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Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-141000- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Wind Advisories are in effect for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains through tonight. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible, which could lead to isolated wind damage and power outages. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible on Monday, some of which could produce significant damage in spots, particularly east of the Blue Ridge. Other severe hazards are possible as well. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-141000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Wind gusts could approach gale-force over the waters this afternoon into the evening, particularly closer to shore. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible on Monday, some of which could produce significant damage in spots, particularly south of I-70. Other severe hazards are possible as well.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast. Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z. There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA. Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Oh okay then

LWX already talking it up for Monday (this morning AFD) KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will arrive Monday, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms. A strong cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across the western Great Lakes will cross the area Monday. Better moisture recovery is expected ahead of this front compared to the one tonight which will result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Given favorable wind speeds aloft and modest instability for mid-March, there is a noteworthy threat for severe weather. The storm mode looks mostly linear this time with a QLCS of sorts favored in nearly all extended guidance. While the kinematics look a lot stronger with this next system, there is still a high degree of uncertainty with the thermodynamic environment and the exact timing of the frontal passage with recent trends showing an earlier frontal passage prior to peak diurnal heating. SPC has a 15% contour on Day 4, which is not super common in the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous AI and ML guidance continue to paint a moderate to high end ceiling for damaging winds with this frontal passage on Monday as well. Regardless of severe weather, strong winds will accompany this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment

Afternoon AFD from LWX on the threat KEY MESSAGE 3...Another strong cold front will arrive early next week, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms. A warm front will lift toward the area Sunday ahead of a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes. Most of the day should remain dry, but showers will likely move into the area Sunday night. Increasing southeast to south winds will keep temperatures above normal. A strong cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across the western Great Lks will cross the area Monday. Better moisture recovery is expected ahead of this front compared to the one Friday night to result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Model trends during the past 24 hrs have shown lower pressure values locally across the area, stronger wind speeds aloft, and better destabilization resulting in an increasing threat for severe weather. The storm mode looks mostly linear this time as opposed to supercells, but the magnitude of the 850-500 mb winds is 20-30 kt stronger than it was yesterday (Wednesday). While the kinematics look a lot stronger with this next system, there is still a high degree of uncertainty with the thermodynamic environment and the exact timing of the frontal passage with recent trends showing an earlier frontal passage prior to peak diurnal heating. Regardless of severe weather, strong winds will accompany this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment.

DCA was 75 at 5am lol

They reported at least 0.1" per @WxUSAF

I think i see a 67 as the highest temp you posted. I think DCA was near 80 after midnight lol

You'll have to ask Randy about that

Record obliterated

@Nomz sorry bud... hope you have water with that salt

*gives side eye*

Trained spotter reports 1.3" in Owings Mills as of 137pm

Is that the same NWS Employee who reported 0.2" at 1215pm in Herndon? If so... thats basically reporting rates of nearly an inch per hour lol

Per NWS Employees: 0.5" 1 N Tysons Corner at 115pm 1.0" 1 NNE Herndon at 125pm

Uh oh lol

To compare, at 5am DCA was 75 degrees. 6am 65 degrees. Add another to the list you posted @MN Transplant

1pm official DCA OB - 34 -SN WCI 25

Well?

Must be an abnormal day

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys... An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning. While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.

Tornado Watch up out for our NW parts of CWA