ncskywarn

This would be ugly.

Started snowing in Western Cary, Carpenter area about 10-15 minutes ago. Small flakes but it is snowing.

To make it even more laughable Wake County gets more snow on that map then anywhere else in the United States or Canada.

Someone on Southern Weather said that the HRRR uses the same algorithm that the RAP uses. So that really is not unexpected or surprising.

Even is the models trend back with more QPF do you really think that Western Wake County will only be in the 1-2 inch range?

WAR flexed just enough to slow down the NS and allow the SS to catch up just a little.

Not necessarily because that would cause WAA mixing issues and a lot of ice. That many of us don't want to see.

RDU SERF

Just changed over to all snow now.

Still rain/snow mix Cary Park area of West Cary.

Not sure if this has been posted before but Interesting read. https://observer.com/2019/08/weather-forecast-noaa-prediction-models-accuracy/

FYI now a hurricane: : ...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS... 2:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28 Location: 18.3°N 65.0°W Moving: NW at 13 mph Min pressure: 997 mb Max sustained: 75 mph

Big part of it was the fact the the eye reformed something like 75 miles further to the North of the old center today.

Now TD 3. but not forecasted to become a TS. 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222032 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Deep convection has increased in association with the small low pressure area we have been monitoring near the Bahamas. Animation of visible satellite images and scatterometer data indicate that a closed low-level circulation formed today, and therefore advisories are being initiated on the system. Conventional surface observations along with the scatterometer measurements indicate that the maximum sustained winds in the cyclone are near 25 kt. The system is in a marginally favorable environment for strengthening, as a special 1800 UTC sounding taken by the National Weather Service Forecast Office here in Miami showed a layer of dry air near the 700 mb level. The global models do not intensify the system, and only a slight increase in strength appears likely. In 36 to 48 hours, the models indicate that this system will be absorbed by a frontal trough near the U.S. east coast. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/11 kt. Over the next day or so, the tropical cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge, with the center of the depression expected to remain offshore of the Florida east coast and the southeastern United States until dissipation. The official track forecast follows a small consensus of the only models that were able to follow the center of the depression in the predicted fields. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 25.6N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 27.2N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 30.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 33.7N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

It went operational as of the 12Z run today.- (12 Jun 2019) The operational GFS has been upgraded to the FV3 core as of this morning's 12z run.

(12 Jun 2019) The operational GFS has been upgraded to the FV3 core as of this morning's 12z run.

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

We have Andrea 000 ABNT20 KNHC 202149 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 550 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda has developed a well-defined center with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. A special advisory will be issued on Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi

Tornado Watch WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 88/91 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 428 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 NCC001-007-037-057-063-067-077-081-085-093-105-123-125-135-145- 151-153-165-167-183-200000- /O.EXT.KRAH.TO.A.0088.000000T0000Z-190420T0000Z/ TORNADO WATCH 88, PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON, IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 20 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALAMANCE ANSON CHATHAM DAVIDSON DURHAM FORSYTH GRANVILLE GUILFORD HARNETT HOKE LEE MONTGOMERY MOORE ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND SCOTLAND STANLY WAKE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ALBEMARLE, ANDERSON CREEK, ANGIER, ANTIOCH, ARCHDALE, ASHEBORO, ASHLEY HEIGHTS, BADIN LAKE, BETHESDA, BISCOE, BURLINGTON, BUSHY FORK, BUTNER, BYNUM, CARRBORO, CARY, CHAPEL HILL, CONCORD, CREEDMOOR, CUMNOCK, DUNCAN, DUNN, DURHAM, EAGLE SPRINGS, EAST ROCKINGHAM, ELDORADO, ERWIN, GRAHAM, GREENSBORO, GUM SPRINGS, HAMLET, HASTY, HIGH POINT, LAKE TOWNSEND, LAUREL HILL, LAURINBURG, LEXINGTON, LILLINGTON, MONCURE, MOUNT GILEAD, OXFORD, PEKIN, PFAFFTOWN, PINEHURST, PITTSBORO, PLYLER, POLKTON, RAEFORD, RALEIGH, RESEARCH TRIANGLE, ROCKFISH, ROCKINGHAM, ROXBORO, SANFORD, SEVEN LAKES, SILER CITY, SILVER CITY, SOUTHERN PINES, STANLEYVILLE, SURL, THOMASVILLE, TIMBERLAKE, TRAMWAY, TRINITY, TROY, ULAH, WADESBORO, AND WINSTON-SALEM. $$

Lee County has been removed from the warning.

Greg Fishel announcement http://wr.al/1EK7j

06Z GFS significantly further South compaired to 00Z at hour 96. Edit: Ends up about the same place though at hour 120. By hour 150 the low ends up further North over the NC sounds just West of Hatteras. compaired to off the coast East of the NC/SC border a lot more rain then snow for a lot of people.

Smart idea