HRRR is almost definitely overdone but -20 to -30 wind chills are possible in Boone. Above 5K there could be -50 or worse. It will be interesting to see how low it goes compared to the guidance.
The fact we can't develop a superior computer weather model is pathetic. Even after multiple upgrades it still falls behind the Euro and lately the UK and Canadian too. The fact that many local weather stations and apps go off of GFS data is a sham.