Dunkman
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Everything posted by Dunkman
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I just can't believe that it's a lack of moisture that's going to do us in. What a slap in the face after suffering through the wettest start of the year ever.
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You know if it ends up too warm and we get a lot of white rain I can live with that. It's what you'd expect from this pattern. If the precip fizzles out after every storm for months has over performed that's going to be really annoying.
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I mean of course a good Euro would bring me back but after what I've seen so far today I'm out. The NAM and the GFS with no ensemble support against the world isn't really where I want to be 2 days out. Definitely the most exciting and important suite of model runs this winter for NC, it's a shame it's mostly flopped.
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I'm pretty excited about getting NAMed at least once this year. It's a big step forward!
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I'm happy to see the 60s will be back for the start of Fab Feb!
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How long do you think it'll be before we keep reliving Sandy in painstaking detail every time there's a hurricane? I'm setting the o/u at 2050.
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With every post I've seen saying a model is going west the last 2 days it should be hitting Texas by now.
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Yeah and honestly it seems like the NHC was maybe a little late with the hurricane watches. I really think the wind radii expanding out relatively rapidly is a pretty big concern. I know they didn't go with the actual reading but I can't say I ever remember a dropsonde measuring 200+ at the surface before. Anyone else?
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This only being warm enough to rain for the 12 hours it's actually precipitating thing is some bs
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It's all zr right now I don't think you're missing out
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Lol thanks. I need to sleep probably.
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Sure
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There's actually a pretty substantial stripe of ZR on the RGEM from the Triad and points ENE.
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There were some people on the edges of the transition zones in which the NAM seemed to give the most accurate forecast but as a whole it was pretty bad for this event compared to the other guidance.
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Probably location dependent but in general temps are supposed to get better as the night goes on and into the morning hours.
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Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living.
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My point and click has me at 9-16 now. I'd take 9 in a heartbeat and be thrilled about it, they sure are optimistic at RAH tonight.
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Our WSW doesn't even start until 1am. Isn't that what's supposed to happen?
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It's fine that's just the column cooling down. Has nothing to do with the warm nose that may/will push in later.
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Thanks, yeah I hope so. Takes a perfect setup for us to stay snow when the QPF approaches an inch or more and this is not that. I'll be happy to take our usual this early in the season.
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Here's the number guesses instead of ranges. I haven't had a foot at my house since I bought it in 2006. Not expecting it this time either but it's nice to see.
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We'll see what ends up happening but I was wondering if the second round may start showing back up on some models. It's the kind of thing I recall showing up very late in the modeling more than once in the past.
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I remember a few years ago we had a basically all sleet storm. It was kind of amazing in its own way. We had something absurd like 5" of sleet but the really crazy thing was the foot deep sleet drift on my back deck where it had rolled down the roof and piled up. I don't remember how long exactly but it took forever for it to melt. Feels like it may be time for another one of those. Also instead of snow cream we tried to make snow icees from the sleet. Do not recommend. Maybe get some fruit flavored syrup instead of vanilla/sugar/milk or something.
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Oh we're all going to be in here for this one I think!
