yoda

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 410 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 VAZ060-061-066>069-161715- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0005.210218T0600Z-210219T0600Z/ Prince Edward-Cumberland-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan- Including the cities of Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Fort Mitchell, Kells Corner, Arvins Store, Loves Mill, Lunenburg, Nutbush, Rehoboth, Crewe, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, and Genito 410 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one quarter to one half an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 410 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 VAZ048-062-509-510-161715- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0005.210218T0600Z-210219T0600Z/ Fluvanna-Goochland-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Goochland, Louisa, and Mineral 410 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of three tenths to four tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Fluvanna, Goochland, Western Louisa and Eastern Louisa Counties. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ou_sams/status/1361544008019943431

Meanwhile... down in SW GA yesterday afternoon https://mobile.twitter.com/ou_sams/status/1361434687059726338 And in NC tonight https://mobile.twitter.com/ou_sams/status/1361544008019943431

Looking at the 00z EPS individual members at hour 108, we find the following: 43/50 show 2"+ snow at DCA ~21/50 show 6"+ snow at DCA

00z EPS snowfall mean is a push SE once again compared to 18z... by a good 50 to 60 miles

interesting... morning winter map update from LWX

00z EPS snow mean def improved... moved SE good 75 miles with both 2 inch and 6 inch lines DCA was 1.6 at 18z... 3.0 at 00z Compared 00z 108 to 18z 114 ETA: About 35/36 out of the 50 individual members have DCA at 2"+ of snow

06z RGEM is a nice snow to major sleet/ice storm

Sorry I made a big mistake... I thought PW updated to 06z RGEM automatically... but you have to do it manually... so this is all 00z stuff I'll do 06z for real in a minute... sorry guys

Euro does drop 0.15 to 0.25" of ice across the region after the snow... down towards CHO and just SW of EZF its lights out ice

No... DCA does not go above 32 till Friday

Wow... surprising from LWX winter page

Def major ice in here with the snow... but this is what PW shows for the 00z UKIE

00z UKMET also has some decent h7 frontogensis in the region at hour 84 and 90

I'll take what the 00z UKMET is showing tonight... DCA does not get above 32 at all during the Thursday event High reaches 34/35 on Friday... stay in the 20s on Saturday

PW has the soundings for CMC... but they don't seem to line up with what the precip type/rate map shows. For example... DCA is 33 and rain on the sounding at 90 that I pull up... but on the precip type/rate it says its supposed to be heavy sleet with the green (rain) close to 100 miles SE of DC

Good snow sounding there for at least a few more hours even though its becoming isothermal

@nj2va @nw baltimore wx @Scraff Always good to beat the Capitals... 6-3 win this afternoon

Looks like 3 to 5 inches snow then monster ice after... we take lol

On 00z EPS out to 144 hours... 23/50 individ members have 2"+ at DCA

00z EPS mean is a minor push SE with the snowfall compared to 18z... not a big push... but a def SE push nonetheless RE: 2mT 00z EPS mean has everyone in 20s (except extreme NW LWX CWA in the upper teens) at 102 (06z THUR) and 108 (12z THUR). Everybody is still fine at 114 (18z THUR) except for S MD/EZF which are at 32/33. At 120 (00z FRI), I95 corridor is 32 degree dividing line. 126 (06z FRI) BR is the 32 degree dividing line... mid 30s along i95 and around 40 in St. Mary's county. 132 (12z FRI) 32 degree dividing line is out by i81 corridor, BR is mid 30s, i95 upper 30s, S MD low 40s. 138 (18z FRI) everyone above freezing -- upper 30s i81 corridor with 40-45 everyone else ETA: QPF is 0.5-0.75 area wide by 126

Mace Windu says I don't think so

ISW confirmed in DC PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1052 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0631 PM FREEZING RAIN 1 S ADAMS MORGAN 38.91N 77.04W 02/13/2021 M0.25 INCH DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC NWS EMPLOYEE

So CMC/PARA GFS/UKIE/EURO were all nice to us on their 00z runs for Thurs... hmm... Nah... we know how this ends