Ralph Wiggum

I'm just playing devils advocate. Seeing too much KU and HECS talk. OK, I agree, synoptically it looks pretty darn good. But I'm tempering expectations. I'll ease off the cynicism. Let this one happen.

Isn't the NAO retrograding too quickly tho? I mean I know we need it to relax but this looks like it takes a one way ticket to the Aleutian ridge bridge no? Eta: taking the same steps other windows have. Keep moving the NAO west and pumping the SER and, well, you know where any storm is headed.

Ides of March Bombastic Fantastic pre St Patty's Storm of the Decade!

Is this like follow the yellow brick road? Snowing in poppy fields would be a dreamy way to round out the winter....I'm all in.

NAO continues retrograding farther W and the GOM ridge is becoming more stout and moving closer to the SER position. Two ways to see this map.

The full lat ridge NAO/GOM link that everyone says will get beat down is preventing the pattern evolution. In order to get this to work we need the energy to push thru. All season 10 day props showed hope with mirages of sw's surviving their way thru said ridging. We shall see....staying cautiously cautious for now

Just under a half inch here right around .4" for the largest event of the season. Backloaded for sure

Pretty sure we had a similar pattern in part of Dec but the pattern got overwhelmed with cold. I could be wrong tho.

Different up top or larger SD features but the mid and low lats generally look the same...trof building on West Coast, ridge flexing near the GOM. I realize it is after this period ppl are honking on, but the progression is still 10 days+ away. I suppose the fact it's March and this pattern could work with smaller wavelengths has folks excited for at least a chance. I see the rationale. But realistically and based on track record we've been duped into believing these day 10+ epic potential pattern changes a few times this season. If we get to March 5 or so and the progression still looks favorable headed out past March 8 I cam begin to think this could be different. I hold out hope for mid month, but remain cautiously skeptical for now.

I immediately thought of this scene from Dumb and Dumber

Can we still say "snowman" or do we have to say "crystallized frozen precipitation person"? I can't keep up.

I wonder if that S Central US ridge is going to try and link up with the ridging up top near the NAO region? That could be a fly in the ointment.

Biggest event of the year so far .3" snow/sleet. All snow now:

But....but this time is different. The angle of the NAO is telling

Only because it's 10 days away.

Hail?

Heavy sleet/snow in Warminster 35F

Rain and wet flakes mixed in Boue Bell 39F

Strangest looking map I've seen in some time

Ides of March. LFG!

@CAPE ... I'm pretty sure we have seen this before this winter. Disturbance at LR plowing thru the SER and the op says yep, that's possible. Your thoughts (besides that its an op at range and dont waste my time)?

Hr³ is slowly backing down positive snow totals for tonight S of i78. Hope to get a dusting at least. Beware the Ides of March?

It looks like if SE PA is going to pickup any accums tonight (south of i78 at least) it would be between 8-10pm. Looks to start as rain or rain with pingers then the heavier convective band rolls thru after 8pm flipping to snow before transitioning to sleet and sleet/rain mix after 10pm ending as plain rain early Tuesday. Beggars can't be choosers....my yard spotlights will be on full lumen tonight. If we can top .25" here tonight it would be the largest snowfall of the season imby. LFG!

So 16 days away. We got this.

That SER is showing more and more, little by little each day on these spaghetti plots....I've been specifically following that feature because that has been our nemesis all year. I'm not saying one way or the other what I think just yet....just watching from a distance.