yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Euro SEAS-5 h5 height anamoly forecast for January was vomit-worthy. It was the ensemble mean for January as well. You guys might be able to sneak something... but down south... ugly ETA: From August 1st though
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00z EURO shows nothing in the tropical department either tonight except for a small SLP north of the islands (Leeward) at 240
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00z GFS tonight shows no hurricanes at all during its entire run... there is a tropical disturbance late in the run but it mills around the Yucatan peninsula and never really develops into much of anything due to land interaction... though it tries to develop as the run ends
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Day 2 MRGL risk (Thursday) for a few damaging wind gusts possible
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Tornado warning for PHL proper
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 450 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Sussex County in southern Delaware... * Until 515 AM EDT. * At 449 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Millville, or 15 miles east of Georgetown, moving north at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Henlopen Acres and Long Neck.
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And 94L is gone pretty much Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located inland over southeastern North Carolina. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so, abundant dry air surrounding the system is likely to limit significant development. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today, stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda tonight, and then drift southwestward on Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Berg
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NHC disagreed on the 2AM TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias, located just offshore of east-central Florida. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands does not have a surface circulation, and the associated shower activity is not well organized. However, environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this system during the next several days, with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday and then stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Confirmed TOG
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Since Day 2 (Sunday) looks meh... here's Day 3 (Monday)
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FWIW, MRGL risk for Sunday and Monday as well from SPC
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Seems Josephine may not be far behind actually even if TD 10 dissipates tomorrow Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located near the central Bahamas, and on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the far eastern Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A westward-moving tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a few disorganized showers. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form early next week. This system is forecast to turn northwestward, and then northward over the western Atlantic north of the Leeward Islands through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. Forecaster Blake
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new day 1 graphic with disco... 2/5/15
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Josephine
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And will be gone by tomorrow night lol
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Imagine, for example, 5 hurricanes develop off the CV islands... if they all travel over the same path over and over, the water heat content won't be as high as if they all went over water that had not yet been disturbed by prior tropical systems. Perhaps I am overthinking... but I think that's what would happen
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True... maybe we get saved by some overturning/upwelling though if hurricanes keep going over the same paths of water
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Interesting. Wonder what made them change to the 10mph intervals
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Havent seen a 65mph in a warning from LWX before BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Western Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Arlington County in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Eastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 316 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Potomac to near Linton Hall, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph and isolated hail up to quarter size. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Bethesda, Bowie, Annandale, Clinton, Springfield, College Park, Fort Washington, Greenbelt, Fairfax, Langley Park, Beltsville, Fort Hunt, Vienna, Groveton, Forestville, Falls Church, Huntington and Coral Hills. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. &&
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Just to south good stuff? Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 304 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 MDC031-221930- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0276.000000T0000Z-200722T1930Z/ Montgomery MD- 304 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY... At 303 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Green Valley to near Poolesville, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Scattered damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to quarter size. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Germantown, Damascus, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Poolesville, Boyds, Clarksburg, Darnestown, Barnesville, Dickerson, Beallsville and Dawsonville.
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SLGT risk for severe today... damaging winds look to be biggest threat
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Another MRGL risk for today... mainly for damaging wind gusts SLGT risk for Wednesday... again for damaging winds
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3 straight days of MRGL risk is pretty good
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First moderate risk day in quite a long time... since mid June? Wind driven... and it's a small mod risk ETA: never seen a hatched wind on a 15 percent before... on the new Day 2
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https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1282664827299610627
