yoda

LWX AFD from this afternoon already mentioning severe weather threat next week The most active period looks to be Wednesday night through Thursday evening. This is when the strongest mid-level trough of the week and an associated surface cold front cross the Mid-Atlantic. Our area should be squarely in the warm sector, with plenty of instability and moisture available (PWATs over 1.5-1.6" possible). Some strong to severe storms are possible Thursday as a line of storms develop along the passing cold front. The better chances for severe storms look to be east of the Blue Ridge where ample instability and shear (model soundings indicate 40-50kt of bulk shear) are more likely to be present. The biggest question mark is whether early morning cloud cover dissipates in time to allow for better instability to develop. Moderate to heavy rainfall is also possible areawide, which could lead to some instances of flooding (though it is also highly dependent on how much rain falls in the prior days.)

Going to have to look that one up as I don't remember that one

12z GFS says maybe next Wednesday? @Kmlwx

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 122 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Dangerous convective environment in place today and into tonight. Storms have already fired out west with severe and tornado warnings already issued this morning. A special balloon sounding issued by the NSSL near Weatherford shows a concerning profile with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE, 0-1km SRH near 25 kts, effective shear of 60 knots all indicative of a volatile air mass in place. A PDS Tornado Watch has already been issued for western Oklahoma and western north Texas with the expectation this will likely be expanded eastward within the next several hours. Guidance has trended a bit slower with the forward progression of supercell thunderstorms, and the latest indication is central Oklahoma should be impacted by dangerous supercell thundrestorms capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes within the 3 PM to 9 PM time frame. Complicating this is the high potential for very heavy rainfall which will quickly lead to flash flooding issues where these storms set up. The WPC has issued a high risk of flash flooding for parts of east-central Oklahoma, though it should be stressed that there is uncertainty with the placement of this. Central and southern Oklahoma are at risk of dangerous flash flooding issues. Repeated rounds of thunderstorms are expected, and the public should not let their guard down after a storm has passed. Many public events are occurring today and with people out of the office/school, there is a high concern in our office of people being out on the roads or away from shelters. We urge those who can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed warnings! Thompson

TXC023-275-272130- /O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0027.240427T2041Z-240427T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 341 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Knox County in northern Texas... Southwestern Baylor County in northern Texas... * Until 430 PM CDT. * At 341 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Rhineland, moving northeast at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * Locations impacted include... Seymour, Munday, Goree, Red Springs, Vera, Rhineland, and Bomarton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3358 9977 3375 9951 3372 9936 3360 9928 3349 9935 3346 9957 3345 9972 TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 206DEG 20KT 3354 9969 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 OKC103-272100- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-240427T2100Z/ Noble OK- 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR EASTERN NOBLE COUNTY... At 330 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 4 miles west of Morrison, moving north at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Morrison and Sooner Lake.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wichita KS 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 KSC019-035-049-272115- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240427T2115Z/ Elk KS-Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS- 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELK...EASTERN COWLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES... At 333 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Dexter, or 13 miles west of Cedar Vale, moving northeast at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Elk, eastern Cowley and northwestern Chautauqua Counties, including the following locations... Cambridge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3709 9672 3717 9685 3745 9662 3729 9639 TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 209DEG 25KT 3716 9673 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$

70/60 tor probs on the watch

Regular (non PDS) tornado watch just went up in KS/NE URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Northeast Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop across parts of central and northeast Kansas through the afternoon in a very moist and unstable environment. The strongest cells will be supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 25 miles southeast of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024

Uh, about the 12z RRFS...

Mesoscale Discussion 0539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Northwest TX...western/northern OK...and southeast KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 144... Valid 271557Z - 271730Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will further increase into the afternoon from parts of northwest Texas into southeast Kansas, including potential for a couple strong tornadic supercells. A broader tornado and/or multiple PDS/non-PDS tornado watches will be needed prior to the 18Z expiration of WW 144. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis placed the nearly stationary dryline across the eastern TX Panhandle through northwest TX. The deepest convection is ahead of the dryline in west-central to north-central OK, which includes a supercell in cluster and a downstream discrete supercell. Surface warming has been more pronounced in parts of central OK, generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. The leading discrete supercell should have relatively uninterrupted inflow as it impinges on this relatively max in boundary-layer warming. Amid a 45-kt southerly low-level jet per the TLX VWP data, potential will exist for cyclic tornadoes that may be strong. Strong mid-level rotation has also been noted with the supercell in cluster now centered in Dewey County, OK, and this storm should pose a continued threat for all hazards. Additional storms should regenerate along the dryline farther south into northwest TX through the afternoon given minimal MLCIN. With weaker forcing for ascent relative to farther north, there is some uncertainty in how quickly this activity will become severe. But the overall environment will favor discrete supercell development, especially as the boundary layer further warms. ..Grams.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

To further what @Quincy posted above re OUN sounding

1300z update hits the tornado threat a little harder with the wording... written by Thompson and Hart SPC AC 271256 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK...NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST KS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph are all possible. ...A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat... ...OK/KS/north TX through tonight... A pronounced midlevel trough over the Four Corners will move eastward today and then begin to eject northeastward tonight over the central/southern High Plains. This synoptic pattern will maintain a lee cyclone in southeast CO and a dryline arcing southeastward and then southward close to the western OK border. Farther north, a stalling baroclinic zone will move slowly northward into northern KS today and central IA by this evening. A broad, unstable warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support multiple rounds of severe/tornadic storms through the period, both along the synoptic boundaries and in parts of the open warm sector for OK/KS. The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress as an embedded jet streak (evident as the fast-moving cloud streak over west TX) begins to interact with the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture. Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday. An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS. A moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and lengthening/enlarging hodographs with time (as a mass response to the approaching shortwave trough) will become more favorable for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes. The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells. The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK. Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west. The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds. ...East central CO/far western KS this afternoon/evening... Near the lee cyclone and a stalled front, thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon in a small cluster/arc across east central CO. Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the 40s, cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to surface-based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Relatively large, curved hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and large hail, as well as damaging gusts once any upscale growth into a line segment occurs.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Des Moines IA 857 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 IAC099-153-270230- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-240427T0230Z/ Polk IA-Jasper IA- 857 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND WESTERN JASPER COUNTIES... At 857 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Pleasant Hill, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Des Moines, Altoona, Pleasant Hill, Bondurant, Adventureland Amusement Park, and Prairie Meadows around 900 PM CDT. Mitchellville around 905 PM CDT. Valeria around 915 PM CDT. Colfax around 920 PM CDT. Mingo around 925 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mingo, Valeria, and Runnells. This includes the following highways... Interstate 80 between mile markers 140 and 155. Interstate 235 between mile markers 10 and 12. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Crosby told me he was trying to get a Monday morning time so we could include Ovechkin

Lol Capitals. True, made the playoffs, but your offense sucks

McCarthy from Michigan it is for you guys

@Kmlwx Afternoon disco from LWX highlights it already A true tease to Summer arrives Sunday-Tuesday of next week as strong upper level ridging off builds over the mId-Atlantic region. With strong surface high pressure off the NC coast an ample supply of warm air advection will surge our way boosting temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s Sunday and potentially pushing toward 90 degrees in some locations early next week. These temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late April standards. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and 60s. The ridge begins to buckle Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The front will bring renewed chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. With that said, severe weather could become a possibility given the well above normal temperatures and modest dynamics Tuesday afternoon and evening as the front passes. CIPS analogues and the CSU Learning Machine probabilities continue to highlight this potential 7 days out especially in areas east of I-81. We`ll continue to monitor this threat and see how it evolves over the coming days ahead.

Looks like Tuesday maybe our next chance for a few strong to severe storms

Orioles have called up Kjerstad https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/orioles-promote-heston-kjerstad-top-prospect.html