wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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According to the NHC, Helene is in the 90% for storm size. So it's big
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Totals keep going up from WPC
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Just had a July type storm move through. .83 on the day so far. Over an inch on the week.
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These big storms moving through are not good with the Precursor and hurricane coming.
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Euro moving the Precursor rain closer to the escarpment (or over most of SWNC) each run
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UKMET
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The inland flooding could be devastating with the PRE and Helene combo. Southern Appalachian areas could see as much impact as Florida with flash flooding, mud slides, and high winds in the higher elevations. Some areas along the Blue Ridge could easily see 12-16" of rain with orographic uplift with the SE flow
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This is the AI euro model
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Not good when an ensemble Mean is showing 7+ inches of rain across the area...
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That upper low keeps shifting east moving the boundary with it. It makes sense for it to be over or near the Apps/Blue Ridge unfortunately
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Precursor rain keeps moving east on models.
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Bad thing is that's probably underdone too for upslope areas. I say 12-14" is likely unless the track changes drastically and the Precursor event totally misses us.
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Early map from GSP
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I don't see how we can escape major flooding this time. Probably the worst since 2004 with Frances and Ivan for the central and northern foothills and mountains
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12Z ICON is another big hit
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12Z ICON is about 15 mb lower than 6Z at landfall
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UK is west of 12Z
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I have noticed this for the last day or 2. The Canadian shows something even more drastic with the PRE and hurricane combo.
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I'm at .32 already today and along the Blue Ridge some places are closer to 1.5-2
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Torrential rain on the drive home. It's not what you want to see with what's possibly coming.
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I think the Euro is way too weak on intensity so that track could be really devastating. Verbatim it shows 8-12 inches on the escarpment and that would likely be underdone. Also shows gusts up to 45.
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Euro also showing the predecessor rain event. This is all before the system makes landfall
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GFS is pretty much the worse scenario for the southern Apps and Blue Ridge for significant flash flooding, only saving grace is how quickly it moves/dissipates . I'm also looking at some signs of a predecessor rain event somewhere in GA, TN, NC or Alabama. Models are hinting at this too.
