know.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Not bad for a model that is generally conservative with qpf.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Less confluence this run.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    That's one of the better honks from the super LR models of the entire season. The lower Atlantic side height tendencies have been adjusting N. That is right where we want it.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    And you can glean that from a weeklies or monthly model thru March?
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Flyers look damn good.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    RGEM is amazing for the area for Friday....regionwide 3-6". The good trends continue.
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