wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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It's slowed down a bit too
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This might be a good run for the first wave unless it shears out
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Looks like the GFS will come in further south this run
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Watch the clipper system system on Friday. It's looking juicier on models
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1969 had one of the biggest snowstorms on record here in the foothills
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And that 2009/10 winter set the standard for modern east coast winters with that-NAO.
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This is more concerning to me. The PNA is only between 0 and +1. I would much rather see it +2.
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We really need the -NAO to drop to -2 or lower for it to dominate the storm track. Right now it's progged to drop to -1.75 or so before slowly rising in the middle of January.
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I don't think its time to give up hope but its undeniable that the trends have been very poor the past 24-36 hours. The means on all the globals have decreased dramatically. The QPF on the means have decreased dramatically.
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Those odds are not looking good now
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Texas becomes a glacier according to 12z euro.
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Central VA gets smoked with snow this run
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Euro is rain/cutter for system 1
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I think I'm going to start telling people this as well
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Euro is stuck on 54 on pivotalwx
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The GEFS has very little snow on its mean through 10 days. Slightly less than 6Z and 0Z.
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One thing I have noticed on multiple models is our southern stream energy being sheared out as it approached us. The UK looked like a big hit on the first wave but shears out the energy. Other models are doing this as well.
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We do get a winter storm on the 13th ion the GFS
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It shows quite a bit of sleet and ZR in WNC and parts of NE GA and the upstate.
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The air is colder and drier in front of the system and screams ice potential for CAD areas
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GFS is going to look a little different this run for the first storm
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That is what's concerning me the most. We all know the op runs will be all over the place but for the ensembles to back off that much in a few days is not a good sign.
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10th. The first two threats are now rain on the GFS.
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Our snow mean is vanishing quickly.
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The ensemble snow mean has dropped significantly again. It was up near 6 inches now it's 2.5.
