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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Maybe I’ll just double my paltry 6”-12” forecast and call it a day.
  2. CT Rain
    That’s a nice ukie look
  3. CT Rain
    Yup
  4. CT Rain
    You can see why the GFS sh*ts the bed with the storm in SNE. 700mb low and warm conveyorbelt just falls apart. Not sure it's right but definitely a caution flag IMO.
  5. CT Rain
    My biggest concern with the GFS is just how everything falls apart as it comes NE. Probably too much but I think a Euro/GFS blend makes sense.
  6. CT Rain
    Storm really falls apart on the GFS once it gets into SNE. That s/w goes into the shredder.
  7. CT Rain
    I mean it's possible. Some hellacious fronto.
  8. CT Rain
    12km NAM is beautiful for the QPF Queens. I do think it's overdone with such a wide swath of that kind of liquid? Seems fairly progressive and not that classic ML lows closing off and pivoting right under us?
  9. CT Rain
    Beast mode on the NAM. Pretty wild look there.
  10. CT Rain
    I wonder if the s/w sort of damping out/getting sheared opens the door for non-hydrostatic stuff to start taking over with convection offshore. We'll have less and less forcing from DCVA as that s/w weakens over SNE but may see convection start running the show over the Gulf Stream and messing with the WCB and other stuff.
  11. CT Rain
    I have a feeling there's going to be a pretty narrow band along the max fgen zone that gets slammed. I doubt it's nearly as widespread as the QPF queens would believe. I could see something like the 18z Euro (narrow band of really good stuff) and less on either side. Not sure, of course, where that band is.
  12. CT Rain
    Yeah I think they were saying that as a reason that confidence is low. I think they changed it last year. They also got rid of Blizzard Watches
  13. CT Rain
    There's actually no time limit anymore on the watches... just 50% confidence of reaching the criteria.
  14. CT Rain
    There's a ton of spread on the GEFS so still a pretty uncertain forecast with respect to SNE impacts I think. Would like to see a couple jumps on the GEFS to the north.
  15. CT Rain
    Plenty of time for the north trend to commence.
  16. CT Rain
    Unless the federal government steps up to pay bars/restaurants/etc to stay closed (which of course they should) and keep their employees whole I'm not sure what can be done.
  17. CT Rain
    Yeah, we're in a very bad place. There's also no appetite for shutdowns like we had in March which will make this that much harder. Thankfully outcomes are better with better treatments but man it's not going to pretty.
  18. CT Rain
    For sure. I mean everyone I know with an IKON or EPIC pass is 100% expecting to ski in VT this winter. Not even contemplating not going.
  19. CT Rain
    I'm willing to bet in a couple Fridays the endless stream of black SUVs with NY/NJ/CT plates will be racing up I-91. I can't imagine that the ski areas are expecting compliance with this otherwise why even open for the year? Have to imagine most of the revenue from the bigger resorts is from out of state guests who would not be able to quarantine in most situations.
  20. CT Rain
  21. CT Rain
    Oh wow - figured it was bad. You can track the RFD surge from the Farm River in North Branford/Foxon right over Snake Hill and then down toward Tisko off Damascus Rd. Did you ever get your drone up?
  22. CT Rain
    Yeah I imagine Snake Hill is an absolute mess. I'm also wondering how it is over by the Supply Ponds... the core of the strongest wind went from Snake Hill right over the Supply Ponds and then down through Damascus Rd near Tisko. Let me know what you see - I'd love to take a look!
  23. CT Rain
    I was out on the Sound Sunday and saw the damage from the water. The most impressive damage was just west of you over the Thimbles where there were a number of snapped flag poles, snapped/uprooted trees, etc. Lots of debris in the water including flipped over docks, limbs, etc. What a mess. Glad you're OK.
  24. CT Rain
    I drove around Branford yesterday and the damage is remarkable. Widespread 80-100 mph gusts with snapped stands of hardwood trees, some structural damage, etc. Have to imagine it's the worst damage in town since at least Hurricane Gloria. What struck me overall was the pretty much continuous damage path from Bethany to Hamden to North Haven and then North Branford/Foxon/Branford. One of the most impressive swaths of widespread damage I can recall outside of a significant tornado in New England.
  25. CT Rain
    It was in time for Branford but definitely late for Bethany and Hamden.
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