yoda

Ravens and Eagles trade https://www.profootballrumors.com/2025/11/eagles-trade-for-ravens-cb-jaire-alexander#ref=home

DCA: +1.0 NYC: +0.8 BOS: +0.6 ORD: +0.4 ATL: +1.3 IAH: +1.9 DEN: +2.2 PHX: +2.4 SEA: +0.7

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/breaking-news/article/ravens-fined-100k-by-nfl-for-violating-injury-report-policy-regarding-lamar-jacksons-week-8-status-175454372.html

Daily record for that day

Pretty decent line forming west of EZF

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may occur from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper low over eastern TN is beginning to eject northeast, partly in response to an upstream speed max digging southeast across the northern High Plains. This lead low will advance into WV by 18z before moving into upstate NY by the end of the period. Favorable high-level diffluence/large-scale ascent will encourage a surface low to be drawn north-northwest across the Middle Atlantic to a position near the MD/PA border by mid day. This track will permit higher theta-e air mass to overspread eastern VA/Delmarva into southeast PA such that buoyancy will become supportive of deep convection. Early-day shear will prove strongest across the Middle Atlantic as LLJ will be focused across eastern MD into central PA. LLJ will shift quickly north into NY by 18z along with more focused low-level warm advection. Prior to this, forecast soundings exhibit strongly sheared environment with adequate instability for thunderstorms. While the maximum SBCAPE should peak near 500-600 J/kg, a few robust updrafts are possible given the strength of the wind fields. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms, possibly supercells, may generate damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Greatest risk is between sunrise and 21z. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 10/30/2025

Morning LWX and SPC discussion mentioned a few supercells possible with brief tornado threat The southern low will serve as the triple point, eventually merging with the western low and tracking toward southern Pennsylvania this afternoon. It will draw a warmer and more moist airmass northward with it, representing the area with the highest risk of severe weather. So far, nothing on region radar suggests the development of deeper/more organized convection. But this threat will be worth watching through the morning hours as the airmass rapidly changes. Most HREF parameters have increased compared to 24 hours ago in suggesting thunderstorm/severe weather potential. Damaging winds will be the main threat given strong wind fields/shear aloft, but there could also be a brief tornado risk near the triple point. The main time window seems to be between 5 AM and 1 PM. Some guidance indicates a trailing line of convection that crosses during the afternoon hours with the first front/wind shift, but it`s not clear how much this can organize as the better low level wind fields may have already passed. In terms of rainfall, some localized amounts over 1 inch have been observed. Overall heavier elements are localized and very fast moving, so the short term flooding risk seems low. Will have to continue to monitor this threat though, as locations that end up in the 2-3 inch bin could see some minor high water issues. Most locations should end up in the 60s today as there should be breaks of sun this afternoon, with some places along the I-95 corridor potentially near 70.

Well he did post pictures of where he was stationed already

Josh has instruments staged. https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983153842108907672 His latest tweet of where he is

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine, with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit, there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700- mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher, ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at 120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be a little generous based on the aircraft data. The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast, with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track, Melissa's core is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning, moving across the island and then approaching and moving over eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5 hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140 kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in 60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity aids. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning. 2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday. 3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the country. 4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.4N 76.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

The forecast advisory was out earlier

Still 140mph at 11... 953mb BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46723952/nfl-looking-ravens-handling-jackson-practice-participation

Less than an hour after the announcement that Jackson is out Sunday, the Ravens went from being a 6.5-point favorite over the Bears to a 1.5-point favorite, according to ESPN BET. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46720713/ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-hamstring-miss-3rd-straight

Oops https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/ravens-rule-out-lamar-jackson-admit-he-was-not-a-full-participant-in-fridays-practice

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Melissa is very nearly a hurricane. Data from both the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate the storm has become better organized, with a 20 n mi eyewall that has been coming an going. This structure has also been seen on radar images out of Kingston, Jamaica. Compared to last night, Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data indicates the tropical cyclone is much better aligned vertically, though some residual eastward tilt with height exists in the mid-levels. The peak flight level winds at 700 mb were up to 68 kt. Using a standard 0.9 adjustment factor to surface winds yields an intensity of 60 kt, but Melissa could become a hurricane at any time, as other satellite intensity estimates already support a higher value. The initial motion is crawling along to the west-northwest, estimated between aircraft fixes to be 285/1 kt. Now that the tropical cyclone has become better aligned vertically, it should increasingly feel the deep-layer steering, which has a slight south of due-west component from the latest ECMWF steering diagnostics. The spread in the model solutions even in the next 12-36 hours is higher than usual, with the AI models, Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) and ECMWF-AI (AIFS) on the south and western end of the guidance envelope showing a westward or even west-southwestward motion in the short-term, while the traditional dynamical aids (ECMWF, HAFS-A/B) show more of a west-northwestward drift towards Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours. Still though, nearly all of the reliable track guidance (discounting the GFS which has been an eastward outlier since the storm formed) shows Melissa making landfall in Jamaica sometime in the 60-72 hour time frame. During this time, a digging mid-latitude trough in the southeastern United States is expected to create a new weakness to the north of Melissa, which should result in the cyclone taking a sharp turn to the northeast. While the guidance is in good agreement on this general turn with relatively small across-track spread, there remains high along-track spread in the solutions, best highlighted by the Google DeepMind ensemble which shows a spread in possible locations in 96 h from still inland over Jamaica to northeast of Cuba in the southwestern Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is a touch south of the prior track for the first 24-48 hours, but converges on the prior track forecast thereafter. This is a little on the eastern side of the track guidance envelope, giving credence to the AI model solutions (GDMI, ECAI) which to date are the best preforming track guidance this hurricane season. Melissa seems to be shaking off the negative effects of westerly shear now that the storm is becoming better vertically aligned. Thus, it appears likely that a period of rapid intensification will occur as the storm moves slowly over very warm ocean waters (30-31C sea-surface temperatures) which is also over the highest oceanic heat content in the entire Atlantic basin, which will limit initial ocean upwelling under the slow moving storm. Similar to the previous cycles, roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that intensity yet given the track uncertainty, that remains a possibility. After 48 h, inner core processes (such as eyewall replacement cycles) could cause fluctuations in intensity, but Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct landfall for the island in since tropical cyclone record keeping has been made in the Atlantic Basin. Weakening is expected as Melissa moves over the high terrain of Jamaica and eastern Cuba, with further weakening expected thereafter as southwesterly vertical wind shear increases. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance, but closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, which has also been on of our best intensity guidance performers this year. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding, numerous landslides, extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along portions of the southern coast early next week. All preparations should be completed today. 2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula. 3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern regions. 4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 16.5N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.4N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.5N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 16.7N 77.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 17.9N 77.2W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1200Z 20.5N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 25.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Melissa is still trying to get organized. While the central pressure has fallen to 993 mb, the tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA aircraft shows that the 500-mb center is displaced about 20-25 n mi east-southeast of the surface center. The tilt is also present at the aircraft flight levels, with dropsondes released at the flight-level center missing the surface center and reporting 25-35 kt surface winds. In addition, the aircraft radar data and land-based radar data from Jamaica show that the cyclone has not yet been able to develop a persistent eyewall. Based mainly on the central pressure and satellite intensity estimates the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Although the initial motion is a bit uncertain, Melissa now appears to be moving slowly northwest with the initial motion 325/3 kt. A turn toward the west or west-northwest and a continued slow forward speed are expected in 12-24 h as low- to mid-level ridging builds to the north of the cyclone. This motion should continue through about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving into the southeastern United States and the southwestern Atlantic will break the ridge to the north, with Melissa expected to turn northward and eventually northeastward as it recurves into the westerlies. There remains a substantial spread in the guidance with respect to where the center of Melissa may pass in relation to Jamaica, with solutions ranging from the GFS passing near the eastern end of the island to the Canadian passing west of the island. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and shows the center passing over Jamaica just after 72 h. However, any motion north of the current forecast track could bring the center near or over Jamaica at almost any time between 24-72 h. After passing Jamaica, Melissa is likely to move near or over eastern Cuba, but which portion of eastern Cuba may be most affected remains uncertain at this time. While the westerly shear that has been affecting Melissa will not completely stop during the next 2-3 days, it is forecast to decrease to about 10-15 kt in 24 h or less. This should allow rapid development as the storm is located in a moist environment over very warm sea surface temperatures. The one short-term restraining factor is that Melissa's structure is not quite good enough yet to allow rapid intensification (RI), and thus it could be another 6-12 h before RI begins in earnest. The latest round of intensity guidance shows somewhat lower peak intensities than the previous advisory, mainly due to the models moving Melissa near or over Jamaica. However, the current forecast track keeps the center offshore for 72 h or more, and based on this the new intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance with a peak intensity of 135 kt. Despite the weaker guidance, there is still a possibility that Melissa could become a category 5 hurricane during the forecast period. After passing near or over Jamaica, the cyclone is forecast to weaken due to possible interaction with Cuba and increasing southwesterly shear as Melissa encounters the mid-latitude westerlies. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning late Saturday or Sunday, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next week. All preparations should be complete by late Saturday. 2. Haiti: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula. 3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern regions. 4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 16.5N 75.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.7N 75.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.8N 76.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 16.8N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 16.9N 77.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 17.4N 77.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 19.3N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 23.2N 73.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ053-054-057-250030- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0013.251025T0600Z-251025T1300Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-King George- 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Biggest impacts will be outside of city centers, as well as areas further inland from the shores of the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ055-056-505-506-526-527-250030- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0006.251025T0600Z-251025T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Stafford-Spotsylvania-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, and northern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

@EastCoast NPZ getting good rains

Like the term squeegee line lol... also since when did NWS utilize Nadocast? Afternoon disco from LWX SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A potent trough of low pressure will move into the northern/eastern Great Lakes Sunday morning while it`s associated cold front pushes east from the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, high pressure will reside off the southeast U.S coast leading to increased southerly flow across the region. With the tightened pressure gradient between the departing high and incoming front/trough of low pressure expect a windy end to the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are expected for most of the day as moisture steadily increases across the region. Mid and high level clouds will spread west to east from the Alleghenies Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Some filter breaks of sun will be observed early east of the I-81 corridor with any rain activity likely holding off until after sunset. 06Z/12Z CAMS have slowed a bit from previous model solutions. As it stands now, shower activity looks to develop west of the Alleghenies/I-81 corridor late Sunday afternoon before spreading east toward the metros late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Most guidance illustrates a frontal passage within the 2z-8z/10pm-4am window for areas east of I-81 and toward the I-95 metros. This is the time of greatest moisture surge and perhaps some subtle instability as the trough axis takes on a negative tilt. CAPE values look to remain less than 300 j/kg with bulk effective shear values running between 40-50 kts+. Forcing will be strong especially along the front. This will allow for both strong background winds and a strong wind field aloft to mix down to surface with any convective elements that form along the front. 06z/12z guidance continues to develop a line of gusty moderate to heavy showers that push from west to east across the area late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as well, especially west of I-95 where slightly better instability noted. SPC has expanded it`s Day 2 Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) to encompass the entire area Sunday afternoon. The main threat is damaging wind gusts although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given low level SRH 0-1km values around 100-200 m2/s2 and potential meso-low overhead. Both CSU, CIPS, and NSSL probabilities focus 5 to 15 percent probs for damaging winds as a squeegee line of gusty showers push through late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Nadocast has 2 percent probs over northern and central MD mainly covering the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning. Additional showers are possible through Monday morning behind the cold front as the negatively tilted upper-level trough passes through. This activity will likely be short-lived with dry air working back in as high pressure builds from the south Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Fwiw NOUS41 KLWX 171207 PNSLWX MDZ501-502-509-510-VAZ025>027-503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-180015- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 807 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY... Based on freezing temperatures last night into this morning, the growing season has been declared over for the following counties: In Maryland: Garrett and Allegany In Virginia: Highland, Rockingham, Augusta, and Shenandoah In West Virginia: Pendleton, Grant, Mineral, Hardy, and Hampshire As a result, no Frost/Freeze headlines will be issued for these areas until Spring 2026. $$ BELAK

SPC is monitoring Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front are forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley at the start of the period. This convection should have a negative impact on instability across the much of the moist sector during the day. In areas that are not impacted, weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from Georgia and the Carolinas into the central Appalachians. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely result in a severe threat. A potential for wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible. At this time, uncertainty is substantial as to exactly where the greatest severe potential will occur. As new runs come in, an upgrade to Slight may be needed. A mid-level low is forecast to move across the Northeast on Monday, as the associated trough moves into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of southern New England during the late morning and early afternoon before the front moves offshore.