Superstorm93

I do agree that overall storm mode is still somewhat questionable for tomorrow, but the magnitude of effective shear we have available is pretty astounding. Even if things congeal a little too quickly during the course of the afternoon, we'll definitely have to watch for embedded strong mesocyclones. Just the thought of rain-wrapped tors with already poor visibility is pretty unnerving. (The overlay feature on weathernerds is pretty awesome by the way)

Some lingering questions about the tornado risk remain due in part to some conditional factors yet to occur. However, it appears the tornado risk may maximize in 2 corridors. First, a diurnally focused tornado risk (primarily supercellular) across northern LA into far southern AR vicinity between 3-9pm. A second area of potential concern may focus from northeast LA near the MS River east-northeast across central and into parts of northeast/east MS during the evening into the overnight. A mix mode of supercell/QLCS or hybridization of the two within a convective line are possible. Along with damaging gusts, strong tornadoes may also occur with a few of the most intense storms. While the pre-frontal, cellular convection should diminish overnight, a semi-organized band of storms -- with embedded rotating updrafts and continued severe/tornado potential -- will move across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period.

The outer bands will already be causing tremendous amounts of flash flooding before the center even gets to the islands. Massive life-threatening mud slide threat here

Its just insane how deep convection is around the center

Just insane. This is a temp you'd usually see in much larger eyes

Maria is getting close to beating Dean/Mitch with that extrap pressure. Next mission wont be in the storm for another two hours or so.

Looks like they were about to head into the SE quad and made a quick turn... Wish we had a NOAA Tail Doppler in there

I'm not really sure what the actual intensity would be after seeing that sonde. A few have malfunctioned, but definitely need more data here. Could be at least 160 knots now.

Instantaneous That was the SW eyewall. Winds might be stronger.

Sub 910mb on the latest extrap pass

There is a TDWR for San Juan

Its going to be really close. I think they'll be able to get a sliver of the NE eyewall.

NHC went with 925 mb for the 8pm. Still no VDM

The sonde was thrown around the eye just like in Felix. Mean winds in the lowest 150 meters was also 153 knots. The NE quad could be insane.

190mph just above the surface

That CDO is still amazing. Looks right about on par with the best of the Atlantic storms.

I wold wait for the dropsonde. Had a flagged 175 mph SFMR obs

Incredible deepening. Down 24 mb from the 5pm estimate