yoda

Oh Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024

1300z SPC OTLK disco suggested higher probs .Southern Plains to Southern Appalachians and central Gulf Coast... Convection is increasing in two main regimes either side of the warm/marine front: 1. Elevated convection to its north over north-central TX, predominantly of a hail concern, and forecast to move/expand into the Arklatex over the next few hours. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 717 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details. 2. Warm-sector thunderstorms building gradually from east TX across parts of LA to southern MS. This activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, isolated hail, and occasional severe gusts. See SPC Mesoscale discussions 2294 and 2295, with watches likely over these areas today as well. Peak tornado and severe-gust potential should be from this afternoon into tonight, in and near the "Moderate" and "Enhanced" areas. Perhaps the greatest uncertainty at this time is coverage of supercells in the warm sector during peak instability this afternoon and into evening, following the morning episode, given 1) the need for recovery behind earlier activity and 2) subtle and gradual boundary-layer forcing/convergence would be the main factor contributing to their development. A broad area of favorable moisture, represented by mid-60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints, will contribute to peak MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range from east TX to southwestern MS, and around 1000-1500 J/kg from central MS into central/southern AL where diurnal heating will be less a factor than theta-e advection for preconvective destabilization. Hodographs will favor supercells and tornado potential during the day -- especially near the marine/warm front -- but largest after 00Z east of the Mississippi River where a 45-60-kt LLJ will overlap at least marginally surface-based inflow parcels. SRH of 150-250 J/kg in the lowest 1/2 km, and 200-400 J/kg in the effective-inflow layer, should be attainable. Any sustained, discrete supercell in this environment will pose a threat for cyclic, strong tornado production. As the primary convective band organizes and moves into increasing moisture and LLJ-enlarged hodographs in low levels this evening, embedded LEWP/bowing features may produce both severe gusts and tornadoes. The cumulative tornado threat suggests maintaining "moderate" level probabilities with this outlook cycle, but enough uncertainty remains to preclude a greater unconditional risk area. As the event proceeds through the overnight hours, one or two dominant QLCSs should continue across AL and into portions of GA and the FL Panhandle, with a threat persisting for embedded severe gusts and at least a few tornadoes. ..Edwards/Grams.. 12/28/2024

Woodsworth, LA about to get hit hard

We get one more round tomorrow... MRGL up for most of the region

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1872887141560402245

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. ...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as this activity increases in coverage. Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. This environment will support supercell development, with a potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of these will be possible. The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region. Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by the end of the period. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024

SPC goes MOD risk

Don't mind the 00z CMC look at the end of its run

Yes it was. @psuhoffman is correct. A lot of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast WFOs had their warning criteria amounts increased after the time constraints were removed

00z GEFS brought presents ETA @brooklynwx99 beat me to it

His was 288. Yours is 210...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 MDZ003-VAZ028-030-031-WVZ051>053-231900- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0023.241224T1000Z-241224T1500Z/ Washington-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 300 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a light glaze to a few hundredth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation begins as light freezing rain early Tuesday morning. Some light snow could mix in at times. Precipitation comes to an by late Tuesday morning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 MDZ001-501-WVZ501-503-505-231900- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0023.241224T0900Z-241225T0000Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Grant-Western Mineral- Western Pendleton- 300 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up to half an inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In Maryland, Extreme Western Allegany and Garrett Counties. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation begins as a mix of light snow and freezing rain early Tuesday morning, then transitions to a light freezing rain by late Tuesday morning. A light freezing drizzle could continue through early Tuesday evening.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-501-505-506-526- 527-231900- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0023.241224T1000Z-241224T1800Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 300 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulation of a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch. A dusting to one tenth of an inch of snow is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, northeast, and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation begins as light freezing rain early Tuesday morning along and west of US-15, then begins along the Interstate 95 corridor around or just before sunrise. Some snow could mix in at times, though that is most likely along and north of Interstate 70. Precipitation transitions to a mix of rain and freezing rain late Tuesday morning, before coming to an end early Tuesday afternoon.

Guess we'll see Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024 DCZ001-211200- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 332 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024 .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of flurries. Lows around 30. Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. .TODAY...Sunny. A chance of flurries and sprinkles in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. .TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 19. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. .SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds around 5 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Cold with lows around 14. Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

Lamar is going to be running alot methinks https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/43077938/depleted-ravens-rule-wr-nelson-agholor-vs-steelers Sounds like no Bateman either

https://giphy.com/gifs/reaction-mortal-kombat-mk-j3sauffiYNcio8tY40

I think 18z GFS would be a hit for the time period many have mentioned above in the last few pages. Yes, all caveats apply, but I don't hate the look at 384

Of course all caveats apply, but I liked the look at the end of the 18z GFS

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/12/diontae-johnson-will-not-rejoin-ravens-this-week#ref=home Lol

Other schools along the i81 corridor also are opening 2 hours late tomorrow

Commanders got lucky with that win

Day 14 to 15 Euro at h5 is lulz... perfect placement of the ridge out west and a ton of energy coming down into the Plains into the Gulf from Canada with an SLP in S LA

00z GFS tosses out some mood snow for Christmas afternoon into evening

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1226 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 MDZ502-VAZ503-504-WVZ050-055-502-504-506-150300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0020.241215T1200Z-241216T0600Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Hampshire-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton- 1226 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, western Virginia, and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The combination of snow and ice could result in sporadic power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of snow and sleet is likely from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon, transitioning to a period of freezing rain by Sunday afternoon. Freezing rain or drizzle may persist through early Monday morning.