wncsnow

The lakes not being totally frozen helps the fetch coming in too. Smokies may be the jackpot area with the orientation of the flow. Hopefully west Asheville will get some good squalls while I'm at work Friday.

It's a good run of the EPS and with could lead to some overrunning threats with the position of the trough.

You can see the ridge forming late in the period on the Op Euro.

Think that was the perfect example of what blocking can do when all the chess pieces are in the perfect spots.

This is a good article on it with some meteorological background. Seems like the NAO was deeply negative. https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2016/03/hump-day-javu-the-three-wednesday-snows-of-march-1960/

The 1960 winter is what all my grandparents talked about when they were here and aunts and uncles talk about still to this day. Snow drifts 8 to 10 feet high. Roads impassable for weeks to months. It's the standard for WNC and it all fell within 5 or 6 weeks pretty much in February and March. There were a few big (18 inch type) storms, but mostly 8-12 inch type storms repeating every 5 to 10 days (3 Wednesdays in a row at one point). I think 4 or 5 were gulf lows and there were lots of clippers and NWFS too. I think Boone had 6 feet or more in 6 weeks. Some pictures here https://www.citizen-times.com/picture-gallery/life/2019/12/16/historic-photos-1960-snowstorm-asheville-and-western-north-carolina/2665218001/

Some interesting winters there. 1960 was the snowiest stretch in modern history for WNC where it basically snowed every week for a month or more and the national guard had to get called in to save mountain folks. 27 inches of snow fell at the Asheville airport in the month of March alone (much more in the mountains). 2013 was one of the least snowy winters here the last 20 years with just a trace of snow and 1/2 of sleet and 1/10 freezing rain the only measurable winter precip imby and if I recall most of NC and SC saw below average snowfall that winter. Not sure about the other winters but thats a big range of options already.

While that's true, the ridge will hopefully continue moving east past the 20th and setup in a better spot.

I think areas like Beech, Roan, Wolf, and places in the Smokies can go over 6 inches with this setup. Even downtown Asheville should get half an inch to an inch.

That area usually only gets an inch or 2 at best unless the streamers setup in that area.

Lots of freezing fog in Buncombe today from Ridgecrest to East Asheville

29 here.

Yea Saturday is definitely looking like a visit Roan Mtn type of day

Glad you all are gonna cash in some. It's about time.

If the pattern repeats we are screwed. Only hope will be flow snow for you all.

The weeklies have been pretty awful this year.

Euro shows thunderstorms. GFS has ice from 40 north. Long range is warm warm warm

The storm is more likely to produce severe than snow or ice.

What do you think happens when we have stratospheric warming events? It disrupts the polar vortex and all the cold built up in the arctic and allows it to move south. It may not have a bearing on what will have in February or March but it does for January.

Of course there isn't an "allowance" but if you think that didn't have any bearing on the pattern the past week weeks you haven't been paying attention. The bomb low track thorough the Midwest causing the severe cold also broke down the block that formed totally resetting the pattern. Cold builds up and releases.

That cold snap we had around Christmas caused more harm to the overall pattern than good. All it did was exhaust the cold source for a few weeks or more. There is some cold air but nothing like back in December.

Well the Euro does give you a good NWFS again but nothing for foothills.

GFS and Canadian= fail

It does feel a bit more winterlike this morning. First night below freezing in a week.

If we get blanked hopefully there is a robust NW flow or elevation dependent snow for me to chase at least. Haven't even had that this winter.