Operational runs are starting to show the relaxation period being extended and the trough being centered too far NE. Cold temperatures have backed off some too.
Ensembles showed cold coming all last season in the long range while the ops showed the Ridge hanging out. We all know which one won. Hopefully we actually see a true winter pattern for the first time since January 2022.
Yeah I noticed that cold shot is looking pretty weak now. Mostly just a big low and lots of wind. I don't know if we get a hard freeze before Thanksgiving.
Had a light frost last night at 35. May not make it out of the 40s tomorrow with an inch or more of rain. Long range looks interesting for cold air and freezes. Could be some NWFS in the mountains too.