yoda

If its going to be 90+ degrees... there better be a chance of storms too If its -10F... better be snowing. -10F and sunny skies can gtfo

Morning day 1 from SPC

Afternoon AFD from LWX Any low clouds or fog should burn off quickly tomorrow morning. Much warmer air will advect into the area tomorrow in southwesterly flow aloft, with 850 hPa temperatures surging to around 14-17 C. Strong daytime heating will lead to deep mixing, enabling temperatures to near record values for late March. Most of the forecast area should climb into the 80s, with some locations potentially even making it into the mid-upper 80s. A strong cold front will start to progress southward across PA during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the front during the mid-late afternoon hours. Further south, model soundings show signs of capping with a remnant elevated mixed layer moving in aloft. This should help to prevent the development of storms ahead of the front, which will keep conditions dry through nearly all of the day in our forecast area. The storms over PA will likely drift southeastward toward northern Maryland around or shortly after dark. As low- levels stabilize with loss of daytime heating, the trend should be for these storms to gradually weaken as they move into our forecast area after dark. The environment to our north tomorrow across PA looks very favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms, with a CAPE/shear parameter space capable of producing both supercells and bowing segments. If the timing/location of the front were to trend faster/further south, we could get storms in that type of environment prior to stabilization. And even if storms do move in after dark, they could still potentially produce severe hail, even if they`re elevated. Tomorrow is certainly a day to watch for severe thunderstorms, but as it stands now, it may be a near miss for most of the area, with the capping serving as a potential saving grace. As of now, SPC has northern Maryland and most of the eastern panhandle of West Virginia outlooked in a Slight Risk, and the rest of the area outlooked in a Marginal Risk. SPC also has far northwestern portions of the forecast in a sig hail outlook (indicating the potential for 2+" hailstones). That hints at the potential high ceiling for the severity of storms tomorrow, if they maintain their strength southward into our forecast area. As of now, the most likely timing for storms looks to be between 7 PM and Midnight, with remnant showers moving southward along with the cold front through the entire forecast area later during the overnight hours. Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind the cold front on Monday. Conditions will dry out and temperatures will be much cooler (but near normal), with highs for most in the 50s and lower 60s (40s mountains). Winds will gust to around 25-35 mph out of the northwest

Probably to let us know maybe, but they saw we already knew? Just guessing

Maybe someone in his family?

Sun peeking out here now

Dewpoints have reached the lower 60s at DCA and IAD as of 9am

For areas around here, I haven't seen higher probs that I recall

The Force is with me. And I'm a robot

Um... 80/60 tor probs in the watch >95/70 wind probs

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0066.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 66 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central North Carolina Central Virginia * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms will sweep across the watch area through the morning hours, posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Strong tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of White Sulphur Springs WV to 35 miles south southwest of Southern Pines NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

No LWX CWA counties in the newly issued Tornado Watch

Tornado Watch up for the above MCD area... isolated significant gusts to 85mph in the watch

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0268.html Mesoscale Discussion 0268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central Virginia into central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161240Z - 161445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will gradually increase into parts of central North Carolina and Virginia through the morning into this afternoon. A watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A remnant QLCS is emerging east of the Appalachians, where it is showing some early signs of re-intensification. Farther east, a disorganized band of thunderstorms is also evolving over parts of western VA into NC. While overall convective evolution is not clear, these storms will continue spreading eastward into a destabilizing air mass (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Despite the somewhat limited buoyancy, strong low/deep-layer shear characterized by clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (see GSO 12Z sounding) will favor a mix of organized line segments and supercells, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes (some potentially strong). A watch issuance is likely for this activity. ..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35018062 36058067 37938001 38327941 38387851 38157795 37767769 37037785 35917834 35137889 34707944 34798025 35018062 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Tornado Watch coming soon for C VA into C NC

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Southeast States... An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley, with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. An active line of thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western SC/NC/VA. Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line. Clusters of thunderstorms have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and strongly sheared environment. These storms will also pose a severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale ascent arrives. ...Mid Atlantic States into NY... Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE values will be slightly lower. Nevertheless, intense low and mid level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening. Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be present. In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over VA/MD. The initial storms will remove most of the low-level moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms after dark. This threat could spread northeastward into eastern PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England. ..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026

Still a hold with everything on the 1300z SPC OTLK... 15 tor/5 hail/ 60 wind

Morning discussion from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area Monday, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant damaging winds and tornadoes. A possibly high-impact severe weather event may unfold across the Mid-Atlantic region today, especially during the afternoon to evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Moderate Risk (Level 4 out of 5) area which extends from east of the Blue Ridge Mountains to the Chesapeake Bay. The one exception to this is northeastern Maryland which is in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) given the cooler bay waters could weaken approaching convection. The early morning surface analysis depicts a stout cyclone racing across northern Indiana which is accompanied by a squall line which has jumped out ahead of the cold front. Closer to the local area, a wavy frontal zone arcs from just south of St. Marys County westward across Richmond and back into southern West Virginia. While surface wind vectors are out of the east, the primarly low-level steering flow is from the south. Light overrunning showers continue to lift northward through the region. The combination of weak forcing and ample low-level stability is yielding rather scant rainfall totals, generally averaging under 0.10 inches. Otherwise, low stratus will remain a fixture in the early morning forecast which comes with temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. Ample poleward flow within the warm conveyor belt should help push this warm front north of the Mason-Dixon Line by just after daybreak. While the 00Z IAD sounding is now outdated, its vertical wind profile indicates precisely why the severe threat has a high ceiling today. The 0-6 km wind fields were characterized by substantial cyclonic turning of the winds with height, coupled with surface backed flow. In the net, this sounding yielded a 0-1 km storm-relative helicity of 506 m2/s2 which is off the charts. However, the profile lacked any instability, particularly headed toward the more stable overnight hours. Despite only being 12 to 18 hours out, the 00Z high-resolution model suite continues to show timing and evolution differences. There are a couple of areas to keep a close eye on: (1) The squall line racing across eastern Kentucky/Ohio right now (331 AM) and (2) The low stratus deck in place. In terms of recovery, this low cloud deck will need to erode to allow the 500 to 750 J/kg of surface-based CAPE to materialize. All signs point toward gradual erosion of these stratus clouds, but it may take until after the noon hour. Even then, these could just be breaks in the clouds. Any additional insolation through the day will help increase instability in the presence of substantial vertical shear (0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots). The other aspect of the forecast references the upstream squall line. How long this holds on and its cirrus canopy overspreading the region will also play some roles in how convective development evolves. With the degree of deep-layer shear in place, any of the pre- frontal discrete cells will pose a risk of becoming a supercell. These would be most conducive to producing a tornado, particularly if the enlarged 0-1 km and 0-3 km hodographs hold as true as forecast soundings depict. However, some of the high-resolution guidance show a slew of cells firing up at once which would favor more competition amongst them. This would diminish the tornado risk as multicell convection dominates. At the same time, another squall line is likely to form off the higher terrain this afternoon. While the vertical shear vector does not align perpendicular to the forming line, enough angle between the two should favor evolution into a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). These are prone to producing spin up tornadoes along any kinks in the line. Where this line bows out is where the 70 to 80 mph wind gust possibliity will be maximized. All of this slides eastward at a fairly hefty speed, perhaps 40 to 50 mph. Severe convection is expected to near the I-95 corridor during the evening rush hour before exiting the Chesapeake Bay by the early/mid evening hours. Some weakening is possible east of I-95 as the system begins to ingest the colder Chesapeake Bay waters. Outside of convection, conditions will be gusty today as a deep surface low tracks across the Great Lakes. Strengthening southerly flow may gust to 30 to 40 mph, with gusts closer to 50 mph in the mountains. Additionally, this also could occur in northeastern Maryland given this region stays in the warm sector longer and perhaps free of convection. Wind Advisories are in place across these areas which may see 50 mph gusts outside of any convection. Eventually a powerful cold front will usher in a cold and blustery air mass to the region. Gusts may be strong enough in the mountains to support additional Wind Advisories. All and all, ensure everyone has multiple ways to receive hazardous weather information from the National Weather Service. When it comes to Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, know where your safe place is and remain there until the storm has moved through and alerts have ended.

True... but the text posted above also mentions potential for strong long track tornadoes

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond. At the same time, it appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard. It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this evening through the overnight hours. Models suggest that this will eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage of the trough and trailing cold front. The cold front may clear all the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday. ...Atlantic Seaboard... Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard. By early this afternoon, it appears that 60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North Carolina and Virginia. In advance of a pre-frontal squall line, which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm development fairly early in the day. The extent to which this may impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains unclear. Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front. Even so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic. In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear, including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes. Barring much interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the storm motions. Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to produce widespread damaging wind gusts. Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the southern Atlantic coast. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026

We are still a go per SPC new Day 1

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/