yoda

DCA was 75 at 5am lol

They reported at least 0.1" per @WxUSAF

I think i see a 67 as the highest temp you posted. I think DCA was near 80 after midnight lol

You'll have to ask Randy about that

Record obliterated

@Nomz sorry bud... hope you have water with that salt

*gives side eye*

Trained spotter reports 1.3" in Owings Mills as of 137pm

Is that the same NWS Employee who reported 0.2" at 1215pm in Herndon? If so... thats basically reporting rates of nearly an inch per hour lol

Per NWS Employees: 0.5" 1 N Tysons Corner at 115pm 1.0" 1 NNE Herndon at 125pm

Uh oh lol

To compare, at 5am DCA was 75 degrees. 6am 65 degrees. Add another to the list you posted @MN Transplant

1pm official DCA OB - 34 -SN WCI 25

Well?

Must be an abnormal day

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys... An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning. While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.

Tornado Watch up out for our NW parts of CWA

When will watches be issued?

DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Today`s forecast remains a very challenging one in regards to the potential for severe thunderstorms. At this point, there`s a wide range of potential solutions on the table, with very low confidence in which solution will ultimately verify. However, ahead of any thunderstorm threat, very warm temperatures again this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Record high temperatures may again be in jeopardy (see Climate section below for more information). This is ahead of a powerful cold front, which will bring a substantial change to the weather thereafter. Now, shifting gears to the more pressing topic, which is today`s severe weather threat. First, current conditions differ a bit from the previous forecast, with no morning convection to deal with at this time anywhere in our forecast area. Looking upstream though, a piece of shortwave energy branching off of the southern stream energy over the southern Plains sparked a few showers overnight across the MS River Valley, but those never really got going. However, there is some cloud debris from this activity that is heading in our general direction, currently over the OH Valley. The more potent convection has generally followed the evolution portrayed form the 00z NAM, keeping us clear from convection this morning, unlike some of the global guidance. Latest runs of the HRRR are also capturing this pretty well, so at least for now, that may be a good point to start from. Now, looking into the future, there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the evolution today, but the lack of substantial convection this morning does lend me to believe that we don`t get completely capped today, so will lean generally in that direction with this morning`s forecast. The primary feature at play today is a potent northern stream trough, which will continue to amplify as it tracks eastward from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes today. A corresponding surface low will deepen as it tracks northeastward from Lower Michigan across the Lower Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. The low-level mass response to the deepening cyclone will lead to strengthening low-mid level winds, as a 700 mb jet of 50-70 knots develops over the Ohio Valley this morning before spreading over our area by peak heating this afternoon. Southerly flow at low-levels will draw deeper moisture (low 60s dewpoints) northward into the area, which when combined with daytime heating (surface temps climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s) will lead to surface-based destabilization (MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg). Assuming that storms occur, the environment in place with MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and effective bulk shear values of around 50 knots (with nearly all of it below 700 mb) will be very favorable for the development of severe storms. Per the most recent guidance, and using the guidance with the best current initialization, this is the current thinking for convective evolution today. First, the showers over the OH Valley are beginning to increase in coverage, but are generally moving towards PA and should largely stay north of our are this morning. Some clouds are likely to move into our area as a result. The biggest question is, will they clear out enough to realize the aforementioned CAPE value this afternoon? Looking at forecast soundings, even in those that don`t really initiate convection, leads me to believe we will, and that the storms moving out of central WV into our region by early-mid afternoon do have a decent chance to maintain or redevelop on our side of the Allegheny Front. Assuming this does happen, the available shear/instability support both multicell structures, as well as discrete supercell structures. All hazards will be possible, including tornadoes with any storms this afternoon. The environment in place will make damaging winds possible with any storms that form. However, that threat would likely be maximized in scenarios that produce a more linear convective mode, with a QLCS or smaller bowing segments. A more cellular mode would likely lead to supercells, a greater threat for both severe hail and tornadoes, and lesser areal coverage of damaging winds compared to a linear mode. Storms spread east through the afternoon and towards the I-95 corridor by this evening. The eastward extent is also in question, and will likely depend on what from convection takes. The Storm Prediction Center maintained the SLGT risk for severe today, but did expand their 5% tornado probability outline for most of the area, and maintained the CIG1 hatching area (suggesting a reasonable maximum tornado intensity of EF-2, if a tornado were to occur). That hatched area with 5% probs is an indication of the level of uncertainty still in the forecast, but also the high-end nature if things do tailor towards the worst-case scenario. They also have a 5 percent hail contour, and a 30% wind contour (which is driving the SLGT risk category). There is no CIG 1 hatching for wind, but hurricane force gusts (74+ mph) are needed to justify wind hatching. It wouldn`t be a shock to see some 60-70 mph gusts in any bowing segments. The main line of showers that will accompany the actual cold front itself will largely fizzle into showers with a shift in synoptic winds in its wake. This is because it comes through overnight, with no instability left to work with. A brief summary of the main takeaways follows below: -Forecast uncertainty is very high tomorrow. Plausible scenarios range from no severe thunderstorms at all, to a very impactful severe thunderstorm event. -Any storms that do form this afternoon will likely turn severe, posing at least a threat for damaging winds, and potentially large hail and tornadoes too (if the storm mode is supercellular). -The timing of the most intense storms is expected to be in the afternoon and evening hours, with the strongest storms (if they occur at all) expected to move through the I-95 corridor between roughly 3 and 8 PM. -A squall line will likely approach from the Ohio Valley and track toward the Alleghenies tomorrow evening, but will likely be weakening as it does so. Any severe threat with this line will likely stay confined to along/west of the Allegheny Front.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 532 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-120945- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 532 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Severe thunderstorms are possible today, most likely between 4 PM and 9 PM. Severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, a few instances of large hail, and a few tornadoes which could even be strong. Monitor the latest forecast for updates and watches, and be sure to have a way to receive warnings promptly. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Wind gusts could approach gale-force over the waters on Friday afternoon into Friday evening, particularly closer to shore. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon.

In all 3 "zones" of the HWO from last night DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Multiple rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely between 2 PM and 10 PM Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, a few instances of large hail, and a couple tornadoes which could even be strong. Monitor the latest forecast for updates and watches, and be sure to have a way to receive warnings promptly. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed Wednesday

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Northern-stream trough is digging east-southeast across the northern Rockies/High Plains early this morning and should advance into the upper MS Valley by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, then increases in intensity as it moves across lower MI during the afternoon. Large-scale height falls will overspread the Great Lakes/OH-TN Valley region as southwesterly flow strengthens across the downstream warm sector. Latest model guidance suggests the sharp cold front associated with this feature will extend across lower MI-central IL-northern MO at the start of the period. This boundary will serve as a primary focus for thunderstorm development through the period. By mid day, the front will have surged into northwest OH-central IN and modest boundary layer heating is expected across the warm sector downstream. Current thinking is modest destabilization will be noted across much of the OH/TN Valley such that MLCAPE values should be on the order of 1500 J/kg within a strongly sheared environment. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected to develop, in addition to possible line segments and clusters. Large hail is possible with supercells, along with damaging winds and a risk for a few tornadoes. This activity will spread east toward the Middle Atlantic by late afternoon.