yoda

Major in 3 days Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C have increased over and to the west of the low-level center since the previous advisory. Subjective satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, while the most recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are T2.8/41 kt from ADT and 37 kt from SATCON. An average of these intensity estimates support increasing the advisory intensity to 40 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Larry. In addition, 0300 UTC and 0700 UTC observations from ship VRNF3, which recently passed through the center of Larry, reported a pressure of 1006.8 mb and winds near 25 kt. These data were the basis for the estimated central pressure of 1003 mb, a pressure value that also supports an intensity of 40 kt. Larry has turned more westward over the past several hours, and the new motion estimate is 280/17 kt. Larry is expected to move around the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general west motion for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday, and a northwestward motion over the weekend and continuing into early next week. There has been a pronounced westward shift in the track guidance for this cycle, with the greatest shift coming from the GFS model. Over the past 36 hours, the GFS has shifted its track westward by more than 500 nmi, and even the latest shift still keeps the GFS model the easternmost track forecast in the guidance suite. In contrast, the ECMWF and UKMET models, which lie along the westernmost portion of the guidance envelope, have been fairly stable. Owing to the westward shift in the overall guidance envelope, and considering the GFS solution as an outlier model, the new NHC forecast track has also been shifted westward, and lies between the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model to the south, and the tightly packed TVCA simple-consensus model and FSSE corrected-consensus model to the north. Given the poor handling of the ridge to the north of Larry by the GFS, subsequent NHC forecast tracks may have to be shifted farther west. Given the improved inner-core wind field based on earlier ASCAT wind data and reports from ship VRNF3, along with warm sea-surface temperatures of 28 deg C and light easterly to southeasterly vertical shear of around 5 kt, steady strengthening is expected for the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours when Larry is expected to be a hurricane and have a well-established and tighter inner-core wind field and possibly an eye, rapid intensification is forecast, with Larry becoming a major hurricane by 72 hour. This in large part due to the massive equatorward upper-level outflow pattern that all of the global and regional models are forecasting, which is the same type of outflow pattern that recently occurred with Hurricane Ida. The new official intensity forecast is above the previous advisory forecast by about 10 kt at all forecast times, and conservatively follows an average of the Decay-SHIPS, COAMPS-TC, FSSE, and ECMWF models. This intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance envelope and is above the other consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 12.3N 24.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 12.5N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 12.6N 30.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 13.1N 33.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 13.6N 36.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 14.4N 39.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 15.5N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 18.2N 46.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 21.3N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH $$

@CAPE should like reading the morning AFD from Mt. Holly

Good morning Larry BULLETIN Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LARRY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 24.8W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 24.8 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Larry is forecast to become a hurricane by late Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Morning AFD from LWX out AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 430 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Ida will impact the area today through early Thursday as it exits to the north and east. High pressure will build over the area late Thursday and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The remnants of Ida will be the main concern for today and tonight as the center of low pressure is currently situated over central TN and moving to the NE. Current radar coverage has the initial interaction with the mid-lat trough and Ida bringing increased showers and storms for areas along and north of I-66 with some embedded supercells bringing torrential rainfall near the DC metro areas and points further north and east. Some breaks in the initial banding will alleviate rainfall after morning rush hour and last for a few hours. Areas west of the Blue Ridge will begin to see the bulk of the precip from Ida by late morning, bringing rainfall totals of 3-6" with localized higher amounts across the WV panhandle and western MD to some central MD areas. Latest QPF max guidance has trended further north into PA, while still bringing potential widespread heavy rainfall across portions of the forecast area (totals decrease further SW). With this in mind, flash flood watches have been issued for the entire forecast area (early Wednesday morning start for west of the Blue Ridge Mts, late morning start east of the Blue Ridge Mts). Flash flooding capabilities in comparison of the two regions would be more prevalent west of the Blue Ridge Mts in terms of coverage vs east with those areas being more conditional on strong embedded thunderstorms that could produce torrential rainfall. Areas further south and east of the main interaction with the upper trough and Ida will be the main areas of concern for increased instability throughout the day. With MLCAPE values continuing to increase throughout the day (1500+ j/kg) by the early afternoon, steep low-level lapse rates, 150+ 0-1 km SRH, and 40-50 knots of flow through the midlevels, the threat for supercell thunderstorms extending across areas east of the Blue Ridge exists for this afternoon through tonight. SPC has continued an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms today for areas near the DC metro area and points further north and east. Main threats will be damaging wind gusts and multiple tornadoes possible for the afternoon hours on through early tonight before conditions begin to improve. Conditions will improve late tonight from SW to NE as the remnants of Ida move offshore. Should see most rainfall coverage begin to dissipate by midnight and 2 AM and move out of the forecast area, leading to only a few showers near the I-95 corridor.

One more strong storm crossing into Maryland from Loudoun County in VA

No rain shield for you lol

Rotation marker quickly showed up there too on Radarscope

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 415 AM EDT. * At 324 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ballston, or over Arlington, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Bethesda, Bowie, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville, Forestville, Largo, Coral Hills, Bladensburg, University of Maryland, Nationals Park, Fedex Field, Howard University, Gallaudet University, Fort Totten, RFK Stadium, Laurel and Fairland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for District of Columbia...central Maryland...and northern Virginia. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for District of Columbia...central Maryland...and northern Virginia

06z HRRR doesn't look very nice on its sim radar from 17z to about 23z later today... as in looks like numerous sups

DC about to be hit BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 259 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Arlington County in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Eastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... * Until 345 AM EDT. * At 259 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Fairfax to near Burke to near Lake Ridge, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Annandale, Springfield, Fort Washington, Fairfax, Fort Hunt, Vienna, Groveton, Falls Church, Huntington, Mantua, Fort Belvoir, Pimmit Hills, Reagan National Airport, Mclean, Rosslyn, Crystal City, Burke and Oakton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for District of Columbia...central Maryland...and northern Virginia. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for District of Columbia...central Maryland...and northern Virginia. &&

Stafford and Rappahannock County schools are closed today

Loud lightning strikes

Morning AFD should be a fun read in the next hour or so

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 234 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The northwestern City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 315 AM EDT. * At 234 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Centreville, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, Reston, Herndon, Fairfax, Vienna, Oakton, Sterling, Chantilly, Wolf Trap and Dunn Loring. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia.

South of Warrenton could use a TW right now

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes and scattered damaging winds appear probable across parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the remnants of Ida move through the region later today. Isolated strong/severe storms may also occur across portions of the northern/central Plains. ...Middle Atlantic... Remnants of Ida are currently spreading northeast across the southern Appalachians early this morning. Surface low associated with this feature is forecast to track into southern WV by the start of the day1 period, then advance into northern VA by early afternoon. In response, warm front should advance north across NJ, ultimately orienting itself near Long Island during the evening. This boundary will serve as the northern demarcation of meaningful tornado potential. Have opted to extend 10% tornado probabilities a bit farther north across NJ due to the warm sector that should spread across much of the Garden State. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a more open short-wave trough in association with the remnants of Ida. This feature will eject into WV by 18z, then east during the overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow translates into southern New England. Latest model guidance continues to suggest LLJ will strengthen across the Delmarva into NJ ahead of the low and strong vertical shear will prove sufficient for sustaining supercells. Additionally, while very moist air mass (PW values 2"+) will overspread this corridor, some boundary-layer heating is expected, especially across the Delmarva into southern NJ where surface temperatures could approach 80F. This should aid buoyancy and increase the likelihood for robust updrafts. Given the strength of the wind field, tornadoes appear possible with supercells until the surface low advances off the NJ coast later in the evening.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 142 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... * Until 230 AM EDT. * At 142 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or 10 miles south of Warrenton, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Warrenton, Bealeton, New Baltimore, Opal, Midland, Airlie, Broken Hill, Auburn and Casanova. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia. && LAT...LON 3875 7766 3870 7763 3855 7781 3857 7786 3858 7787 3859 7787 3860 7786 3861 7787 3862 7786 3863 7787 3881 7779 TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 214DEG 22KT 3857 7784 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

ENH risk for new Day 1 SPC OTLK... N VA into DC along with C MD into the Delmarva... 10% tor and 15% wind

Big hail core showing up on the newly warned supercell on the NWS radar

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 109 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... * Until 200 AM EDT. * At 109 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast of Culpeper, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Rhoadesville, Lois, Everona, Verdiersville, Burr Hill, Locust Grove, Flat Run, Lignum, Lake Of The Woods, Richardsville, Morrisville, Goldvein, Sumerduck and Raccoon Ford. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern and central Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern and central Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia.

Looks like it cycled (I think?)... hook echo is now further SE with new hail marker of 1.5"

40/20 on the tor probs ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2021 TORNADO WATCH 481 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DCC001-011200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0481.210901T0455Z-210901T1200Z/ DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-510-011200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0481.210901T0455Z-210901T1200Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY VAC013-059-061-107-153-179-510-600-610-630-683-685-011200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0481.210901T0455Z-210901T1200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON FAIRFAX FAUQUIER LOUDOUN PRINCE WILLIAM STAFFORD VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK