yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Tornado Watch(es) coming soon in NC -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0373.html
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Really?
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So ENH risk (because of wind)... I'll go big... as usual lol... 10% TOR hatched, 15% hail, 30 % wind hatched
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DPs beginning to rise through the 50s across the region
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23z HRRR sounding at DCA at 16z MON
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FWIW, 23z HRRR really pumps the SBCAPE in the late morning into early afternoon... 2000+ SBCAPE... you can start seeing the increased surface instability grow as soon as 14z in the SW portions of the LWX CWA
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Hmmm... LWX keeps upgrading the Wind Advisory to HWW for more and more counties... first it was St. Marys and Calvert at 430ish... just now updated again and now includes PG/Charles/King George VA/AA counties ETA: This was reason why at 430 St. Mary's and Calvert were added to HWW per the AFD:
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sorry, what do you mean by "safe" spot?
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Impressive... most impressive
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Seems like LWX is going for it in afternoon disco
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Its probably like 20 miles S of me lol... but I would expect it to come north more tomorrow tbh. But that would depend on what goes on in the SE and western Carolinas tonight
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10% hatched tor is now literally just south of DC metro... EZF is included
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New Day 2 is out... ENH reaches up to around EZF... 10% hatched TOR includes CHO/RIC and is also just south of EZF
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18z EURO was pretty nice per @losetoa6 re SBCAPE
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45 now into DC... 60 getting closer to EZF on 21z SREFs
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Even cutting in half... still ridiculous
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As in like > 1000 J/KG? How much we talking lol
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Not going to post them as there are many -- but the soundings across the region from the 18z NAM at 18z MON are just ridiculously silly. Something we see maybe once in a long while
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So... who's staying up tonight for the 00z NAM run and the new Day 2 outlook?
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Well the afternoon AFD from LWX seems to be leaning that way IMO with its severe talk
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Wouldn't be surprised to see ENH for us on Day 2 tonight and MOD down in the Carolinas... maybe into S VA
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New day 3 map
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LWX states severe threat is increasing in their afternoon AFD
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Regular 12z NAM soundings at 18z MON were not pretty looking at the soundings across the region... suxh as BWI/IAD/DCA/EZF... SBCAPE likely overdone, but even half of what it shows would be dangerous around here
