yoda

The h5 pass beneath us was pretty money though

Looks 2 part? SLP is down in GA at 240

Snow/rain line all the way down by VA/NC border at 237

Light snow 231 into DC metro

225 h5 00z GFS

When they are out of town

Sounds like the Orioles tried to keep Burnes https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/orioles-blue-jays-discussed-franchise-record-contracts-with-corbin-burnes.html

DCA approaches 0 for lows late in the run in lala land lol

*JAWS WATCH* issued

That's a ton of energy out west being dumped at 228 on h5...

HH GFS says no to the 4th... 6th looks cuttery at 192...

>95/80 tor probs, 90/80 wind probs on the PDS TOR Watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Central and Southwest Louisiana Southwest Mississippi Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Numerous severe/supercell thunderstorms are expected to intensify through the afternoon over east Texas and western Louisiana, spreading rapidly northeastward across the watch through early evening. Parameters are becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, and widespread damaging winds through the watch period. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Port Arthur TX to 50 miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

Oops

12z EPS mean was just under 6" at DCA

He was trying a @George BM post

Oh Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024

1300z SPC OTLK disco suggested higher probs .Southern Plains to Southern Appalachians and central Gulf Coast... Convection is increasing in two main regimes either side of the warm/marine front: 1. Elevated convection to its north over north-central TX, predominantly of a hail concern, and forecast to move/expand into the Arklatex over the next few hours. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 717 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details. 2. Warm-sector thunderstorms building gradually from east TX across parts of LA to southern MS. This activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, isolated hail, and occasional severe gusts. See SPC Mesoscale discussions 2294 and 2295, with watches likely over these areas today as well. Peak tornado and severe-gust potential should be from this afternoon into tonight, in and near the "Moderate" and "Enhanced" areas. Perhaps the greatest uncertainty at this time is coverage of supercells in the warm sector during peak instability this afternoon and into evening, following the morning episode, given 1) the need for recovery behind earlier activity and 2) subtle and gradual boundary-layer forcing/convergence would be the main factor contributing to their development. A broad area of favorable moisture, represented by mid-60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints, will contribute to peak MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range from east TX to southwestern MS, and around 1000-1500 J/kg from central MS into central/southern AL where diurnal heating will be less a factor than theta-e advection for preconvective destabilization. Hodographs will favor supercells and tornado potential during the day -- especially near the marine/warm front -- but largest after 00Z east of the Mississippi River where a 45-60-kt LLJ will overlap at least marginally surface-based inflow parcels. SRH of 150-250 J/kg in the lowest 1/2 km, and 200-400 J/kg in the effective-inflow layer, should be attainable. Any sustained, discrete supercell in this environment will pose a threat for cyclic, strong tornado production. As the primary convective band organizes and moves into increasing moisture and LLJ-enlarged hodographs in low levels this evening, embedded LEWP/bowing features may produce both severe gusts and tornadoes. The cumulative tornado threat suggests maintaining "moderate" level probabilities with this outlook cycle, but enough uncertainty remains to preclude a greater unconditional risk area. As the event proceeds through the overnight hours, one or two dominant QLCSs should continue across AL and into portions of GA and the FL Panhandle, with a threat persisting for embedded severe gusts and at least a few tornadoes. ..Edwards/Grams.. 12/28/2024

Woodsworth, LA about to get hit hard

We get one more round tomorrow... MRGL up for most of the region

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1872887141560402245

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. ...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as this activity increases in coverage. Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. This environment will support supercell development, with a potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of these will be possible. The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region. Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by the end of the period. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024

SPC goes MOD risk

Don't mind the 00z CMC look at the end of its run

Yes it was. @psuhoffman is correct. A lot of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast WFOs had their warning criteria amounts increased after the time constraints were removed