yoda

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ003>006-507-VAZ028>031-036>040-050-051-501-505-WVZ051>053-030015- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0004.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Frederick-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 to 36 degrees will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northern Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ502-VAZ025>027-507-508-WVZ050-055-502-504-030015- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 degrees expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany County. In Virginia, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Shenandoah, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, and Hardy Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ501-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501-503-505-506-030015- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Eastern Garrett, Extreme Western Allegany, and Western Garrett Counties. In Virginia, Eastern Highland and Western Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Interesting.... morning day 2 from SPC ..Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic... Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

Hmmmm... afternoon AFD from LWX about Wednesday. Granted we will likely fail... but only chance for a while The better chance for showers and some thunderstorms would be on Wednesday as a brunt of the upper trough moves toward the Eastern Seaboard. A remnant MCV will likely be wrapped up in this larger scale trough, the timing and amplitude of which will dictate the extent of any strong to severe weather in the Mid- Atlantic. As is typical with these features, their finer scale details (as well as leftover upstream convective debris) cast uncertainty into the extent of heating/instability. Conditionally speaking, increasing winds throughout the lower/mid troposphere on Wednesday as this wave approaches. Large scale ascent also increases. The most likely area for appreciable instability to develop would be southwest of a line from roughly Elkins WV to Ocean City MD. This area is closer to the source of low-level moisture return, and may see some better heating southeast of more abundant clouds and in the vicinity of a developing warm frontal feature. Resultant thunderstorm activity may tend to track along the warm front later in the day, again contingent upon the extent of available instability. Some risk for gusty to damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two may develop, with an even more conditional risk of hail should stronger more discrete cells develop.

Surprised that its been 15 years since the April 27 2011 event... popped up on my FB memories

Cell east of FDK looks interesting in Maryland

Winner?

A few rumbles and some rain here

I hope not

Bye Caps

Would be a shame if the Capitals lost today in regulation to the Penguins and the Flyers beat the Jets

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 MDZ003>006-008-011-503>508-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053-055-056- 501-502-505-506-526-527-WVZ051>053-070200- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0001.260408T0400Z-260408T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page- Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange- Culpeper-Fairfax-Stafford-Spotsylvania-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures 25 to 31 degrees possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northeast Maryland, central, northern, and northeast Virginia, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

12z model suite doesn't look enticing for precipitation over the next two weeks. GFS is the "wettest"... CMC and Euro quite dry

This was in this mornings AFD from LWX High pressure will build to our north over the Great Lakes Tuesday, leading to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will run about 10 degrees below normal, with highs for most in the upper 40s and 50s (upper 30s to low 40s mountains). A northwesterly breeze of around 20 mph will make it feel even cooler. High pressure will become centered to our north over the Southern Tier of NY Tuesday night, with a surface ridge extending southward into our area. Skies will be clear, and winds should go light or calm, setting the stage for an ideal radiational cooling night. Temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing to the northwest of I-95, with lows in the 20s for many. We may be issuing Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings for Tuesday night into early Wednesday in some parts of our region. But this is what they said Sunday morning in the AFD Upper trough will swing across the northern Mid-Atlantic states Sunday night through Tuesday bringing chilly air for early Apr with highs 5 to 15 degrees cooler than normal. As strong Canadian high pressure settles in by Wednesday morning, expect cold temperatures with likelihood of frost and hard freeze. Since this is earlier than the median date of April 11 of the last Spring Freeze based on the latest 1991-2000 Climatology, no Frost and/or Freeze headlines are anticipated at this time

Huh... interesting

There won't be any frost/freeze products though from LWX

2015-2016 is acceptable

Pretty cool to see the moon out and distant lightning

SLGT risk for the region on 13z OTLK from SPC... 0/5/15

Maybe? Afternoon day 2 SPC disco .Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Along/south of a stalled surface front, ample diurnal heating amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and limited inhibition should promote widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic during the day. While midlevel flow will be modest, a subtle speed max glancing the area should contribute to around 25-30 kt of effective shear. This should promote a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and isolated, marginally severe hail. A relatively higher corridor of severe potential is possible over northern VA and vicinity, though confidence in storm coverage and overall intensity was too low to upgrade at this time.

*looks at the front* i don't mind the rain, we need that... I don't need 40s in Aprii... From the morning LWX AFD. KEY MESSAGE 3...A frontal passage midway through next week will have potential to bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. Broad ridging is forecast to start breaking down early this week allowing an upper-level trough to progress eastward to the north of the region. Strong high pressure is likely to be anchored over the north-central Atlantic Ocean acting as a block to the east and southeast. A front associated with the trough is forecast to drop into the region from the north/northwest bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Uncertainty remains high on shower/thunderstorm coverage along with overall rainfall amounts associated with the boundary. Depending on the position and strength of the high over the Atlantic Ocean, the front could become hung up over our region becoming a focus for the continued development of showers and thunderstorms. This solution would bring the most rain to the region, especially if the front stalls over the northern parts of our region. If the high is further offshore and weaker, the front will be able to progress further south leading to less precipitation totals and coverage as well as much cooler temperatures. The large model spread in frontal position is narrowing at least for Thursday, with increasing confidence the front will push to the south. However, it may try to lift back north at some point toward the end of the week. Temperature spread remains large (between 40 and 85 degrees for highs) by the end of the week. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with the frontal passage Wednesday may be tempered due to the lack stronger upper-level lift, but there may be enough instability and shear to allow for some stronger/organized thunderstorms.

Do not want - the temperatures, not the rain. Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 456 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 DCZ001-290000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 456 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. .WEDNESDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .THURSDAY...Rain likely. Much cooler with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .FRIDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Get these 30s and 20s WCs outta here

If its going to be 90+ degrees... there better be a chance of storms too If its -10F... better be snowing. -10F and sunny skies can gtfo