wncsnow
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Southeast Sanitarium - Winter 23/24 Edition
wncsnow replied to eyewall's topic in Southeastern States
Amazing how a perfect pattern progged by ensembles and Weeklies can come completely undone in a few days. We are now looking at a warm last week of February due to no -NAO and the PNA is about to flip to- while the MJO is not wanting to leave phase 7. It's about time to cue up the we need a March 93 miracle posts.. -
Modeling has gotten worse than ever. Just look at the differences in 48 hours. F
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It does look like parts TN will get a couple inches out of this. Thanks northern stream.
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Unless the models shift drastically, this threat is about done for.
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With as accurate as the Weeklies have been, now I expect cold and snowy
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I just don't know what it will take for us to get a snowstorm.
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We can't buy a true Miller A gulf low storm track anymore. As @BooneWX said, we are seeing La Nina tendencies still this winter.
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The UK looks different than the GFS. It has a stronger cold push around Friday night and some moisture gathering in Arkansas around Saturday.
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You also have another piece of energy in the lake inhibited the cold air from reaching us
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This isn't going to work. The northern energy is in northern VA and too far in front of the southern piece.
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If it keeps trending taller it could dig enough for a phase or partial phase. I don't think this works with just northern or southern dominate energy.
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You can see that northern energy on the GFS. Much stronger than a couple days ago
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The ICON shows the stronger northern stream
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The northern stream is starting to dominate the southern energy on modeling. That squashes it even though it's colder. We need a phase for us Western NC folks.
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GFS was very close and definitely a good step as Larry said.
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I think the MJO is playing a bigger role than some like to think. It has been in general unfavorable phases this winter.
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The low in the lakes has been a persistent issue on the GFS
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In actual analysis, the 18Z GFS is too warm with less of a cold push than the Euro
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If you have an issue feel free to PM me. You are cluttering up the thread
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What exactly are you adding?
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I'm just being realistic. Temps as progged are 32-36
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That's 10-1 this won't be 10-1 if it's snow at all
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I heard it wasn't even 70 in Athens so it can't be 74 in McDowell
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That was the perfect blend almost. The cold pressed just enough and the storm track was ideal
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It was a weenie run
