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uh oh Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ALC125-172000- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-210317T2000Z/ Tuscaloosa AL- 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY... At 235 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Moundville, or 12 miles south of Tuscaloosa, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Tuscaloosa, Moundville, Coaling, University Mall, McFarland Mall, Shelton State Community College, Tuscaloosa Amphitheater, Bryant Denny Stadium, Englewood, Little Sandy, Maxwell, University Of Alabama Quad, Taylorville, Hull, Mound State Park, Duncanville and Stillman College.

Mesoscale Discussion 0209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Areas affected...Central AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 29...33... Valid 171924Z - 172100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 29, 33 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor more favorable for the development of strong tornadoes may be evolving across central AL. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from BMX, GWX, and MOB continues to show a cluster of supercells over west-central AL. The downstream air mass is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s. As noted in the recent BMX sounding, this air mass is less buoyant than farther west (along the central MS/AL border) where this cluster initially developed. However, in contrast to the slightly less favorable thermodynamics, surface winds here are more southeasterly, veering to southerly in the low-levels, and then southwesterly farther aloft. This is resulting in considerable low-level vertical shear. Recent VAD profile from BMX sampled 350+ m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Given the already organized character of these storms, potential exists for the development of strong tornadoes if a more discrete nature can be maintained. ..Mosier.. 03/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

Well hmmm -- from this afternoon's LWX AFD re the chance of some storms @high risk @Kmlwx

Well if I read the article I would know lol -- https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

So... then we get Hurricane #21? Like after all the names are used, we just go to the next number in line? As in if William was the 20th name on the list that is

TOR Watch up for SW MO/NE OK/W AR till 8pm

True... hopefully the increase in the LLJ later this evening into overnight doesn't make the situation even worse

Written by Broyles Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes is possible on Thursday from parts of east-central Georgia northeastward across South Carolina and North Carolina. Significant tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible from morning into afternoon. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible from parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into the southern and central Appalachians. ...North Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia/Virginia/Florida... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday as a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet moves across the Southeast and Carolinas. At the surface, a low will move eastward into the central Appalachians. At 12Z, a warm front will be located from northern Georgia eastward across northern South Carolina. This boundary will move northward across central and eastern North Carolina during the morning. To the south of this front, surface dewpoints across the warm sector will be in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of moderate instability is expected to develop to the south of the warm front across eastern North Carolina by late morning. Convective development will be aided by the low-level jet. Severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat, is expected during the mid morning hours. Further to the west, a band of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level system will overspread the central Appalachians around midday. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate just ahead of this band of ascent around midday and move eastward into the Appalachian foothills during the early afternoon. Ahead of the storms, the environment will consist of MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt and storm relative helicities of 300 to 350 m2/s2. This will support intense supercell development. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be likely with the stronger storms. A long-track tornado will be possible along or in the vicinity of the warm front. The time of maximum threat is forecast to be in the 18Z to 22Z time window. A regional outbreak of severe storms, along with several significant tornadoes are expected from discrete cells that develop across the warm sector from central North Carolina southward across much of South Carolina. Further to the southwest into Georgia, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move into the area form the west during the morning. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop just ahead of this line by late morning with instability continuing to increase through the afternoon. This line of storms will have access to a strong low-level jet, extending northeastward across south-central and eastern Georgia. the environment should have MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 0-6 Km shear of 60 to 70 kt. This will be favorable for supercell and severe bowing line segments. Supercells that form in the line may produce tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. A potential for significant tornadoes will exist with cells that form at the north end of gaps in the line. This band of storms is expected to be accompanied by widespread wind damage, moving across eastern Georgia and South Carolina during the mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts of greater than 65 kt will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. The southern part of the band may extend as far south as the Florida Panhandle, where a severe threat will exist in the morning and early afternoon.

Real quick update -- New DAY 2 continues with large MOD risk from GA into NC 45% hatched wind introduced in E GA/SC into S NC

Yes. It goes from 12z to 12z if I remember correctly

I'm not quite clear on what you are asking... but the TOR probs go up to 60 percent. I believe its been 60 percent on different event outlooks at 1630z

45 TOR issued in 1630 OTLK

I dunno... that division with TB/FLA/CAR looks pretty nice too

I think we pretty much know who is going to make the playoffs out of our "division" this year... I'm willing to bet its WSH/NYI/PIT/BOS. Now in what order remains to be seen. Remember for this year, the playoffs start within your own division... so the 1 seed plays the 4 seed and the 2 seed plays the 3 seed. So right now, it would be WSH/BOS and PIT/NYI

We might get our first rumbles of thunder and lightning tomorrow evening

@weatherwiz will be disappoint if he's not out there then

Could be the first HIGH risk of the year tomorrow down in AL/MS per new DAY 2 OTLK from SPC

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A compact and intense upper low over the southern Plains will eject eastward to the Ozark Plateau/lower MS Valley on Wednesday. A surface low centered over northeast OK will develop east/northeast in tandem with the upper system. At the beginning of the period, a cold front will extend southward from the low across eastern OK into eastern TX before arcing southwest into south TX. A warm front draped northwest to southeast from near the MO/AR border into northern AL will gradually lift northward through the period. There is some uncertainty in how far north this boundary will lift across northern GA/eastern TN given strong cold air damming across the Carolinas until very late in the period. The cold front should push eastward to Middle TN/central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Across the broad warm sector, dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s are expected beneath steepening lapse rates and intense vertical shear, resulting in an environment capable of supporting a widespread severe weather outbreak. ...Southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning near the surface low, southward along the cold front, and eastward along the northward retreating warm front from central AR into northern MS/AL. Any convection north of the warm front will be elevated and pose a threat mainly for large hail. However, shear profiles will improve through the morning and surface-based storms near the triple point and along the warm front are possible and will increase the risk for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. Further south along the cold front across eastern OK into eastern TX, convection will move into an increasing unstable and moist environment. A line of supercells and line segments is expected to develop as convection moves into AR and approaches the Sabine Valley. All severe hazards are expected with this activity from Wednesday morning into the afternoon. ...Lower MS Valley into AL/GA... Multiple rounds of intense, severe convection will be possible, mainly across MS/AL on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Convection will intensify along the eastward progressing cold front across central and eastern AR/LA during the late morning/afternoon as it encounters effective shear greater than 60 kt, MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Fast storm motion, with 925-700 mb flow greater than 40 kt will support widespread damaging gusts with some gusts greater than 65 kt expected. Large hail (some greater than 2 inch in diameter, especially from the AR/MO border into northern LA, southwest TN and northern/central MS) is also expected with this activity. Further east across northeast LA into MS and AL a more concerning scenario appears possible. Most forecast guidance agrees that a round of afternoon thunderstorms are expected. This activity is expected to develop in weaker ascent, driven by heating and low level warm advection. Strong 0-3 km shear near 30-40 kt will already be in place with enlarged low level hodographs evident. Given weaker forcing, this activity will have an opportunity to remain more discrete and any cell will quickly become a supercell capable of producing strong tornadoes. As a 40-50 kt low level jet increases around 00-03z, intense supercells are expected to advance eastward along with the cold front across MS and into AL overnight. This will bring a second round of significant severe storms capable of intense tornadoes, large hail and intense damaging winds across much of MS/AL. If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z tonight. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2021

HIGH risk could be coming in new Day 1 OTLK tomorrow per disco

New 1730z OTLK Day 2 remains MOD... large area of hatched sig wind on 1730z OTLK introduced as well as larger hail hatching since 30% contour was increased in size by a large amount Also MOD/ENH risk added back west and southwestward into NE LA and central into E AR