yoda

Question -- if the LLC circulation gets disrupted by Central America, but the MLC returns over the waters, will it still be Eta? or a new TC entirely?

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely stopped the rapid deepening process. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation interacts with land. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the next 3 days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast period. It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5 days are highly uncertain at this time. The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of west or about 250/4 kt. This motion will take the center across the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days. By 96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted earlier, this future track is quite uncertain. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning. Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 83.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 14.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1800Z 15.0N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 15.7N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 17.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 83.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

wow

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 ...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 80.4W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 Eta has not become appreciably better organized over the past few hours. A large convective band is evident well to the east and northeast of the estimated center, but this band does not have much curvature at this time. A small burst of deep convection is occurring near or over the center, which is likely the early stages of the development of a Central Dense Overcast. Currently, there is a significant amount of lightning in the outer band but little lightning near the center. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Eta will be moving over very warm waters of SSTs above 29 deg C and in an environment of fairly light vertical shear. Therefore, strengthening is likely. The official forecast, like the previous ones, calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane before approaching Central America. There is also a possibility of rapid strengthening, as suggested by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the latest corrected consensus prediction up to the expected landfall and follows the Decay-SHIPS guidance after that point. The center location is somewhat uncertain, and my best estimate of initial motion is about the same as before, or 275/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed significantly. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of Eta should cause a westward or west-southwestward motion for the next few days. This would take the cyclone inland over Central America in 72 hours or so. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the simple model consensus and a little north of the corrected consensus. Key Messages: 1. Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas later today. 2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Hispaniola, northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 15.2N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.3N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.3N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.7N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 14.4N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 14.2N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/0600Z 14.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z 15.0N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Not much change this morning BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 75.7W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

Sounds like ERC is coming soon per disco -- https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html WDPN31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT, POWERFUL SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED 7 NM EYE. WHILE STILL COMPACT IN NATURE IT HAS INCREASED IN SIZE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 160 KTS IS FURTHER PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.5 (155 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) BASED ON RECENT ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.6 (158 KTS). ANALYSIS OF THE EYE WALL STRUCTURES IN SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS IMMINENT. DESPITE THIS, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, CLOUD TOP AND EYE TEMPERATURES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKENING PHASE, TYPICAL OF ERC, HAS NOT YET COMMENCED. STY GONI HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (30 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ESPECIALLY STRONG. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY GONI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE ERC AND, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE, AND A SMALL INCREASE IN VWS (15-20 KTS). STY GONI WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF LUZON, EAST OF MANILA, BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION TO AN INTENSITY OF 75 KTS BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, IT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO AN INTENSITY OF 60 KTS DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH A TOTAL SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 150 NM AT TAU 72. SPECIFICALLY THE NAVGEM TRACK LIES NORTHWARD OF THE OTHER JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS. AS SUCH, THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS AND CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST WITH ONLY NAVGEM PREDICTING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS HAINAN. THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AGREE WITH A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE TO OFFSET THE NORTHWESTWARD BIAS CONTRIBUTED BY THE NAVGEM TRACK.// NNNN

I'm gathering this wont be a US threat but more of a Central American threat

some of the ice accumulation totals from this afternoon and still ongoing are crazy out in OK out of OUN: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0346 PM ICE STORM THOMAS 35.75N 98.75W 10/27/2020 CUSTER OK BROADCAST MEDIA 0.6 INCHES WEST OF THOMAS. TWITTER REPORT WITH PICTURE - MEASURED. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 425 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0400 PM ICE STORM 3 SE NICHOLS HILLS 35.52N 97.50W 10/27/2020 OKLAHOMA OK PUBLIC ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1/2 INCH. ALSO, EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 428 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0400 PM ICE STORM 4 SSE GEARY 35.57N 98.29W 10/27/2020 CANADIAN OK STORM CHASER RADIAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF APPROXIMATELY 0.8 INCHES. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0257 PM ICE STORM 8 W EL RENO 35.53N 98.10W 10/27/2020 CANADIAN OK PUBLIC 0.8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATED ICE ON TREE BRANCHES. TWITTER REPORT WITH PICTURE - MEASURED.

Big ice storm in OK/TX... some places have over 0.3" of ice and another 0.2"-0.4" expected

WSW's are up in Oklahoma and Texas for ice... up to 0.4" of ice is possible... in late October

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 83.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

SNE forum should have some ideas for you... post there and you should get some good responses to your requests

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic about 200 miles east of Bermuda. 1. A broad trough of low pressure, located over the western Caribbean Sea, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly east of the trough. Surface observations, satellite-derived surface wind data, and radar data indicate that a low pressure system has developed along the trough axis just south of Grand Cayman Island. Some gradual development of the low is possible during the next few days while it moves northwestward to northward across western or central Cuba on Saturday, then turning northward to northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, and the central Bahamas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. 1. A trough of low pressure, extending from the Yucatan Channel southeastward into the southwestern Caribbean Sea, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable during the next several days and therefore development of this system is not anticipated as it drifts westward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Roberts

Looks like parts of Iowa (DVN CWA) got a surprise snowfall yesterday https://www.weather.gov/dvn/summary_101920 https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=41.65&lon=-93.34&hr=48

Yay another weak STD/STS coming soon SE of Bermuda... looks like it will park itself there for a while and not do much Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda have not become significantly better organized over the past several hours. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Pasch

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina

Hmmm... perfect timing with a 1035 HP in tandem in Quebec... morning snow it is

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Satellite images indicate that Delta remains a well organized hurricane with a central dense overcast feature and curved bands beyond that. There is still no indication of an eye, however, in geostationary satellite images. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were in Delta a few hours ago and toward the end of that mission, they reported maximum flight-level winds of 102 kt and SFMR winds of 77 kt. Based on a blend of this data, the initial intensity was increased to 85 kt at 0600 UTC. Since the cyclone appears to be generally steady in strength since that time, the wind speed is held at that value. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Delta later today, and that data will help us assess its strength and structure. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged. Delta is currently moving northwestward at 13 kt on the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. The western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken later today as a trough moves eastward across the south-central United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause Delta to turn northward by late tonight and north-northeastward by Friday night. This motion should take the core of the hurricane to the Louisiana coast in a little more than 36 hours (sometime Friday afternoon or evening). After landfall, a turn to the northeast is forecast as a larger trough approaches Delta from the west. The models are in very good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one. Delta is expected to continue gradually strengthening during the next 24 hours while it remains over warm deep waters and in an environment of low wind shear and a high amount of moisture. Based on these favorable environmental conditions and the trend in the models, Delta is forecast to regain major hurricane status by tonight. Just prior to making landfall, the cyclone is forecast to level off in strength or weaken slightly as it moves over the cooler shelf waters and into somewhat less favorable atmospheric conditions. Rapid weakening is forecast after Delta moves inland. The intensity models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category. The aircraft and fairly recent scatterometer data indicate that Delta is gradually growing in size. This trend is expected to continue as Delta approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecast follows a consensus of the global and hurricane regional models. Key Messages: 1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to completion. 2. Significant flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, heavy rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 23.4N 91.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 26.4N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 28.8N 93.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 31.3N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/1800Z 33.3N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0600Z 34.6N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DELTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 91.8W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

Tonights GFS was the lulz for the mountains into SW VA

I am Oh wait... when does the EURO come out again? 2am? Shoot...

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is gradually strengthening while it moves over the open waters of the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Based on a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR wind measurements from the plane, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. The cloud pattern of the hurricane continues to become better organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast, and convective banding features becoming better defined, particularly over the northern semicircle of the circulation. Additional intensification is likely while Delta moves through a favorable environment during the next day or so, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. When the system moves into the northern Gulf, a decrease in oceanic heat content, drier mid-tropospheric air, and increased vertical shear should cause at least slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is above the numerical guidance in 36-48 hours. It should be noted that 1-2 day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category. The global models show a further increase in the size of the hurricane while it moves into the northern Gulf. The official wind radii forecasts are based on a consensus of these model predictions. The latest center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters show a west-northwestward motion, at about 300/15 kt. Delta should turn toward the north-northwest and north over the next 36 hours or so while moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system centered over Florida. When the hurricane moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Delta should turn toward the north-northeast on the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric shortwave over the southern United States. The official track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, respectively. These objective aids are in close agreement with one another. Based on the official forecast, it is time to issue storm surge and hurricane warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Key Messages: 1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to completion. 2. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 22.5N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 23.7N 92.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 30.0N 92.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 34.2N 89.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 37.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED