yoda

Hmmm... updated morning discussion sounds intriguing for this afternoon and evening Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1035 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front stalled in the region today will be the focus of a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A much stronger front later Thursday and Thursday night will result in more widespread showers and storms. High pressure will return Friday and linger into the weekend, with cooler and drier air taking hold. Another system may approach early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid-morning update: Current visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the area, allowing strong daytime heating to occur. 12z IAD sounding shows steeper than climo mid-level lapse rates (6.5 C/km) and lots of dry air in the mid- upper levels. With strong daytime heating occurring, low- level lapse rates are expected to become very steep as well (exceeding 9.5 C/km). The sounding shows 1164 J/kg of DCAPE prior to daytime heating, and that value should only increase. The combination of steep low-level lapse rates, better than climo mid-level lapse rates, high DCAPE, and decent flow in the mid- levels suggests that damaging winds could be a threat with any storms this afternoon. Can`t rule out an instance or two of large hail with any stronger storms either, given the better than climo mid- level lapse rates, ample dry air in the mid- levels, and decent shear through a deep layer. In the absence of stronger forcing for ascent both aloft and at the surface, the smaller details with respect to placement and timing of storms remain a bit up in the air. We`ll continue to monitor trends through the remainder of the day.

Some pretty nice soundings showing up on 12z NAM for 21z THUR and 00z FRI across the region Like KMRB and KHGR at 21z THUR

Interesting...

Thursday... hmm... nice SPC map. I know it's i66 north for now... but can see it coming south some... some beefy wording in the morning day 2 disco too

Where else was he going lol

@nj2va @nw baltimore wx @H2O Dillon traded to Jets for 2 2nd round picks (2022 and 2023 drafts) https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2021/07/brenden-dillon-dealt-to-winnipeg-jets.html#ref=home

Sunday then midweek maybe?

Coach gone for not getting vaccine https://www.profootballrumors.com/2021/07/patriots-co-offensive-line-coach-off-staff-due-to-covid-19-policy#ref=home

Check in with our resident brewer in WV... at least I think he is

Looks like a decent cell in central Loudoun already Intiation also NW of i81 corridor (Cumberland to MRB area)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Southeast Massachusetts Central and Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Southeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Northeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1155 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along a weak cold front extending from northern Virginia into eastern Massachusetts. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

Watch up until 8pm for DC and Arlington/Loudoun/Fairfax/Prince William counties in VA Pretty good chunk of MD in the watch too... as far west as Washington County in the watch... includes all of S MD into the Delmarva

Looks like a watch coming soon for DC and to the northeast along i95 corridor into Delmarva

You may wish to fix this post lol

Maybe a few isolated severe storms this afternoon?

You get a MRGL from SPC

Late weekend into next week could be fun if things are timed right

@Windspeed @WxWatcher007

92/76 at 2pm at DCA... yuck

Bet this will be the year we get snow on December 5th... the forum gets excited... then we get slapped back to reality

Looks like an active pattern and chance for daily severe starting tomorrow reading the morning AFD

Isn't @frd out in Delaware?

a bit further NW actually

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1113 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central St. Marys County in southern Maryland... Southern Calvert County in southern Maryland... * Until 1145 PM EDT. * At 1112 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Patuxent River Naval Air Station, or near Lexington Park, moving northwest at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Lexington Park, Cuckold Creek, Town Creek, California, Lusby, Patuxent River Naval Air Station, Drum Point and Park Hall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 218 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 DCZ001-090230- /O.EXA.KLWX.FF.A.0005.210708T2100Z-210709T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia- Including the cities of Washington 218 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of DC, including the following : District of Columbia. * Through Friday morning. * Thunderstorms have been moving across the DC metro area over the past hour, and look to continue doing so for the next couple of hours. Additionally, steadier rainfall may arrive this evening into tonight in association with Tropical Storm Elsa, which could lead to some isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in poor drainage areas. * Moderate to heavy rainfall over a short time period may cause streams and creeks to quickly rise out of their banks, potentially leading to instances of flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.