Superstorm93

I'd be surprised shocked if recon did not find winds around 160 mph with pressures in the 940's

Yup. Everyone thought it was going to complete the EWRC, then the eyewall(s) melded together and the storm strengthened even further.

Some concentric bands developing. Going to take some time before they can work inwards.

Curios to see if we'll lose the radar on Martinique

No. That's the GOES 16 link

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/goesrPG/odt15L.html

One for the books Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and this featured has recently become better defined in visible and infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h. From 72-120 h, land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period.

000 URNT12 KNHC 181453 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152017 A. 18/14:43:30Z B. 14 deg 39 min N 060 deg 01 min W C. 700 mb 2758 m D. 104 kt E. 035 deg 7 nm F. 137 deg 115 kt G. 036 deg 8 nm H. 961 mb I. 11 C / 3056 m J. 16 C / 3041 m K. 10 C / NA L. OPEN SW M. C10 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 0215A MARIA OB 17 MAX FL WIND 115 KT 036 / 8 NM 14:41:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 31 KT ;

New sonde 120mph at the surface and 150 just above the boundary layer

This would be incredibly bad Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that Maria is currently experiencing light to moderate southwesterly shear. However, all indications are that the shear should diminish during the next 24-48 h, which should allow steady to rapid strengthening. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h. Based on this, the intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h. Late in the forecast period, a combination of land interaction and increasing shear should cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast is near the upper edge of the guidance in best overall agreement with the HWRF. INIT 18/0300Z 14.2N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.7N 59.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.4N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.9N 63.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 18.5N 67.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 96H 22/0000Z 20.0N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 23/0000Z 22.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

Maria up to 75 knots per ATCF

MW pass nailed the center. Looks like a pretty tight core, as recon showed as well.

ATCF is up to 65 knots for Maria. I could see how winds are a bit higher in the NE quad.

Very nice pattern in the LR Could be a start to another active end to the month.

All Day 7 risks so far... http://tweetimgs.pmarshwx.com/pmarshwx/20160421/20160421022044.png

Looks like we're going to be busy again soon..

Maybe some more action next week.