yoda

Centreville storm looks nice and STW

Confirmed TOR in SE VA right now BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 456 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Tornado Warning for... The western City of Norfolk in southeastern Virginia... The northern City of Portsmouth in southeastern Virginia... Northeastern Isle of Wight County in southeastern Virginia... The northeastern City of Suffolk in southeastern Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 455 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Crittenden, or near Carrolton, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Crittenden around 500 PM EDT. Churchland around 515 PM EDT. Portsmouth around 520 PM EDT. Old Dominion University and Norfolk NAS around 525 PM EDT. Norfolk and Ghent around 530 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Huntersville, Hobson and Carrollton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please report severe weather by calling 757-899-2415, posting to the NWS Wakefield Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSWAKEFIELDVA. && LAT...LON 3683 7632 3685 7639 3687 7640 3687 7642 3686 7643 3690 7657 3699 7656 3698 7647 3695 7643 3697 7639 3696 7628 3688 7628 TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 285DEG 22KT 3694 7653 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

Ping pong ball sized hail in the new SWS

Is its just because close to radar or is the Loudoun cell hooking?

^ 2.50" hail tag on thar cell on Radarscope

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 432 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Stafford County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... South central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... North central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 432 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles south of Bealeton, or 13 miles east of Culpeper, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Flat Run, Chancellorsville, Ramoth, Lignum, Storck, Holly Corner, Dunavant, Lake Of The Woods, Richardsville, Glendie, Hartwood, Goldvein, Sumerduck and Cookstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

New storms with lightning firing back in W MD

I don't think so

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1111.html

Ping pong ball sized hail with the storm now per trained spotters

Seeing some hooking tendency on the cell and some purple showing up on Radarscope

Looks right it made a SE turn from its prior east movement

Just got warned... tagged at 1.75" hail marker

Well written discussion this morning from LWX NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A potent upper-level shortwave is moving through the Ohio Valley into Tennessee early this morning. In fact, you can see a reflection to the surface in the form of low pressure. Increased divergence aloft has caused weak low pressure to develop around a boundary near the Virginia Piedmont. Light southeast winds have developed in response to this low, causing a little moisture advection as well as low-level convergence around the Piedmont and east of Interstate 95. A few showers and thunderstorms have developed across these areas early this morning, and this may continue. The threat for severe storms seems low since instability is still limited, but small hail and gusty winds are possible. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are also associated with the potent shortwave/low pressure over southeastern Ohio into WV and PA. This activity will move into the area from the northwest early this morning. There is a relative min in instability across northern VA, the Potomac Highlands and eastern WV, so while there will be showers with perhaps a few thunderstorms, the probability for severe storms is low. A stronger storm may impact areas west of the Allegheny Front between 5 and 8 AM this morning where instability may be a bit higher on the western side of the mountains. The shortwave will move through our area later this morning into this afternoon, and a band of showers along with a couple thunderstorms will continue to gradually push southeast during this time. Latest guidance continues to show activity strengthening along the outflow boundary of this system late this morning into this afternoon. This is due to falling heights and daytime heating ahead of it. With stronger shear profiles and steep low-level lapse rates, this suggests that some storms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. Exactly how far north and west the severe threat makes it with the first round is uncertain, but it does appear that the best chance for strong to severe storms will be across central Virginia south of Interstate 66 and east of Interstate 95 across central MD into the Baltimore Metropolitan area as well as northeastern MD between 15 to 18z, and around 18-21z for southern MD. However, the potent shortwave will lag behind, passing through our area late this afternoon and evening. The cold front associated with this system will due so during this time as well. Therefore, there will be a period where the atmosphere can recharge around mid to late afternoon ahead of the cold front. This is tough to do, but given the longer days this time of year and cold air aloft, it seems likely at this time. Therefore, more showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop ahead of the cold front (best chance near and east of Interstate 81) around mid to late afternoon before propagating eastward toward the Bay this evening. More severe storms are possible due to steep low-level lapse rates and strong shear profiles as well as more DCAPE during this time as well. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. The cold front will move off to the east later this evening into the early overnight while the upper-level trough axis swings through. A northwest flow will gradually dry things out during this time, and it will turn out cool and less humid overnight with falling dewpoints.

Pop up storm down by Orange

Hmmm... interesting choice by the USMNT... Berhalter to return as coach

More about it -- https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202306142127-KLWX-NOUS41-PNSLWX

Nope... "capable of producing a tornado" per latest update

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cleveland OH 712 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Ottawa County in northwestern Ohio... Erie County in north central Ohio... Northeastern Sandusky County in northwestern Ohio... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 711 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Port Clinton and Vickery, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. This storm has a history of producing funnel clouds and potential tornado damage. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Sandusky, Port Clinton, Northern Milan, Castalia, Marblehead, Bay View, Whites Landing, Bloomingville, Sandusky South, Vickery and Fairview Lanes.

Storms in OH are packing a punch with 2" hail and confirmed tornadoes

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 704 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 OHC123-143-152315- /O.COR.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230615T2315Z/ Ottawa OH-Sandusky OH- 704 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN SANDUSKY COUNTIES... At 703 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Oak Harbor, or 7 miles north of Fremont, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. At 656 PM, emergency management reported a tornado along the Sandusky and Ottawa County line near state route 19. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Whites Landing and Vickery. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

LWX still likes tomorrow per afternoon AFD .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Closed 500 mb low will be moving across Pennsylvania Friday and help trigger additional showers and thunderstorms with muliple rounds of showers/t-storms expected. As opposed to last Monday, this time mid-level lapse rates look significantly steeper and cloud cover thinner with plenty of heating contributing to moderately unstable conditions. Risk of severe wx looks greater than last Monday particularly east of I-95. Convection is likely to persist well into the evening over eastern areas, but the severe threat is likely to wane quickly after 7PM.

Yes please to the CanSIPS

Interested in what kind of watches are issued. As the MCD says, it will be a tornado watch. However, with winds likely over 80 mph (I'm guess text will say to 90mph and hail to 4" in diameter)... could they go PDS just to cover everything even though no violent tornadoes are likely?