yoda

CMC should be a hit looking at 120 and 144

Well 00z gfs definitely won't be as good as 18z as a cutoff h5 low just offshore CA appears not allowing the s/w to dig as far west

I've been following the SNE thread on the storm and even ORH was mentioning how unique this storm path is

There hasnt been this type of track before so...

@mattie g does this help?

Should be a really intriguing AFD coming within the hour

Hitting the winds in all the watch language to...

H/T @CoastalWx

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 251 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-503>505-507-VAZ052>056-502-506-150400- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun- 251 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Significant snow and wintry precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are most likely, with up to 5 inches possible. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central and northern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 to 3 inches per hour late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening, resulting in nearly impassable roads.

Went all the way into i95 corridor

WSW expanded eastward to include i95 corridor and DC metro

Looks good... 2 to 4 is what I'm thinking as well for DC metro

Alot going on at h5 at 240 though

Lol at 240

I see below zero lows late next week along i81 corridor... single digits to i95 corridor

Arctic cold and not much

Remember, -PNA

12z GFS says mod snow DC metro 12z Mon... interesting

Lol NAM turns C VA into MD into an ice rink

Nice crunchy snow on the ground

I'll take the NAM... snow to ice to an hour or so of rain to dry slot

That's why I think it comes in light for a few minutes... then it's hot and heavy until the switchover. Rates will be over 1" per hour for however long we can snow IMO

I think we get one of those "walls of snow" that comes in from the SW hot and heavy... then we see how long we can hold on before the pingers start. If we can get the snow in here by let's say 19z... and get 4 to 6 hours of heavy snowfall... I would take that before we mix. Also seems that the dry slot will be moving through our area too on most models... so hopefully by the time we get above freezing its just some light rain and the dry slot ends our precip so we can at least enjoy the snow and ice that is left lol

lol 06z GFS drops a mini ice storm for DC metro... 0.3" to 0.5"... really weird